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An Overview of the Region’s Financially Constrained

Long-Range Transportation Plan

John Swanson, Principal Transportation Planner

September 20, 2011Fairfax County Transportation Advisory Committee

National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board

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The Washington Region

Approximately 3,000 square miles

Includes over 5 million people and 3 million jobs.

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Federally Mandated Role: The TPB is responsible for coordinating planning and funding for the region’s transportation system.

Members: representatives of local governments; state transportation agencies; state and District of Columbia legislatures; and WMATA.

What is the Transportation Planning Board?

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Key Roles of the TPB

1. Federally required planning process

2. Forum for regional coordination

3. Technical resources for decision-making

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Federally Required Planning Process

The CLRP – Financially Constrained • Long-Range Transportation Plan • - Comprehensively updated • every four years• - Horizon must be at • least 20 years The TIP – Transportation Improvement Program• - Must be updated every four • years• - Always a six-year program

Key Documents

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Key Federal Requirements

Financial constraint — The CLRP & TIP may only include projects that can be “reasonably anticipated” to be funded.

Emissions impacts — The CLRP & TIP must meet the limits established in the region’s air quality improvement plan. This is called a “conformity finding.”

The Planning Cycle

• 20-30 years • NOT a wish list – Only includes projects that can be

“reasonably anticipated” to be funded– Reflects the region’s priorities

Projects must be in the CLRP in order to qualify for federal funds

CLRP must “conform” to regional air quality goals

What is the Constrained Long-Range Plan?

State Long-Range Plans

• Virginia– VTrans2025– TransAction 2030– State Highway Plan

• Maryland– Maryland Transportation Plan

(MTP)• District of Columbia– Strategic Transportation Plan

Financial Constraint

The CLRP puts a financial squeeze on state and other unconstrained long-range plans.

6-Year Programming

• Varies in every state• But in every state:

- Every new program begins with last year’s program. - The DOTs take the lead.

- State legislatures approve funding.

Virginia

SYIP

Maryland

CTP

D.C.

CIP

WMATA

CIP

Other 6-year

programs

The Regional

TIP

The TPB’s 6-Year Transportation Improvement

Program (TIP)

Land Use Forecasts

Change in Population and Employment Forecast, 2011-2040

What Shapes the Plan?

Fastest growth rate seen in the Outer Suburbs

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Land Use ForecastsWhat Shapes the Plan?

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Households and Jobs in Regional Activity Centers

•From 2005 to 2040, households in Regional Activity Centers will increase by 107% - more than twice the rate for the region as a whole.•By 2040, 55% of the region’s jobs and 19% of the region’s households are forecast to be concentrated in the Regional Activity Centers that make up less than 5% of the region’s total land area.

What Shapes the Plan?Financial Constraint

CLRP Expenditures 2011-2040CLRP Revenues 2011-2040

Highway ExpansionTransit ExpansionTransit Operations/PreservationHighway Operations/Preservation

FederalState/DCLocalTransit FaresPrivate/Tolls

$222.9 Billion

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What Shapes the Plan?Financial Constraint

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43%43%

14%

36%51%

13%

2006 CLRP 2010 CLRP

• Transit fares increased in 2010.• Federal and local funding for Metro

Rehabilitation expires in 2020. • Transit ridership will be

constrained at 2020 service levels.

What Shapes the Plan?Transit Fares and Constraints

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CLRP: 20092006• South Capitol Street Bridge• 11th Street Bridge• DC Streetcar: Anacostia Initial

Line Segment

2007• I-66 Spot Improvements inside

the Beltway• I-95/I-395 HOV/Bus/HOT Lanes• Potomac Yard Transitway,

Alexandria2008• I-95 and Fairfax Co. Parkway

Ft. Belvoir EPG Access Improv.• Columbia Pike Streetcar from

Skyline to Pentagon city

2009• Purple Line from Bethesda to

New Carrollton

Streetcar: H Street, NE and Benning Road, plus MLK Extension of Anacostia Segment

CLRP: 2010Projects Removed from the CLRP

1. I-95/I-495 Interchange at Greenbelt Metro Station2. Upgrade US 29, Columbia Pike from Sligo Creek

Parkway to Howard County line3. MD 201, Kenilworth Avenue from Rittenhouse

Road to Pontiac Street4. Upgrade/Widen US 301 from north of Mount Oak

Road to US 505. I-95 Interchange at Franconia-Springfield Parkway6. Widen US 1 from Stafford County line to Joplin

