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CICERO research in China on GHG and AP (co-) control in urban areas

NILU, November 4 2009

Kristin Aunan Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO) and Dept of Chemistry UiO

1. Environmental impact assessment and cost-benefit analyses

2. Co-control of air pollution and global warming components – ‘co-benefits’

3. Solid household fuels and environmental impacts

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The Costs of Pollution in China

• SEPA/World Bank

• Goal: To estimate the costs of air and water pollution in China

• The national team: SEPA and affiliates (Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Policy Research Center of Environment and Economy, the China National Environment Monitoring Center), the Ministry of Water Resources (MWR), Ministry of Health (MoH), CDC

• International team:World Bank, RFF (USA), ECON Pöyry, CICERO

1. Environmental impact assessment and cost-benefit analyses

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Main results of SEPA/WB project (in billion RMB)

Physical BurdenEconomic

Burden (Low)

Share of GDPEconomic Burden

(High) 2

Share of GDP

Health Impacts

Outdoor Air Pollution Mortality394,000 Premature Deaths[135,000, 628,000]

111[35.8, 179]

0.82%394

[136,641]2.9%

Outdoor Air Pollution Morbidity

305,000 Chronic Bronchitis Cases [266,000, 342,000]

46.4[39.0, 53.2]

0.34%126

[108, 142]0.93%

Water Pollution Mortality and Morbidity

9 million Diarrhea episodes; 14,000 Diarrhea DeathsOther health effects exist but could not be quantified due to lack of exposure data.

4.4 0.03% 14.2 0.11%

Non-Health Impacts of Water Pollution

Water Scarcity74 Billion m3 of water depletion and pollution

147[95, 199]

1.1%147

[95, 199]1.1%

Crop Loss (from Waste Water Irrigation)

Wheat 4463TonneRice 7339 TonneCorn 62,505 TonneVegetable 560,771 Tonne

6.7 0.05% 6.7 0.05%

Fishery Loss1274 fishery pollution accidents

4.3 0.03% 4.3 0.03%

Non-Health Impacts of Air Pollution

Crop Loss (from Acid Rain)

Rice 15.4 Million TonneWheat 16.3 Million TonneRape 3.6 Million TonneCotton 0.6 Million TonneSoya bean 3.6 Million TonneVegetable 203 Million Tonne

30 0.22% 30 0.22%

Material Damage 13.6 Billion m2 6.7 0.05% 6.7 0.05%

Total 356.5 2.64% 728.9 5.40%

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CICERO: Quantifying health and environmental damage from air pollution

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Climate-change and air-pollution links

• Source link: CO2 and the main air pollutants have the same sources

• Air pollutants as a climate forcing (especially tropospheric ozone and particles)

• Chemistry links: Some air pollutants affect the lifetimes of GHGs

2. Co-control of air pollution and global warming components – co-benefits

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Bottom-up study:‘Cleaner Production’ projects in Taiyuan:CO2 reductions and health co-benefits(ECON/CICERO/Taiyuan Univ of Techn)

Semi-bottom-up study:Energy saving and clean coal technologies in Shanxi province:CO2 reductions and health co-benefits(ECON/CICERO/Taiyuan Univ of Techn)

Top-down study: Costs of a CO2 tax in China using macroeconomic model (CGE), accounting for health and agricultural co-benefits and distributional effects (with the Development Research Center of the State Council)

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Implementing a CO2 tax in China: Welfare analysis for 2010 including health benefits

1.

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…and avoided crop loss due to reduced surface ozone (NOx- ozone –crop link)

’No regrets’ CO2 abatement: 15% - 20%

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Integrated CGE model studies

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Bottom-up study in Taiyuan: Six clean coal and energy efficiency projects

Mestl, Aunan, Fang, Seip, Skjelvik and Vennemo, J. Cleaner Production, 13 (2005), 57-70.

• Four projects at the Iron and Steel Company

• District boiler house

• Coal briquetting factory

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Summary bottom-up studies in Shanxi: Health co-benefits of CO2 reductions often higher than costs

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Cogeneration

Modified boiler d

esign

Boiler replacement

Improved boiler management

Coal washing

Briquetting

Iron and Steel 1 CDQ

Iron and Steel 2 55% EAF

Iron and Steel 3 CCPP

Iron and Steel 4 TRT

District boiler h

ouse DB

Briquetting factory CB

Health benefit/CO2 (USD/ton CO2)

Abatement cost (USD/ton CO2)

762 USD/ton CO2

US

D/t

on

CO

2

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Co-control potential for project types – lessons from China’s CDM project portfolio

(Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Cement

Coal bed methane

Waste

Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, wind..new PP)

Biomass PP (crop residues)

Fossil fuel switch

Energy eff. (Own production at plant level)

Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)

NOx (100kg/ktCO2eq)

PM2.5 (100kg/ktCO2eq)

SO2 (t/ktCO2eq)

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Co-benefit of China’s CDM portfolio 2010 (€/tCO2eq)

(Based on Rive and Aunan, 2009, work in progress)

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Cement

Coal bed methane

Waste

Zero Emission Renewables (hydro, wind..new PP)

Biomass (crop residues in PP)

Fossil fuel switch

Energy eff. (Own production at plant level)

Energy eff. (Supply-side and Industry)

Health benefit

Avoided crop loss

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Bottom-up studies on co-benefits

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Dirty household fuels affects rural and urban health

• Rural China: 80%-90% of population weighted exposure is due to indoor air pollution from solid fuels

• Urban China: 50-60%

3. Solid household fuels and environmental impacts

ΔPWE (μg/m3 PM10) for three abatement scenarios in mainland China: 1) Clean fuels in urban residences, 2) partial fuel switch in rural residences, and 3) IAQ standard (150 μg/m3) met in all households (urban and rural)

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Solid household fuel use in China – environment and development issues

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• Global 3-D chemical transport model (Oslo-CTM2): Atmospheric burden of ozone, sulfate aerosols, and carbonaceous aerosols

• Radiative transfer model: RF for BC, OC, and sulfate; TOA RF and global means (current and future integrated)

Modeling radiative forcing (RF) resulting from solid fuel burning in developing Asia

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-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Biomass fuels

Coal

Net global warming? Coal: Yes (due to CO2 primarily); Biomass: Do not know..

mWm-2yr

Global average TOA integrated radiative forcing from emissions from solid fuel burning in Asian households (2000), 100 y time horizon (68% CI) (Aunan et al. 2009)

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Ideas for contribution to EU project

• General:– Health impact assessment– RF from air pollutants

• Study of impacts on GHG/air pollutants/population exposures from urbanization in China (e.g. alternative scenarios for transport; housing and household fuels; …)

• China’s low-carbon strategies (province/city-level)