1

Cost Benefit Analysis of Infrastructure for Cycling

Sven HunhammarSwedish Environmental Protection Agency

Velo-city 2005 in Dublin

2

Conclusions:- Significant benefits

- Health effects, if new bikers are attracted

- Comfort improvements of old bikers

3

Why?

Infrastructure for cycling should be treated seriously, in the same way as other infrastructure

4

CBA

Costs vs. Benefits

5

What are the benefits of cycling?

Identify, Quantify and Value

6

7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Hokksund Hamar Trondheim

Net benefit/cost ratio

8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Hokksund Hamar Trondheim

Other Benefits

Health

Health - large share of benefit

9

Saelensminde assumed a large increase of demand:

+ 20 % of biking

- 15 % of car travel 0-5 km

10

CBA of bicycle infrastructure

Gunnar Lind, MoveaChrister Hydén, LTH

Ulf Persson, LTH

11

12

13

How will demand change?

• Hard to estimate

• Need more experience!

14

Only in one corridor?

Cycle road ACycle road BCycle road C Suburb

Town centre

Transfer

15

Cycle measureCycle

trips on the path

in % of existing cycle trips on the

construction

Cycling totally in the

corridor

in % of existing cycling kilometres in

the corridor

Car use totally in the

corridor

in % of existing car kilometres in the

corridor

Comprehensive programme

10 - 35% 10 - 35% - 5 - 20%

Single separated high standard cycle corridor

10 - 300% 1 - 5% - 0 - 2%

Single cycle path 5% 0 - 2% - 0 - 1%

Improved maintenance during the winter

5% 5% - 1- 5%

Safe bicycle park 75% 30% - 20 - 30%

Information 100% 1 - 5% - 0 - 1%

Road signing / road markings 100% 0 - 2% - 0 - 2%

16

Travel time

• Twice the value of car travel

• 10 € / hour in mixed traffic

• Less on bike lanes

17

Delay

• Twice the value of travel time (on bike lanes )

• 15 € /hour

18

Comfort

• … and security

• Large willingness-to-pay

• Up to 2 € / trip!

• Based on SP and RP studies

• Very uncertain…

19

Cost of cycling

• Purchase, insurance, repair and maintenance.

• 6 cents / km

20

(sum of effects) * 0.5

• The increased travel of previous and new bikers

• Estimated consumer surplus

21

Improved health

• Large for older and activated cyclists

• Nil for younger and already active

• 300 € /yr average cyclist

• 800 € /yr and cyclist in targeted campaign

22

Obesity, inactivity

Angina pectoris Heart attack

Hypertensionstroke

Diabetes

Loss of production

Medical treat-ment costs

Welfare loss from premature death

Deceases linked to overweight, obesity and inactivity

23

Road safety

• According to standard road CBA

• 0.2 million € / accident

• Not only cyclists

24

Reduction of accidents at intersectionsMeasure Influenced

accident typeBest estimate

Uncertainty of estimate

Bridge, tunnel Pedestrians – crossing

-82 (-90; -69)

no data about cyclists

Motor vehicles -9 (-29; +15)

All accidents -30 (-44; -13)

Prominent stop line for cyclists in signalised intersections

Cycle accidents -27 (-61; +36)

Motor vehicles -66 (-88; -5)

All accidents -40 (-65; +1)

Cycle crossing in signalised intersection

Cycle accidents -12 (-27;+21)

Motor vehicles +39 (+5;+84)

All accidents +14 (-8;+41)

Elevated crossings

All accidentsproperty damage

+5+13

(-34; +68)(-55; +183)

Speed humps All accidents – in the street- in surrounding streets

-48-6

(-54; -42)(-9; -2)

Source: Elvik et al (1997)

25

26

External effects

• According to standard road CBA

• CO2, NOx, PM10, Noise…

• 5 cents / vehicle km

27

CBA example

Investments in the City of Linköping

Sweden

28

Mode before % after % before # /day

after# /day

car 72 71,5 5690 5650

bike 19 19,5 1500 1555

bus 9 9 700 695

total 100 100 7890 7900

Komplettering av cykelbana Ryd-Malmslätt 2 km

Förbättrad cykelpåfart Majgatan

Komplettering av cykelbana

Drottninggatan 0,5 km

29

External

Health

New cyclists

More cycling

Safety

Delay

Comfort

Investments

Example - Linköping

0

1

2

3

4

5

Costs Benefits with Comfort Benefits withoutComfort

Mk

r

30

External

Health

New cyclists

More cycling

Safety

Delay

Comfort

Investments

Example - Linköping

0

1

2

3

4

5

Costs Benefits with Comfort Benefits withoutComfort

Mk

r

31

Impacts and unit prices used in the Nordic countries for cycling

32

Conclusions

Main effects of cycling: great similarities in valuation methods, factors taken into account and different impacts.

Health benefits - can be great if inactive elderly persons are addressed

Comfort and security - play big roles in attracting people to cycling

Uncertain assumptions: Accidents, Demand and Unit costs in CBA of cycling

CBA calculation is powerful - needed to convince decision makers?

33

Recommendations:

Disseminate the results - guidance available: municipalities should use it.

Exchange experience - test the approach

Co-operate in research

Improve data - demand and comfort values

34

New Reports:

Den samhällsekonomiska nyttan med cykeltrafikåtgärder, NV 5456, Naturvårdsverket.

CBA of Cycling, Nordiska Ministerrådet, draft

Contact:

sven.hunhammar@naturvardsverket.se