1 Click hereto read the full sector risk rating ......T Chile V Chile V Costa Rica V Peru V...
13
Transcript of 1 Click hereto read the full sector risk rating ......T Chile V Chile V Costa Rica V Peru V...
Aurélien DUTHOIT, Sector Advisor for Retail, Technology and Household equipment
+33.1.84.11.45. 04
Maxime Lemerle, Head of Sector and Insolvency Research
+33 184 11 5401
Marc Livinec, Sector advisor
+ 33 184 11 6198
Catharina Hillenbrand-Saponar,
Sector Advisor for Energy, Metals, and Machinery and Equipment
+33 (0) 1 84 11 41 29
1 Click here to read the full sector risk rating methodology on our website.
Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0
Pharmaceuticals
Software & IT Services
Paper
Energy
Household equipment
Metals
Machinery & Equipment
Agrifood
Chemicals
Computers & Telecom
Textiles
Construction
Transport equipment
Automotive manufacturers
Retail
Electronics
Automotive suppliers
Transportation
North America
Latin America
Western Europe
Central & EasternEuropeAfrica & Middle East
Asia Pacific
Sources: Bloomberg, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
Sources: IHS, Bloomberg, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
15 16 17 18 19
China
US
Europe
Japan
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
2017 2018 2019 2020
Global air traffic
(change in RPK, YoY)
Top world airlines
7
5
2
Europe Latin America Asia Pacific
73
2
Asia Pacific Middle East and Africa Europe
Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
94.00
96.00
98.00
100.00
102.00
104.00
106.00
19 20e
mbp
d
mbp
d
Production Demand Output growth Demand growth
Sources: Source: BP, OPEC, EIA, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Impo
rt de
pend
ency
from
Chi
na
Share global value added
China
US
Japan
Germany
France
Canada
Brazil
South Korea
UK
Source: IHS
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
01/16 01/17 01/18 01/19 01/20
Steel LME Index Copper
Sources: Bloomberg, LME, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
Latin America Europe
Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
Sources: Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
s Regional risk level:
r Low Medium Sensitive High
Change of sector risk in a given country (the
color of the arrow gives the final risk level):
Ch
em
icals
Ph
arm
a
IT S
erv
ices
Ag
rifo
od
Co
mp
ute
r
Tele
co
m
Texti
le
Ho
useh
old
Eq
uip
men
t
Tra
nsp
ort
Eq
uip
men
t
Pap
er
Tra
nsp
ort
ati
on
En
erg
y
Mach
inery
Co
nstr
ucti
on
Meta
ls
Reta
il
Ele
ctr
on
ics
Au
tom
oti
ve
Man
ufa
ctu
rers
Au
tom
ati
ve
su
pp
liers
sUS sUS sUS
qSingapore qMalaysia sTaiw an sKorea sMalaysia sPhilippines sChina sVietnam sKorea sKorea
qVietnam sHong-Kong sPhilippines sKorea qIndonesia sSingapore sPhilippines
qChina sSingapore sTaiw an sSingapore
qPhilipines sVietnam sVietnam
qVietnam qChina qJapan
qSingapore
qThailand
qLuxembourg sIreland sBelgium qNetherlands qIreland qIreland sBelgium qGermany sIreland sIreland sIreland sDenmark qBelgium qBelgium
qIreland sItaly sSw eden sIreland qSpain qPortugal sFinland qIreland qItaly sNetherlands sIreland qIreland qGermany
qItaly qBelgium sItaly sIreland qPortugal qSpain sPortugal qBelgium qPortugal qIreland
qLuxembourg sLuxembourg sLuxembourg qLuxembourg qUK qPortugal
sNetherlands sNorw ay qUK qUK
sUK sPortugal
sSw eden
qUK
sCzech Rep qEstonia qRussia sCzech Rep qEstonia sLithuania qRussia sCzech Rep sHungary sBulgaria
sEstonia sEstonia sRomania sCzech Rep
sLithuania sHungary
sRomania sLithuania
sSlovakia sPoland
qPoland sRomania
qTurkey sSlovakia
sQatar qIsrael sMorocco
qSouth Africa
sChile sCosta Rica sMexico qEcuador qCosta Rica qPanama sChile
qChile sChile sCosta Rica sPeru
sGuatemala
sMexico
qColombia
Latin
America
North
America
ASIA
Western
Europe
Central &
Eastern
Europe
Africa &
Middle East
(*) by combining for each sector in a given country the imports’ dependency to Italy with the latest level of sector risk (Q4 2019 sector risk ratings)
Source: ITC, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
(*) by combining for each sector in a given country the imports’ dependency to China with the latest level of sector risk (Q4 2019 sector risk ratings)
Source: ITC, Euler Hermes, Allianz Research
