1 CHAPTER 3 CONSTRUCTION OF FINANCIAL PROFILES FOR PROJECTS PROFILES FOR PROJECTS.
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Transcript of 1 CHAPTER 3 CONSTRUCTION OF FINANCIAL PROFILES FOR PROJECTS PROFILES FOR PROJECTS.
1
CHAPTER 3
CONSTRUCTION OF CONSTRUCTION OF FINANCIALFINANCIAL
PROFILES FOR PROJECTSPROFILES FOR PROJECTS
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Chapter 3. Constructıon of Financial Profiles for Projects
Table of Contents1. Introduction2. Construction of Pro-forma Cash
Flow Statement3. Investment Decisions from
Alternative Viewpoints
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3.1.INTRODUCTION Data must be organized in financial
and economic values for the project life.
Financial appraisal Net Cash Flows
(Receipts / Expenditures)
Economic appraisal Net Economic Benefits (Benefits / Costs)
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3.1.INTRODUCTION (cont’t)
Financial cash flow lists the difference between receipts and expenditures against the years of project life.
Usually the net financial cash flow is negative in the first years of the project’s life, while in later years it becomes positive.
Some projects may have negative cash flows in their operating stages, and some have in the final years.
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Example of Project Cash Flow
+2.5+1.6+1.6+1.6-2.0+1.6+1.6+0.4-2.5-2.0-1.0Net (R-E)
00.40.40.43.00.40.40.62.52.01.0Expenditures
2.52.02.02.01.02.02.01.0Receipts
109876543210Year
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The Components of Cash Flow Analysis
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Ben
efit
s L
ess
Cos
ts
(-)
(+)
Year of Project Life
Initial Investment Period
Operating StageLiquidation
Project Life
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Types of Financial Statements
a. Cash-Flow Table: Shows the INFLOW and OUTFLOW of cash through a period of time
b. Income Statement: Shows the Revenues and Expenditures for a period of time.
c. Balance Sheet: Shows the ASSETS and the LIABILITIES at a certain period of time.
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INCOME STATEMENT
REVENUES Sales revenue + Other revenues +
EXPENDITURES Cost of goods sold - Administrative costs -
Gross Profit (profit before tax) (- / +) Net TaxesNET PROFIT
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BALANCE SHEET (31.12.2000)
ASSETSASSETS LIABILITIESLIABILITIESLiquid assetsLiquid assets Short term Liabilities
Cash at Bank Accounts PayableAccounts PayableBonds and stocksBonds and stocks Short Term CreditsShort Term CreditsInventoriesInventories
Fixed AssestsFixed Assests Long Term Long Term LiabilitiesLiabilities
BuildingBuilding Loan Term Loan Term LiabilitiesLiabilities
MechineryMechinery
Owner’s EquityOwner’s Equity
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2 . CONSTRUCTION OF CASH FLOW STATEMENT
a. Investment Plan - The first step in the construction of a financial cashflow is the formation of the
investment plan- Include all the expenditures, domestic-
imported, goods-services, tariffs and subsidies, year by year. -How these expenditures are to be financed i.e. from equity, domestic-foreign loans, grants etc.-Equity funds are not a cash inflow from owners point of view because he has/she to finance these funds himself.
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Investment Plan (Con’t)
Interest during construction is included as a cost by the accountants to reflect the opportunity cost of the investment (capital) that could have been used alternatively. If no interest is paid to the lender of the money, this is not cash expenditure (outflow) and should not be included as an expenditure in the investment plan. If interest payments are made during the construction, this should be included as a cash outflow from the owners’s (equity) point of view.
For most public sector projects it is the financial performance of the entire invested capital and not just the equity portion which is relevant. No distinction is made between the return received by the lenders of debt and the return received by the owners of the equity.
