1 Critical Thinking in ICS project Techniques discussed Prediction.

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Critical Thinking in ICS Critical Thinking in ICS projectproject

Techniques discussedTechniques discussed PredictionPrediction

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PredictionPrediction

When(ever) we expect something to When(ever) we expect something to happen, we are making a prediction. happen, we are making a prediction.

Skillful prediction facilitates planning in Skillful prediction facilitates planning in advance to prepare better for the event.advance to prepare better for the event. taking precautionary measures in the taking precautionary measures in the

case of undesirable events and case of undesirable events and utilizing the favourable situation in the utilizing the favourable situation in the

case of desirable events.case of desirable events. It involves thinking carefully about what It involves thinking carefully about what

we expect and how likely it is to happen. we expect and how likely it is to happen.

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Some common types of predictions are:Some common types of predictions are: Trends or general conditionsTrends or general conditions Effects of a particular eventEffects of a particular event Consequences of options (in decision Consequences of options (in decision

making)making)

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Some common problems with our predictions are:Some common problems with our predictions are: we do not think what might happen we do not think what might happen as the result as the result

ofof a particular circumstance, a particular circumstance, Predict tomorrow based on today’s happeningsPredict tomorrow based on today’s happenings

we do not consider how likely our predictions are,we do not consider how likely our predictions are, Hasty predictions (cutting short lunch for not-so-Hasty predictions (cutting short lunch for not-so-

popular movie tickets)popular movie tickets) we do not take into account all the relevant we do not take into account all the relevant

evidence in determining how likely our predictions evidence in determining how likely our predictions are.are. Running to the station to meet a (non-punctual) Running to the station to meet a (non-punctual)

friendfriend

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Skillful prediction involves answering the Skillful prediction involves answering the following set of questions.following set of questions.1.1. What might happen (or what can you What might happen (or what can you

predict)?predict)?

2.2. What evidence might you get to What evidence might you get to strengthen this prediction?strengthen this prediction?

3.3. What evidence is available that would What evidence is available that would count for or against the likelihood of this count for or against the likelihood of this prediction?prediction?

4.4. Based on the evidence, is this prediction Based on the evidence, is this prediction likely, unlikely or uncertain?likely, unlikely or uncertain?

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Multiple effectsMultiple effects E.g., Ill effects of an advancing hurricaneE.g., Ill effects of an advancing hurricane

FloodingFlooding Damage to homes and treesDamage to homes and trees Power outagePower outage Breakage of communication networks / Breakage of communication networks /

roadsroads Pollution of water supplyPollution of water supply

All possible effectsAll possible effects Their likelyhood based on evidenceTheir likelyhood based on evidence

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Predicting the consequences Predicting the consequences of an optionof an option

1.1. What consequences might result from a What consequences might result from a specific optionspecific option ? ?

2.2. Does each consequenceDoes each consequence a.a. Count for/against the decision ?Count for/against the decision ?

b.b. Rank as important ?Rank as important ?

3.3. How likely is the consequence ?How likely is the consequence ?a.a. Is there evidence that counts for/against the Is there evidence that counts for/against the

likelihood of the consequence ?likelihood of the consequence ?

b.b. Based on the evidence, is it Based on the evidence, is it likely/unlikely/unclear ?likely/unlikely/unclear ?

4.4. Is the decision advisable in the light of theIs the decision advisable in the light of the signficance and likelihood of the conseq ?signficance and likelihood of the conseq ?

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Predicting the consequences Predicting the consequences of an optionof an option

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DiscussionDiscussion

1 Critical Thinking in ICS project Techniques discussed Prediction.

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