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Developing a programme for the implementation of the 2008 SNA & supporting Statistics

Oliver ChinganyaOliver Chinganya

Statistical Capacity BuildingStatistical Capacity Building

Stats Dept. African Dev. Stats Dept. African Dev. Bank Bank

Seminar on the Seminar on the Implementation of 2008 SNA Implementation of 2008 SNA

Kampala Dec 10-11, 2013Kampala Dec 10-11, 2013

OutlineOutline

• Introduction• Key findings• GDP revisions• Base years• Bank Program to support countries• Way Forward

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Concerns were raised in the international press about the quality of statistics in Africa – particularly GDP estimates

The impression left by this bad publicity was that African statistics are inherently unreliable and that foreign investors are in danger of being seriously misled about the true size and growth of African economies.

IntroductionIntroduction

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The concerns needs to be addressed to put the record

straight. Especially at the critical time when Africa is

witnessing a renaissance of its economic benefits.

IntroductionIntroduction

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But are Africa’s statistics as bad as they are being portrayed by some critics?

In attempting to answer this question, the African

Development Bank in March 2013 decided to undertake a

survey to assess the reliability of GDP data, including the

availability of survey data, price indices, and base years for

constant price GDP.

IntroductionIntroduction

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Upward revisions due to adoption of new SNA version

Improved coverage and classification

Rebasing of base years due to revised population figures, and

good use of recent survey data (agric., industrial or households)

Better coverage of informal sector activities seem to be

responsible for most of the upward revisions, (except in Ghana)

Most countries publish GDP estimates with a lag of one to two

years – this is a significant improvement compared to 10 years

ago

Richer countries are not guaranteed to have good statistics

Some poor countries appear to give high priority to their national

accounts statistics e.g. Niger, Ethiopia and Mozambique

Poor quality scores in statistics – Cong Republic, Cote d’Ivoire,

Equatorial Guinea, and Nigeria

Key findingsKey findings

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African GDPs in both size and direction are commensurate with

those of ASIA and OECD

◦ Thus, African countries do not in general make larger revisions compared to

countries in other regions

Overall, GDP estimates in Africa are NOT nearly as bad as

recently suggested

However, the survey points out some weakness which needs to

be addressed, such as

◦ Stricter adherence to SNA guidelines

◦ Adoption of a regular program of surveys of household, enterprises, &

agriculture

◦ Etc.

Need for enhanced and coordinated support for investment in

data gathering for economic statistics and make data available

to the public

Key findingsKey findings

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Asia

GDP revisionsGDP revisions

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OECD

GDP revisionsGDP revisions

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AFRICA

GDP revisionsGDP revisions

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Africa

GDP Base Years GDP Base Years

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GDP Base YearsGDP Base Years

Base years used:

9 - Cape Verde, Egypt, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Guinea, Malawi, Sao Tome & Principe, Togo and Zimbabwe – 2007 or later

19 – at least 10 but less than 20 years

8 – Benin, Central African Republic, Comoros, Congo Republic, Madagascar, Mali, Nigeria and Sudan- more than 20 years

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Bank program to support Bank program to support countriescountries

Ultimate objective - assist countries produce timely, reliable & comparable economics statistics

Source data Promote the introduction of “economic census” so that

countries can re-base economic indicators around the same period

Household and Establishment survey program Encourage countries to establish Statistical Business

Registers as a basis for improving economic statistics Assist countries immigrate to SNA 2008 within the SHaSA

framework Encourage peer review process of economic statistics

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Way ForwardWay Forward

Countries to complete the diagnostic framework questionnaires

Scoping workshops comprising the major regional & sub-regional organizations & selected African countries.

Two sub-regional workshops consisting of Anglophone countries (SADC, COMESA & the 5 Anglophone ECOWAS countries) & Francophone countries (consisting of the 4 UMA countries & the Francophone countries in West Africa)

◦ Assessment of the completed Diagnostic Framework

for National Accounts and Supporting Economic

Statistics (DF-NA&ES) by the countries

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Way ForwardWay Forward

Finalization of a Regional Implementation Plan

Development of phased national implementation plans - based on national specificities

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Thank youThank you