1. Aniol Esteban BEMEF Model
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The Bio-Economic Model of European Fleets (BEMEF) Griffin Carpenter and Aniol Esteban
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Transcript of 1. Aniol Esteban BEMEF Model
The Bio-Economic Model of
European Fleets (BEMEF)
Griffin Carpenter and Aniol Esteban
What is the BEMEF?
• …a tool designed to visualise the economic
impacts from fish stock restoration and
quota re-allocation.
• …for fleets where adequate data is available,
BEMEF calculates current and future
economic outputs including profitability,
wages, and jobs.
Resources – Report with main results
http://www.neweconomics.o
rg/publications/entry/manag
ing-eu-fisheries-in-the-
public-interest
Resources – Online model
Resources - Model (Excel)
Background
• Reformed Common Fisheries Policy now
in place
– Article 2.2 on MSY
– Article 17 on socio-economics
• Differing economic analyses leading up to
the reform.
Purpose
• Illustrate the potential
• Contribute to greater understanding
• Open up the black box
• Start new conversations
Structure
• Information from the Commission’s Annual
Economic Report on EU fishing fleets
• An extension of the EIAA model (Frost, et al)
• “Backward” model from quota level -> effort
• Uses estimates of future yield (MSY) and
biomass (BMSY)
Limitations
• Data coverage
– 211/603 fleets
– 24,526 vessels
– 73% of landings, 91% of quota
• Static
• Matching biological and fleet information
• Behavioural change
• No Med. and not much small-scale sector
Gains at MSY
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Baseline MSY
Ton
nes
Landings and MSY Projection for BEMEF Lithuania
Belgium
Sweden
Estonia
Latvia
Germany
Spain
Poland
Finland
Portugal
Ireland
Netherlands
France
United Kingdom
Denmark0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Baseline MSY
Mill
ion
€
Earnings and MSY Forecast for BEMEF
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Baseline MSY
Jobs and MSY Forecast for BEMEF
BEMEF results
If fish stocks were at MSY:
An additional 2.052.639 tonnes / year
Enough to meet the annual fish demand of 89 million EU citizens.
Baseline MSY
BEMEF results
If stocks were at MSY
Additional revenues of 1565 million Euro/year Additional profits of 824 million Euros / year
Baseline MSY
Baseline MSY
BEMEF results
If stocks at MSY:
An additional 20.362 to 64.092 new job posts. Average wage increase of 8.273 Euro/year
Modelling impacts
Profits More fish
€ € € More revenue Jobs
Wages
Quota allocation
Maximise jobs
(jobs/kg)
Minimise fuel use
(l/kg)
Minimise effort
(KW/kg)
Quota to allocate Historic
share
Maximise profit
(profit-subsidies/kg)
Trade-offs
4.6 4.0
4.5
8.3
6.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
LT MSY
Mill
ion
s o
f to
nn
es o
f C
O2e
Net Change in Carbon Emissions from Quota Allocation Scenarios at MSY
Historic Fuel Effort Jobs Profit
48,303 48,537 48,303 50,435 48,698
58,114 72,716
60,631
160,753
121,821
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Historic Fuel Effort Jobs Profit
Jobs from Quota Allocation at MSY
Fishing
Processing
32,894
27,408
34,322
17,233 18,297
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
€/y
ear
Net Change in Wages from Quota Allocation Scenarios at MSY
Historic Fuel Effort Jobs Profit
Ongoing development
• Updating data and improving estimates
• More detailed Member State level results
• Capturing non-use benefits, especially at port level
• Looking beyond quota species (i.e. Med and Inshore)
• Transition period under different scenarios to MSY
Ongoing development
Linking results to the port level where landings are reported by gear type and vessel length (MMO in the UK)
Policy implications
• TACs set above scientific advice
– 24% above and 7/10 stocks over past 15 years
– Positive trend (37% to 11%)
Excess TAC / pais (2001-2015)
Excess TAC / pais (2001-2015)
Find out more www.fisheriesmodel.org www.neweconomics.org
@NEF
Thank you