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Table 3-1. Investment Plan for a Medium Scale Public Table 3-1. Investment Plan for a Medium Scale Public Sector Mining ProjectSector Mining Project
Item Year 0 1 2…..………………..7
(A) EXPENDITURES (thousands of dollars)
1. Site Preparation, exploration, and development
(A) Materials: (I) Traded net of taxes Tariffs(15%) Sales tax (5%)
500
75 29
500
75 29
(II) Non-nontraded net of taxes Sales Tax (5%)
400 20
300 15
(B) Skilled Labor (domestic) (C) Unskilled Labor
150 200
100 250
2. Equipment
Traded, net of taxes Tariffs (10%) Sales Taxes (10%)
600 60 66
2000 200 220
Total Expenditures 2100 3689
(B) FINANCING
Government Equity 2000 2000 1189
Government Loan (short-term) 100 500
Foreign Loan (guaranteed by
government)
0 2000
Total Financing 2100 3689
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b. The Operating Plan
Future expected performance of a project can be analyzed through the financial statements which include:
(i) balance sheet (ii) Income (profit and loss) statements (iii) cash flow statements
Cash flow statement can be constructed from balance sheets and income statements over a series of years.
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i. Accounts Receivable and Accounts Payable The net cash flow statement is calculated as the difference
between total receipts (not total income) and total expenditures (not total expenses).
One has to differentiate sales from receipts and purchases from expenditures. For this we must consider accounts payable and accounts receivable.
When a sale is made the goods may be delivered but no money is transferred. This is recorded as accounts receivable for the seller and accounts payable for the buyer (difference between sales and receipts).
When a buyer purchases goods but not pay for it, it is recorded as accounts payable (difference between purchases and expenditures).
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Example for Cash Receipt (inflow)
Cash Inflow Case:
If a sale at an amount of $4000 is generated throughout 2002, total Accounts Recievable (at the beginning of the period, from previous years sales) was $2000 and if at the end of the same year total A/R was $2600 (both from current year sales and from previous year sales) total cash flow will be as follows:
Cash Receipt = Sales for + A/R beginning - A/R end (inflow) Period of Period of
period
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Example for Cash Receipt (inflow) (Con’t)
Example: Example:
Sales in Year 1 Sales in Year 1 = $10,000 = $10,000Accounts Receivable in Year 0 = $5,000Accounts Receivable in Year 0 = $5,000Accounts Receivable in Year 1 = $8,000Accounts Receivable in Year 1 = $8,000
Cash FlowCash Flow = Sales in 1 + ( A/R 0 – A/R 1 )= Sales in 1 + ( A/R 0 – A/R 1 )
7000 = 10000 + (5000 – 8000)7000 = 10000 + (5000 – 8000)
Note: A/R recorded as asset for the sellerNote: A/R recorded as asset for the seller A/P recorded as liability for the purchaser on BALANCE A/P recorded as liability for the purchaser on BALANCE
SHEETSHEET
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Example for Cash Receipt (outflow)
Cash Outflow Case:
If a purchase at an amount of $3800 is generated throughout 2002 and if the total Accounts Payable (at the beginning of the 2002, from previous year purchases) was $3500 and if at the end of the same year total A/P was $2800 (both from current year purchases and from previous year purchases) total cash outflow will be as follows:
Cash Expend. = Purchases + A/P beginning - A/P end (outflow) for Period of Period of period
4500 = 3800 + 3500 - 2800
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i. Depreciation Expenditures Depreciation expense or capital cost allowance
is not a cash outflow. It should not be included in the financial cash flow of the project as an outflow.
Full cost of the capital investment is included in the financial cash flow i.e. full amount of the investment expenditures are deducted in the year (year 0, 1, 2) they occur.
If further depreciation expense (capital cost) is deducted from the cash flow profile a double counting of the costs will occur.
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Salvage valueSalvage value or or in-use valuein-use value is entered into the cash is entered into the cash flow as a positive item after the year project ends flow as a positive item after the year project ends
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Project Cash Flow Profile
R – E Expenditure net cash flow from
of operation
t3
Investment
t4Net Income
year 3
Depreciation expense for year 3
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Cash Held to Carry Out Transactions A cash ( Petty cash) is set aside to facilitate
the transactions of a business. If the stock of cash balance held increases in a
period (beginning - end of period), this is recorded as a cash outflow, and likewise if it decreases it is recorded as cash inflow.
