11

ByBy

Assoc. Prof. Dr.Somjai PhagaphasvivatAssoc. Prof. Dr.Somjai Phagaphasvivat

Thailand Economy

Update : Mar 2012

World Economy Forecast

-2.4

-4.1-5.2

-2.2

1.5

-0.5

2.34.9

3.62.2

6.3

10.1

2.7 4.61.9

1.7

2.94.5

10.4

5.1

2.8

2.9

2.0

11.6

5.2

13.0

4.9

2.4

2.72.0

5.22.6

9.6

-1.20.60.4

3.0

-0.6

9.17.8

10.5

2.8

1.72.6

4.8

1.1

4

9.5

1.64

9

1.8 1.1

4

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

World USA Euro Zone Japan China Thailand

2004 2005 20062007 2008 20092010 2011 2012

Note : 2004-2011 Actual Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook (September 2011)

(2)

(%)

(3)

World Economy Forecast

Source : IMF, World Economic Outlook, Update January 2012

(3)

10.0 10.1 10.411.6

9.6 9.1 9.28.2 8.8

1.42.7

1.9 2.0 1.7 1.62.5

3.62.9 2.8

1.8 2.23.6

4.93.3 3.9

-0.5

0.8

10.5

13.0

-0.9

2.42.8

-5.2

-1.2

1.82.6

-2.4

0.42.0

5.2

3.0

-0.6

4.83.8

5.14.5

0.82.2 1.7

2.9 2.7

0.6

-4.1

1.7 1.6

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

China Japan United States World Euro area

(%)

Note: Update September 2011

Source: IMF,World Economic Outlook (September 2011)

Thailand GDP Growth Forecast (%)

4.41.8

45.14.92.5

-2.2

4.66.37.1

5.3

2.2

4.8

-10.2

-1.4

5.9

9.298.38.18.6 7.8

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

(4)

(%)

(5)

Thailand GDP Growth

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

GDP Growth (Left) GDP (Right)

(%) (Mil. Baht)

International Trade of Thailand

2.6

23.5

1419.3

-16.1-14.7-4.6

-0.3

12.70.9

-8.21.43.82.72.5

5.59.312.3

-8.8-8.6-7.9-9.5

6.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

Export Import Balance

(Bil. US$)

Source : http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=409&language=TH

(6)

(%)

(7)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Mar-0

9

May

-09

Jul-0

9

Sep-

09

Nov-0

9

Jan-

10

Mar-1

0

May

-10

Jul-1

0

Sep-

10

Nov-1

0

Jan-

11

Mar-1

1

May

-11

Jul-1

1

Sep-

11

Nov-1

1

Jan-

12-2,000

-1,0000

1,000

2,000

3,0004,000

5,000

Exports(Left) Imports(Left)

Balance(right)

(Bil. US$) (Mil. US$)

Trade Balance

Import Value : % change (US$)

36.7

24.7

2.8

-25.2

15.7

-13.4

17.4

4.6

16.9

-33.8

0.66.0

18.412.4

-3.0

31.331.925.725.8

9.0

26.8

7.9

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source : http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=409&language=TH

(8)

(%)

Export Value : % change (US$)

21.5

16.4

-2.3

28.4

-13.9

25.5

15.818.2

16.9

15.1

18.2

4.813.4

-6.8

7.4

23.8

13.8

14.3

22.2

-1.93.8

19.5

-7.1

24.8

-20-15-10-505

101520253035

Source : http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=409&language=TH

(9)

(%)

Current Account Balance (% of GDP)

8.2

4.33.40.6

3.3

-4.3

5.7

1.11.73.7

4.4

7.610.2

12.7

-2.0

-7.9-7.9-5.4-4.9-5.5

-7.5-8.3-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Source : http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=409&language=TH

(10)

(%)

Current Account Balance

2.7

21.8

14.711.9

2.1

-7.1-7.4-6.1-6.1

-7.8

-13.2-14.4

-3.1

14.312.5

9.3

5.14.74.7

-7.6

2.3

14.0

2.1

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

199019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

12

(Bil. US$)

Source : http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=409&language=TH

(11)

Thailand International Reserves

18.421.225.430.337.038.7

27.029.534.832.733.038.942.149.852.1

67.0

87.6

111.0

175.1180.4172.1

138.4

020406080

100120140160180200

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

(Bil. US$)

Note : As of Feb 2012Source : http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/Indicators/Docs/indicators.xls : Table8 (12)

