1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation...

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1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012

Transcript of 1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation...

Page 1: 1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012.

1Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012

CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing

GPC – Washington

Summary Report

27 March, 2012

Page 2: 1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012.

Current Real-time Extended-Range Forecast Configuration

• Implemented April, 2011 – Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFS.v2)

• Old system

– Climate Forecast System version 1 (CFS.v1) – implemented September, 2004

– Still operational (at least until 31st October, 2012)

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Page 3: 1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012.

CFS.v1 CFS.v2

Atmosphere GFS 2003 (T62/L64) GFS2009 (T126/L64)

Land OSU 2-L NOAH 4-L

Ocean MOM3 MOM4

Sea ice Climatology Predicted

CO2Fixed at 1988 level Evolving with time

Initial conditions R2/GODAS CFSR

Hindcast 15/month ~24/month (4 runs / 5 days)

Forecast 4 runs/day4 runs/day (seasonal)16 runs/day (45 days)

http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/

CFS Version 1 vs. Version 2

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March, 2012

Page 4: 1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012.

CFS.v2 Real-time Forecast Configuration

• Coupled model

– T126/L64

– MOM4

– MOM4- Sea-ice

• Seasonal: 4 runs/day; 9-month predictions

• Monthly: 16 runs/day; 45-day predictions

• Initial conditions for the ocean, atmosphere, land are from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR)

• Real-time forecast products are calibrated based on the hindcasts climatology

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Page 5: 1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012.

CFS.v2 Hindcasts : Seasonal

• Period : 1982 - 2010

• 4 runs/day; every 5th day

• Hindcasts are used for

– Lead time dependent climatology

– Calibration (mean; standard deviation)

– Skill assessments and skill masks

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Page 6: 1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012.

CFS.v2 Hindcasts : Monthly

• Period : 1999- 2010

• 4 runs/day; 45 day

• Hindcasts are used for

– Calibration (mean; standard deviation)

– Skill assessments and skill masks

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Seasonal Forecasts

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Seasonal Forecasts : Hindcast Verification

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Nino34 SST standard deviation

CFSv1

CFSv2

Obs Obs

CFSv1 CFSv2CFS.v1 vs. CFS.v2

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Page 11: 1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012.

Hindcast anomaly Correlation – Sfc. Temp.

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T2M: HSS in Spatial Domain

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Monthly Forecasts

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Monthly Forecasts

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Page 15: 1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012.

a. CFS.v1

Seasonal: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/

Monthly: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/cfsFcst/cfsMonPlot/monthPlot.html

b. CFS.v2

Seasonal: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

Monthly: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/

Weekly: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2HCST/metrics/

Forecast Display

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http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfs_fcst/
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/cfsFcst/cfsMonPlot/monthPlot.html
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2HCST/metrics/
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a. CFS.v1

http://www.cdacb.in/html/spim_data.aspx

b. CFS.v2

NCEP: http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/raid0/cfsv2/reforecast.monthly

NCDC: http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#cfs-refor

Hindcast Data

a. CFS.v1

ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst/

b. CFS.v2

http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/cfs/prod/cfs

Forecast Data

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http://www.cdacb.in/html/spim_data.aspx
http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/raid0/cfsv2/reforecast.monthly
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#cfs-refor
ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/ST.opnl/MT.cfs_MR.fcst/
http://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/cfs/prod/cfs/
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National MME (NMME)

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Page 18: 1 Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center 27 March, 2012 CPC’s CFS.v2 Assessment and Implementation Briefing GPC – Washington Summary Report 27 March, 2012.

National MME (NMME)

• http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/

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Questions?

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