Change in cash Cash held Cash held beginning held = end of period - of period
($120) ($100)
$ 20 outflow ( a positive item in the expenditures)
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vi. Working Capitalvi. Working Capital
Working capital is composed of: Working capital is composed of: Accounts receivable Accounts receivable Accounts payable Accounts payable Cash balance Cash balance Inventories and stocksInventories and stocks
A certain amount of investment is made A certain amount of investment is made in cash. A/R. less A/P. and inventories or in cash. A/R. less A/P. and inventories or stocks. If there is any change in these stocks. If there is any change in these items they are automatically reflected in items they are automatically reflected in the cash flow.the cash flow.
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working capital (Con’t)
Woring Capital = Cash for Transactions + Accounts Receivable- Accounts Paybale+ Inventories+ Prepaid expenses- Accrued Liabilities
(i.e. Tax liabilities)
Working capital is an importan part of investment project (usually around 30 % of the investment)
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2.6 Opportunity Cost Opportunity cost of using a resource in a project is the
forgone benefit for not using it in another activity.
A farm may be converted from tobacco plantation to
peanut planting. The opportunity cost of planting
peanut is the income sacrificed for not planting
tobacco. This income should be included in the cash
flow statement of peanut project as an outflow (it is a
negative item for the project).
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2.7 Sunk Costs or Incremental Costs
Many investment projects are additions to existing ongoing activities. Any financial obligations of the existing facility should not be included in the incremental benefits and costs of the new project.
The previous expenditures that were made are the “historical costs” (the money paid when it was bought) or the “sunk costs” and should not be included in the evaluation of incremental investments.
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2.7 Sunk Costs or Incremental Costs (Con’t)
The only occasion that the assets of the old facility can be included is when the asset has a chance to be sold. In this case, not the historical cost but the liquidation value (or in-use value) of the existing facility is included as an opportunity cost. If this is not included, the total cost of the project is significantly underestimated.
The existing facility can be sold as an ongoing business with a price called “in-use value” of the asset. The resource cost of the existing facility is taken, the greater of the liquidation or in-use value of the existing asset.
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2.7 Sunk Costs or Incremental Costs (Con’t)
While estimating the value of some of the assets of the project at the end of its life, the greater of their liquidation or in-use values are taken.
The most accurate way of estimating the liquidation or in-use value of an asset is to investigate their values in second hand markets.
Less accurate but more practical way of estimating liquidation or in-use values is through using the current book values, installation and set up costs. These values must be adjusted for inflation.
It is a very common error to assume that all costs and benefits are incremental to the new project when in fact they are not. A “base case” should be defined and its costs and benefits should be identified as if no additional investment is made.
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2.8 Land
Land used in a project has an opportunity cost. Even if the land is donated by the government, its market value should be included as an investment cost.
The land under most situations do not depreciate. The end of project value of land should not be taken above the value adjusted for inflation unless a real increase in value has taken place as a result of the project i.e. quality of the soil is improved or harmed.
If the real value of the land is improved due to an infrastructure project carried out nearby, such an improvement in land value will not be considered as it is not the direct result of the project.
Alternatively (alternative to using the value of the land at the beginning and the liquidation value at the end of the cash flow of the project), the land use cost can be entered as an annual rental charge.
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2.9 Format for the Pro-Forma Cash Flow Statement
There is no set format for the fro-forma cash flow statement. It is expected to have sufficient detail so that the financial cash flows to be prepared could easily be adjusted for the economic and distributive appraisal.
Receipts must be identified as traded and non-traded goods, taxes, tariffs and subsidies should be detailed. Financial charges, such as interest, must be excluded from the cost of inputs and presented in a separate line.
Example of mine (investment plan was given in Table 3-1).Life of the mine is 5 years.Liquidation value of the mine is $1,000,000 Land has no value after being mined.
Table Table 3-3 gives the financial cash flow statement of the mine project.