Thailand External Debt

106,557110,797

96,510

75,30765,225

61,73869,973

59,295

58,79051,909

59,45967,509

79,715

95,051

105,062109,276

108,742

64,867

52,10743,621

37,878

100,832

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

199119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

12

(Mil. US$)

Note : As of Jan 2012Source : http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/Indicators/Docs/indicators.xls : Table9

(13)

Thailand External Debt

76,641

39,730 42,726 48,99257,12758,307

28,421

19,06027,247 33,604

47,51849,43152,490

47,54065,021

22,48724,707

35,68829,473

60,99948,434

70,982 75,512

54,120

41,005 36,238

42,49940,399 42,179

15,39118,914

29,179

14,694

11,91922,634

52,398

47,743

38,294

19,539

13,389

10,904 23,057

21,640 33,128

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Long Short

(Mil. US$)

Note : As of Jan 2012Source : http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/Indicators/Docs/indicators.xls Table9

(14)

External Debt per GDP

34.2133.9528.829.4

32.838.537.01

40.940.3

48.8

56.1

66.772.969.9

64.865.969.1

51.146.7

44.344.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

(%)

Note : As of Quarter 4/2011Source : http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=81&language=TH

(15)

Thailand Foreign Direct Investment

7,417

141,765

252,248

198,880

51,389

43,81233,241

53,69157,472

49,887

117,696

209,888

115,286

224,842 213,723

147,526

262,597

399,381

355,401

248,330

154,014

134,592

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000(Mil. Baht)

Source : http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=76&language=ENG (16)

(17)

Industrial Capacity Utilization

58.72 58.762.4

65.267.5268.0467.7466.12

62.62

56.19

63.458.2 60.4

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Note : Average of Feb 2012Source : http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/Indicators/Docs/indicators.xls : Table3.2

(17)

(%)

(18)

Manufacturing Production Index

-9.4-9.3

15.5

-7.2

3.9

8.16.48.9

11.19.8

0.040.0

12.8

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Note : Average of Feb 2012Source : http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/Indicators/Docs/indicators.xls : Table3.1

(18)

(%)

(19)

Thailand Inflation Rate

3.3

0.7

5.6

8.1

0.3

1.6 1.8

1.6

2.7

4.7

2.3

5.5

-0.9

4.5 3.813.39

1

4.7

1.8

0.71.3

0.4 0.2

7.2

0.4

2.3

1.1

2.4

0.3

2.742.36

1.6

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

CPI Core CPI

Note : Average of 2012Source : Ministry of Commerce

(19)

(%)

(20)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Jan-

09

May

-09

Sep-

09

Jan-

10

May

-10

Sep-

10

Jan-

11

May

-11

Sep-

11

Jan-

12

CPI Core CPI

(%)

Consumer Price Index

Source : Ministry of Commerce

(21)

115

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

Jan-05

Apr-0

5

Jul-0

5

Oct-05

Jan-06

Apr-0

6

Jul-0

6

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-0

7

Jul-0

7

Oct-07

Jan-08

Apr-0

8

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-09

Apr-0

9

July-09

Oct-09

Jan-10

Apr-1

0

Jul-1

0

oct-1

0

Jan-11

Apr-1

1

Jul-1

1

Oct-11

Jan-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

PCI %YOY

Private Consumption Index(%)

Source : Bank of Thailand (BOT)

(22)

Manufacturing Production Index

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

Jan-

05

Apr-0

5

Jul-0

5

Oct-05

Jan-

06

Apr-0

6

Jul-0

6

Oct-06

Jan-

07

Apr-0

7

Jul-0

7

Oct-07

Jan-

08

Apr-0

8

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-

09

Apr-0

9

July-

09

Oct-09

Jan-

10

Apr-1

0

Jul-1

0

oct-1

0

Jan-

11

Apr-1

1

Jul-1

1

Oct-11

Jan-

12

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

MPI %YOY

Source : Bank of Thailand (BOT)

(%)

(23)

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)

556065707580859095

100

Total CCI CCI Present CCI Future

Source : Thai Chamber of Commerce

(24)

30

40

50

60

Jan-

05

Apr-05

Jul-0

5

Oct-05

Jan-

06

Apr-06

Jul-0

6

Oct-06

Jan-

07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7

Oct-07

Jan-

08

Apr-08

Jul-0

8

Oct-08

Jan-

09

Apr-09

July-09

Oct-09

Jan-

10

April-10

Jul-1

0

Oct-10

Jan-

11

Apr-11

Jul-1

1

Oct-11

Jan-

12

BSI Expected BSI

Source : Bank of Thailand (BOT)

Business Sentiment Index (BSI)

The Index is equal to 50 means business sentiment is unchanged.The Index is above 50 means business sentiment is improved.The Index is below 50 means business sentiment is worsened.

