1 - Analysis of a Decision

7/26/2019 1 - Analysis of a Decision

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WMD Crisis Incident Management

Analysis of a

Decision


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Objectives

Define three types of decision making command, group,and collaborative

Explain the usefulness of the three models

Discuss the differences between rational decision making

and crisis decision making

Describe the variables that affect decision making

Identify the criteria for successful decision making during a

crisis

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Types of Decision Making

CommandGroup

Collaborative

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Methods of Decision Making

Command leader collects and evaluates the neededinformation, then makes a unilateral decision based upon

his / her past experience

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Group leader joins the group and shares the responsibil ityfor the decision

Often takes place in a multiagency response or planning effort

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Decision Making Considerations

The action criteria Is the contemplated action

Necessary (now)? Risk effective?

Acceptable?Timing questions

Why did we take the action now?

What conditions have changed?

Were less risky alternatives tried?

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Collaborative combination of command and group models The leader collects the information from junior group members

and then makes a decision based on all sources of information,

analysis, and recommendations

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Decision Tree

A decision tree is a decision-support tool that uses atreelike graph or model of decisions and their possible

consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource

costs, and utili ty

Decision trees are commonly used in decision analyses todetermine a strategy that will successfully achieve a goal

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Decision Tree

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Talk

Agree

Disagreement

Do Nothing

Other Side MakesCounteroffer

Disagree /Take to Court

MaximumAward

MinimumAward

ProbableAward

Refuse and Goto Court

Make AnotherCounteroffer

MaximumAward

MinimumAward

ProbableAward

AcceptCounteroffer

Accept Of ferRefuse and Go

to CourtMake AnotherCounteroffer

Accept Of fer

Refuse and Go toCourt

MaximumAward

MinimumAward

ProbableAward

MaximumAward

MinimumAward

ProbableAward


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Decision-Making Variables

Time availableReadiness of employees to participate in the decision-

making process

Amount of information needed

Acceptance by followers

Quality and accuracy of the decision

Incoming information, available resources, and capabil ities

Organizational culture and structure

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Discussion Decision Making

Is executive-level decision making in a crisis environmentdifferent from normal or other types of decision making?

If you believe it is different, please explain why or how it is

different

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The Danger of the Rational

Decision Making Model

We tend to make decisions using this model in everydaynon-crisis situations

In a crisis, we do not have the advantage of having all the

time, money, and resources to carefully study unchanging

variables and make the best decision possible

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Decision-Making Variables

Affecting the Decision Maker

RankExperience

Knowledge, ski lls, and ability

Confidence

Capabilit ies available to be successful

Legal restrictions

Budget

Span of controlFatigue

Support of superiors

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Preparation Is the Key to Success

Have a current crisis planTrain yourself and your personnel to the requirements and

expectations of the crisis plan

Exercise and evaluate the plan in tough, realistic settings

Honestly assess performance

Take corrective actions

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Action Criteria

Is the action necessary? At this particular time

Within the context of the crisis

Is the action risk effective?

Will it increase or reduce risk

Is the action acceptable?

Legally

Ethically

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Improving Decision Making Under

Stress

Have a comprehensive crisis management planHave clearly defined goals

Stay current on pertinent information

Include others in decision-making process

Avoid the act ion imperative

Use action criteria

Conduct regular crisis simulation training

Rest Fatigue leads to bad decisions

Review past performance and take corrective action to

improve future performance

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Summary

Defined three types of decision making command, group,and collaborative

Explained the usefulness of the three models

Discussed the differences between rational decision making

and crisis decision making

Described the variables that affect decision making

Identified the criteria for successful decision making during

a crisis

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1 - Analysis of a Decision

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