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CLIMATECLIMATEDo we know where Do we know where

we are headed?we are headed?

Karen A. HarbertKaren A. HarbertInstitute for 21Institute for 21stst Century Energy Century Energy

http://www.energyxxi.orghttp://www.energyxxi.org

29 May 200929 May 2009

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Where We Are: U.S. GHG EmissionsWhere We Are: U.S. GHG Emissions

Source: EPA , Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2007 (Draft)

U.S. net GHG gross emissions are about 6 gigatons a year Gross GHG emissions about 7 gigatons.

U.S. GHG emissions account for about 15% of global emissions (based on IPCC global estimate of 49 GtCO2 eq. in 2004).

U.S. net GHG emissions were 3% lower in 2007 compared to 2000.

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45.1%

21.3%

9.9%

9.6%

9.4%

9.2%

6.8%

6.4%

3.9%

4.8%

0.1%

0.1%

-0.6%

-0.8%

-1.7%

-2.9%

-3.0%

-6.3%

-10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

China **

Canada

India **

Indonesia **

South Africa **

Brazil **

Mexico **

South Korea **

Russia

Australia

EU-27

Italy

Japan

EU-15

Germany

UK

USA

France

Where We Are: Recent Performance Where We Are: Recent Performance Comparable to International PeersComparable to International Peers

Sources: UNFCCC, 2008 National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Formats (http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/4303.php); IEA Online Energy Services <http://data.iea.org/ieastore/statslisting.asp>.** No UNFCCC data available for time period; 2001 through 2005 IEA data used.

Changes in Net GHG Emissions 2000-2006 for 17 Major Economies

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Renewable Fuels* +500% by 2022; 36 billion gallons; ~15% supply

Vehicle Fuel Economy* +40% by 2020; 35 mpg; avoid 8.5 billion gallons a year; ~5% supply

Lighting Efficiency* +25-30% by 2012-2014; +70% by 2020

Appliance Efficiency* +45 new standards

Federal Government Operations* (bigger than most countries) 30% Efficiency and 20% Renewable Fuel Use by 2015

Accelerated HCFC Phaseout More reduction than Kyoto; includes developing countries

Renewable Power 26 States; 500% increase to date; Federal government help

Building Codes Federal government promoting new 30% model code

* Preliminary estimates show that, combined, these mandates will preventabout 5 gigatons of GHG emissions through 2030.

U.S. Mandatory Programs Since 2001 U.S. Mandatory Programs Since 2001 Eight Most Significant SectorsEight Most Significant Sectors

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Obama Administration Emission Obama Administration Emission Reduction GoalsReduction Goals

Mid-Term Goal: Cut U.S. emissions to 14% below 2005 level To achieve this goal, need to cut/avoid ≈1 gigaton of GHG emissions by 2020.

Long-Term Goal: Cut emissions 83% below 2005 level To achieve this goal, need to cut/avoid ≈6 to 7 gigatons of GHG emissions by

2050.

If the U.S. achieved an 80% reduction in emissions in 2050: U.S. GHG emissions intensity would decline from about 0.65 to ≈0.04 metric

tons CO2 eq. per constant $1,000 GDP.

U.S. GHG emissions per capita would decline from about 24 tons CO2 eq. in 2005 to 2.8 tons in 2050.

Is such a transition of energy systems over a 40 year timeframe Is such a transition of energy systems over a 40 year timeframe possible without severe economic harm?possible without severe economic harm?

And just how big is a gigaton of COAnd just how big is a gigaton of CO22??

Sources: EIA, AEO 2009, Year-to-Year Table 18 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/excel/aeotab_18.xls>; EIA Greenhouse Gas Inventory, Table 5 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/excel/tbl5.xls>; U.S. Census, Projections of the Population and Components of Change for the United States: 2010 to 2050 <http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/files/nation/summary/np2008-t1.xls>.

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How Big is One GigatonHow Big is One Gigaton11 of CO of CO22??

1Gigaton = 1 billion metric tons.2 Based on current technology and U.S. data.Source: Climate Change Technology Program. 2006. Strategic Plan. (Numbers updated and converted from carbon equivalents to carbon dioxide.)