(25)

Private Investment Index (PII)

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

Jan.05

Apr.05

Jul.0

5

Oct.05

Jan.06

Apr.06

Jul.0

6

Oct.06

Jan.07

Apr.07

Jul.0

7

Oct.07

Jan.08

Apr.08

Jul.0

8

Oct-0

8

Jan-

09

Apr-0

9

July-

09

Oct-0

9

Jan-

10

Apr-1

0

Jul-1

0

oct-1

0

Jan-

11

Apr-1

1

Jul-1

1

Oct-1

1

Jan-

12

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

PII %YOY

Source : Bank of Thailand (BOT)

(%)

(26)

Public Debt

฿4,294,308฿4,230,744฿4,201,323

฿4,166,321฿4,279,900฿4,262,990฿4,257,380

฿4,246,1102,719,459฿4,279,270฿4,263,390฿4,280,053

฿4,269,027฿4,448,295

฿3,155,607

฿4,303,532฿4,362,357

฿0

฿1,000,000

฿2,000,000

฿3,000,000

฿4,000,000

฿5,000,000

(Mil. Baht)

Note : As of Jan 2012Source : http://www.pdmo.go.th/popup_money_data.php?m=money&ts2_id=1

(26)

(27)

41.241.88

42.3942.23

42.643.2

42.542.742.342.0

41.4

42.541.941.63

41.2841.0341.0840.69

39.4440.22

41.66

41.0340.5440.3

3738394041424344

(%)

(27)

Note : As of Dec 2011 Source : http://www.pdmo.go.th/popup_money_data.php?m=money&ts2_id=1

Public Debt (% of GDP)

(28)

Thailand Interest Rate of Commercial Banks

13.7314.70

8.15 7.40 6.905.96 5.91

6.817.99

7.13 6.755.86 6.12

7.25 7.13

5.00 4.503.63

2.84 2.25 1.881.09 0.98 1.59

2.89 2.38 1.750.7

1.552.87 2.86

8.83

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

MLR Commercial deposits

Source : http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/EconomicConditions/Thai/Documents/21_pic_June09.pdf

(28)

(%)

(29)

Deposits and Loans of Commercial Bank

10,62411,67512,039

4,780

8,6048,8649,962

11,60011,8289,771

4,2253,639

9,2588530.38,179

4,817

3,204

4,5964,575

5,1325,0095,3585,497

5,957 7876.3

4,4483,615

4,1104,542 4,616 4,761

4,724 4,9545,2845,710

6,926

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Deposits Loans

(Bil. Baht)

Note : As of Feb 2012Source : http://www.bot.or.th/Thai/Statistics/Indicators/Docs/indicators.xls:Table12 (29)

(30)

Thailand NPLs : Financial Institution Group

316,526268,825

380,130401,458

477,071592,171

641,883770,282

477,405

863,663

2,094,425

2,674,533

236,878

260,722

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1998

1999

*20

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

11

Note : * including New IBFs and Credit Foncier Companies since July 1999 ** Jan 2006 : Beginning data at end-December 2002 onwards, NPL data means loan classified as substandard, doubtful, doubtful of loss and loss, including the amount of doubtful of loss loan which has already been written off earlier but has not yet been written back. *** NPLs data is reported on quarterly basis i.e. Mar., Jun., Sep., Dec.. Therefore, there is

no change in other period except for revision owing adjustment by financial institutions. From Aug.2007 onwa

rds, NPLs will be reported at month ending q

Source : http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=428&language=TH

(Mil. Baht)

(Q1)

(31)

Labour Force Survey

13,389.40

16,698 17,462 19,019 21,09522,318

22,24224,538

15,98914,699

13,61713,63314,041

13,61113,830

13,80413,407 16,951

16,798.0116,35814,171

13,880

22,69622,54821,64018,49216,859

21,07521,515

19,960

34,728 35,257

39,493.7137,926.9239,19338,537

37,01737,43335,68533,84133,06032,10431,29330,63330,105

0

5,000

10,00015,000

20,000

25,000

30,00035,000

40,000

45,000

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Agriculture Non-agriculture Employment

(Thousand persons)

Note : As of Jan 2012Source : http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=93&language=th

(31)

(32)

Rate of Unemployment

1.7 1.5 1.5

2.4 2.2 2.11.8

1.40.90.680.43

0.810.8

1.5

3.33.6

4.24.4

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

(%)

Note : As of Jan 2012Source : http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=93&language=TH

(32)