1 CHAPTER 16 FORECASTING WITH NONLINEAR MODELS: AN INTRODUCTION Figure 16.1 Time Series of a SETAR...
-
Upload
shanna-lloyd -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
2
Transcript of 1 CHAPTER 16 FORECASTING WITH NONLINEAR MODELS: AN INTRODUCTION Figure 16.1 Time Series of a SETAR...
1
CHAPTER 16FORECASTING WITH NONLINEAR MODELS:
AN INTRODUCTION
Figure 16.1 Time Series of a SETAR Process with Two Regimes and Threshold Zero
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
16.1 Nonlinear Dependence
2
Figure 16.2 SETAR Process in a Regression Framework
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
3González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
Figure 16.3 Unconditional Histogram of the SETAR Time Series
4González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business,
Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
Figure 16.4 Autocorrelograms of a SETAR Process
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
5
Figure 16.5 U.S. Industrial Production Index (Year-to-Year Changes)
16.1.2 Is There Any Evidence of Nonlinear Dynamics in the Data?
6
Figure 16.6 3-Month Treasury Bill Rates
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
7
Figure 16.7 U.S. GNP Business Cycle with Four Regimes (Stylized Business Cycle)
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
8
Figure 16.8 Autocorrelations of a Bilinear Process
16.1.3 Nonlinearity, Correlation, and Dependence
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
9
Figure 16.9 3-Month Treasury Bill Interest Rates (Monthly Data)
16.2.1 Threshold Autoregressive Models (TAR)
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
10
Table 16.1 Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root Test for 3-Month Treasury Bill Rates
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
11
Table 16.2 OLS Estimation of a Two-Regime SETAR Model for 3-Month Treasury Bill
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
12
Figure 16.10 Logistic and Exponential Transition Functions
16.2.2 Smooth Transition Models
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
13
Figure 16.11 U.S. Industrial Production (Quarterly Growth Rates)
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
14
Table 16.3 The Best Linear Model for U.S. Industrial Production Growth
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
15
Table 16.4 Testing for Linearity
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
16
Table 16.5 Testing for Linearity
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
17
Figure 16.12 Logistic Transition Function for U.S. Industrial Production Growth
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
18
Table 16.6 Estimation of Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
19
Figure 16.13 A Time Series of a 2-State Markov Switching Process
16.2.3 Markov Regime-Switching Models: A Descriptive Introduction
González-Rivera: Forecasting for Economics and Business, Copyright © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
20
Figure 16.14 Unconditional Density of a 2-State Markov Regime Switching Process and the Densities in Each State