Today’s Technology

Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton per Year of Mitigation

Coal-Fired Power Plants

Build 320 “zero-emission” 500-MW coal-fired power plants in lieu of coal-fired plants without CO2 capture and storage (73% CF)—the equivalent of nearly half U.S. coal-fired nameplate generating capacity

Geologic Sequestration

Construct the equivalent of 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sliepner project (1.0 MtCO2/year)

NuclearBuild 130 new nuclear power plants, each 1.0-GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage) (90% CF)

Electricity from Landfill Gas Projects

Install 7,700 “typical” landfill gas electricity projects (typical size being 3-MW projects at non-regulated landfills) that collect landfill methane emissions and use them as fuel for electric generation

EfficiencyDeploy 290 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of new cars at 20 mpg (12,000 miles per year)

Wind EnergyInstall 127,500 wind turbines (2.0-MW each, operating at 0.45 capacity factor) in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage

Solar PhotovoltaicsInstall 1.7 million acres of solar photovoltaics to supplant coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage (10% cell DC eff’cy; 1700 kWh/m2 solar radiance; 90% DC-AC conv. eff’cy).

Biomass Fuels from Plantations

Convert to biomass crop production a barren area about 5.4 times the total land area of Iowa (about 200 million acres)

CO2 Storage in New Forest.

Convert to new forest a barren area about 2.5 times the total land area of the State of Washington (over 100 million acres) (Assumes Douglas Fir on Pacific Coast)

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Some Perspective: Estimated U.S. Emissions Some Perspective: Estimated U.S. Emissions Intensity & Emission per Capita in 2050Intensity & Emission per Capita in 2050

An estimated 0.04 metric tons CO2 eq. per $1,000 of GDP in 2050 would be comparable to the CO2 emissions intensities of Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Guinea, Laos, Uganda in 2005.

An estimated 2.8 metric tons per capita in 2050 would be comparable to the CO2 emissions per capita of Armenia, Gabon, Jordan, North Korea, Turkey in 2005.

Metric Tons CO2 per Constant $1,000 of GDP (Using PPP)

Sources: EIA, World Carbon Intensity—World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels Using Purchasing Power Parities, 1980-2006 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1pco2.xls>; EIA, World Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Consumption and Flaring of Fossil Fuels, 1980-2006 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tableh1cco2.xls>. NOTE: Data for countries other than U.S. includes CO2 from fossil fuel combustion only. The inclusion of other GHGs would raise these figures only modestly, if at all.

Countries With CO2 Emissions Intensities <0.1 Metric Tons per $1,000

of GDP in 2005.

Metric Tons per Capita

Countries With per Capita CO2 Emissions >2.5 and <3.5 Metric Tons

in 2005.

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Energy vs. Climate Change: Where Energy vs. Climate Change: Where is public opinion?is public opinion?

A January 2009 Pew Research Center poll found that climate change ranked dead last among 20 issues of concern to Americans.

Energy ranked number 6.

A March 2009 Gallup poll found a majority of Americans believe the seriousness of

global warming is either correctly portrayed in the news or underestimated. However,

41% now say it is exaggerated, the highest level of public skepticism in more than a decade of Gallup polling on the subject.

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Impact of Carbon Prices Energy on CostsImpact of Carbon Prices Energy on Costs

Additional Cost to Average 2008 Energy Prices Under Different Carbon Prices

(Percent Increase)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

ImportedCrude Oil

Distillate FuelOil

(Residential)

Low SulfurDiesel

MotorGasoline

Jet Fuel Residual FuelOil

Coal (ElectricPower)

Natural Gas(Residential)

Natural Gas(ElectricPower)

Electricity(Ave Price All

Sectors)

Per

cen

t In

crea

se

$100 per Metric Ton

$50 per Metric Ton

$20 per Metric Ton

Sources: EIA, Documentation for Emissions of GHGs 2006, Table 6-1 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/documentation/pdf/0638(2006).pdf>; EIA AEO 2009, Supplemental Table 128, <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/supplement/suptab_128.xls>; EIA AEO 2009, Year-by-Year Reference Tables 8, 12, 13, 15 & 18 <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html>. NOTE: Uses average prices in 2008 as a baseline.

Coal, which has a high carbon content, will be hit hardest.