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(Thousands of dollars) Item Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 RECEIPTS:
Sales: Traded Change in account receivables Liquidation Value (scrapped assets)
2000 -500
3000 -250
3500 -250
3000 +250
2000 +250
0 +500 1000
CASH INFLOW (+) 1500 2750 3250 3250 2250 1500 EXPENDITURES: a) Site preparation, exploration and development: Materials: Traded material Tariffs (traded) Sales Taxes (traded)
500 75 29
500 75 29
Non-traded material Sales taxes
400 20
300 15
Equipment: Traded-Net Sales Tax Tariffs
600
66 60
2000
220 200
b) Material Purchases Traded Non-traded Tariffs Taxes
600 200
60 20
750 250
75 25
800 320
80 32
700 200
70 20
600 200
60 20
c) Labor Operating Cost Skilled Labor Unskilled Labor
100
50
150
70
200
90
150
80
125
60
d) Labor :Construction cost Skilled Labor Unskilled Labor
150 200
100 250
e) Change in Account Payables f) Change in Cash held as working capital
0 20
-160 10
-40 15
-100 5
+100 -5
+50 -25
+150 -20
CASH OUTFLOW (-) 2100 3709 880 1295 1427 1315 1090 130
NET CASH FLOW -2100 -3709 -620 +1455 +1823 +1935 +1160 +1370
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3. INVESTMENT DECISIONS FROM ALTERNATIVE VIEWS
3.1Types of Analysis
An investment project can be evaluated by using below perspectives:
a. Financial analysis: It uses market prices for inputs/outputs
b. Economic analysis: Prices are adjusted for market distortions
(taxes/subsidies). True resource cost or economic benefit.
c. Distributive analysis: Net economic benefits are shared.
d. Basic needs analysis: Externalities for the whole society.
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3.2 Various Viewpoints
• Different actors are involved in an investment project:
a. Owners (equity) point of view
b. Banker or financial institution (total investment) point of view
c. Government point of view
d. Economy point of view
• If the outcome of the project is attractive to the owner but not to the
banker or to the government, the project could face official approval
and funding problems. In the alternative case it faces problems of
implementation.
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Figure 3-2: Analyses of Investment Decisions from Different Viewpoints
Types of Analysis
Financial Economic Distributive Basic Needs
Viewpoints: (I) (II) (III) (IV)
Banker Yes na Yes na
Owner Yes na Yes na
Government
(budget office) Yes na Yes na
Country na Yes Yes Yes
Note: na = not applicable
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Table 3-4: Net Resource Flow from Different Viewpoints
Analysis: Financial Economic
Viewpoints: Owner Bank Budget Country(cell Fig 3.2) (B) (A) (C) (D)
Year: 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
Sales 300 300 300Operation Cost -140 -140 -140Equipment -1000 950 -1000 950 -1000 950
Subsidy 150 150 -150Taxes -100 -100 100Loan 500 -500Interest -50 Externality -50Opportunity Cost of Land -30 -30 -30 -30 -30 -30Net Resource Flow -530 580 -1030 1130 -50 -1030 1030
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3.3 Interests of Private Sector/Economy in a Project• Analysis of a project from private sector (business) and economy
perspective can lead to 4 possible results (Figure 3-3).• In cell (a) the project have to be carried out as it generates net benefit
for both the owner and the economy. • In cell (d) the project generates net losses to both parties and should
not be undertaken. • In cell (b) the project is profitable to the owner and unprofitable to the
society. Ex. Use of extensive pesticides. The government by increasing the taxes can make the project unprofitable to the owner. The project moves from (b) to (d). In any case the project should not be undertaken if it is unprofitable to the society.
• In cell (c) the project generates net benefits to the society but net losses to the owners. Ex. Cultivation of trees. The government by giving subsidies can make the project profitable to the owner. This shifts the project from (c) to (a). In this case it becomes profitable to both society and owner.
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Profitability Calculations from Owner’s and Economy’s View
___________________________________________________________
Economic Country (+) (-)
___________________________________________________________
Financial + (a) (b)
(Owner) (-) (c) (d)