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Why Engage Developing Countries? Most Future Why Engage Developing Countries? Most Future Emissions Will Come From Developing Countries:Emissions Will Come From Developing Countries:

Energy-Related COEnergy-Related CO22 Emissions by Region 1990 - 2050 Emissions by Region 1990 - 2050

Over 80% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between 2005 and Over 80% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between 2005 and 2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China, India & SE 2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China, India & SE

Asia.Asia.

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.

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Global COGlobal CO22 Emissions—Scale of Reductions Emissions—Scale of Reductions

Needed to Achieve a 50% Reduction by 2050Needed to Achieve a 50% Reduction by 2050

26.6 Gt/yr

61.7 Gt/yr

13.3 Gt/yr

+132% -78%

2005 Emissions 2050 ReferenceEmissions

2050 GlobalCO2 Emissions at 50% of

2005 Emissions

CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(G

t C

O2/y

r)To halve energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 relative to

2005 would require reductions/avoidances in excess of 45 gigatons—equivalent to over 7 times current U.S.

emissions.

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.

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2050 Reference Emissions

2050OECD

ReferenceEmissions

OECD Countries Non-OECD Countries

2050Non-OECDReferenceEmissions

OECD Emissions at20% 2005 Emissions

OECD Emissions at50% 2005 Emissions

-100%

-86%

-65%

-69%

-75%

-84%

2050OECD

Emissions

2050Non-OECD Emissions

2050OECD

Emissions

2050Non-OECD Emissions

2050OECD

Emissions

2050Non-OECD Emissions

OECD Emissions at “0”

20052005

To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global COTo Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO22 Emissions by 2050, Emissions by 2050,

Need Significant Reductions from Developing CountriesNeed Significant Reductions from Developing CountriesAnnual Gigaton CO2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3

CO

2, E

mis

sio

ns

(G

t C

O2/

yr)

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050. NOTE: Includes CO2

emissions from energy.

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Scale of Changes in Global Power SectorScale of Changes in Global Power Sectorto Achieve “50-by-50”to Achieve “50-by-50”

35 500-MW CCS Coal-Fired Plants

20 500-MW CCS Gas-Fired Plants

32 1,000-MW Nuclear Plants

1/5 Canadian Hydropower Capacity

100 50-MW Biomass Plants

14,000 4-MW Turbines

130 100-MW Geothermal Units

215 million m2

80 250-MW CSP Plants

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.

3,750 4-MW Turbines

Additional Annual Investment in Electricity Sector (Compared to 2005 – 2050 Baseline) to Halve 2005 Global CO2 Emissions by 2050:

2010 to 2050

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0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

Today 2020

Gt

CO

2/yr

Scale of COScale of CO22 Storage Storage

0

5

10

15

20

25

Today 2020 2050 2100

Gt

CO

2/yr

CO2 Storage Rate at Level 2 (≈550 ppm)

Data derived from the Level 2 (approx 550 ppmv) MiniCAM CCSP scenario. See Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, H. Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, and R. Richels (2007a). Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research.

By 2050, about 1.4 GtCO2/yr may be required, ≈30 to 35x more than

today.By the end of the century,

approximately 20 GtCO2/yr may be required, over 400x more than today.

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Scale of Changes in Global Transport Scale of Changes in Global Transport Sector to Achieve “50-by-50”Sector to Achieve “50-by-50”

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.

Change in Average Annual Vehicle Sales (Compared to Baseline) to Halve 2005 Global CO2 Emissions by 2050:

2010 to 2050(Vehicles in Millions)

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Principles for Climate Change PolicyPrinciples for Climate Change Policy

Place the U.S. on an equal competitive footing with the rest of the world.

Set realistic and achievable goals that do not undermine economic growth;

Ensure global participation, including binding commitments from large developing countries;

Consider growing energy needs, circumstances, and resources in all countries;

Ensure that mitigation actions by all parties are measurable, reportable, and verifiable;

Recognize technology development and commerce as crucial prerequisites to achieving emission reductions;

Protect intellectual property rights and the rule of law; Remove trade barriers to environmental goods and services

International Principles

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A Path Forward Involves …A Path Forward Involves …

Progress in climate change technology to: create new, better, and less costly solutions facilitate means for change and a smooth transition

Expanding finance & open trade in clean energy goods and services

Protecting intellectual property rights Increasing opportunities for multilateral collaboration Developing a new international framework that is

realistic, economically sustainable and environmentally effective