Road7. Widen VA 7 from Route 9 to Market Street8. Widen US 15 from VA 234 to Loudoun County

Line9. Widen VA 28 from northern limits of Manassas

Park to Old Centreville Road10. Widen US 50 from I-66 to western limits of Fairfax

City11. VA 7100, Fairfax County Parkway widen from VA

636 to VA 640 and construct from VA 640 to VA 7900

12. Widen/Upgrade VA 234 from south of Manassas to I-66

13. Widen/Upgrade VA 28 from VA 619 to AV 234 Bypass

14. Widen US 29 from US 50 to I-6615. Widen VA 123 from Horner Road to Devil’s Reach

Road

An additional 7 projects in Maryland and Virginia were delayed by at least ten years.

1

2

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5

6

7

8

9

10

1112

13

14

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Extend I-270 Widening and Improvements

Extend Construction

of VA 411 to US 50

2010 Summary• Due to the economic recession state and local

governments withdrew and delayed many significant projects

• No transit projects were delayed or removed– Corresponds to the first four policy goal recommendations

• Funding for bike/ped. projects increased by 30% from the FY 10-15 to the FY 11-16 TIP– Corresponds to the fifth policy goal recommendations

• TIGER grant funding provided the region a greater opportunity to move more transit projects forward in the CLRP

How Does the Plan Perform?

• Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) per capita• Reduce congestion on the region’s highway and

transit systems• Increase accessibility to jobs• Meet federal air quality standards and reduce

mobile-source NOx, VOC and PM emissions• Reduce mobile-source greenhouse gas emissions• Increase rate of construction of bicycle and

pedestrian facilities

Some of the key goals from the TPB’s Vision and COG’s Region Forward and Climate Change Reports include:

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Change in Travel Forecasts 2011-2040

43%

24%

-4%Transit Work Trips

Vehicle Work Trips

VMT

VMT per capita

Goal: Reduce VMT per capitaHow Does the Plan Perform?

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TruckTrips

35%

22%

Change in Travel Forecasts 2011-2040

VMT New Lane Miles

Lane Miles of Congestion(AM Rush Hour)

22%

11%

38%

Goal: Reduce CongestionHow Does the Plan Perform?

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Goal: Reduce CongestionHow Does the Plan Perform?

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Peak Hour Metrorail Passenger LoadsLine Current 2040

Red

Blue

Orange/Silver

Yellow

Green

Satisfactory (<100 people per car)

Congested (100-120 people per car)

Highly Congested(>120 people per car)

Goal: Increase Accessibility to JobsHow Does the Plan Perform?

Average Number of Jobs Accessible Within 45 Minutes25

5%

34%

Goal: Meet Federal Air Quality Standards

The CLRP meets federal air quality standards for mobile-source emissions of VOC, NOx, PM and Precursor NOx.

How Does the Plan Perform?

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Goal: Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

COG Goals 2010 CLRP

23.5

9.6

How Does the Plan Perform?

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Goal: Increase Construction of Bike/Ped Facilities

Funding for Exclusive Bicycle and Pedestrian Projects in the TIP has increased each year.

Does not account for road and transit projects that include accommodations for bicycles and pedestrians.

How Does the Plan Perform?

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$98$119 $124

$160

Significant Additions and Changes to the 2011 CLRP

1. H Street, NW Peak Period Bus-Only Lane

2. CRYSTAL CITY – POTOMAC YARD STREETCAR

3. I-395/I-95 HOV AND HOT LANES PROJECT LIMIT CHANGES

4. I-395 HOV LANES REVERSIBLE RAMP FROM/TO SEMINARY ROAD

5. WIDENING OF US 1 PROJECT LIMIT CHANGE

6. WIDEN I-66 GENERAL PURPOSE AND HOV LANES

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2. Crystal City – Potomac Yard Streetcarin Arlington County

This project will construct and operate a streetcar system that runs parallel to US 1 (Jefferson Davis Highway) from the Pentagon City Metro station to Four Mile Run at the city limit of Alexandria. The CLRP currently includes an exclusive bus transitway project along most of the same route that is scheduled to open in 2013. The streetcar system will replace the bus service in 2018.

Complete: 2018Length: 2.25 milesCost: $160 millionFunding:Federal, state and local

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3. I-395/I-95 HOV and HOT Lanesfrom 2 miles north of I-495 to VA 610

This project is currently included in the CLRP as a system of High-Occupancy Toll, or HOT lanes between Eads Street in Arlington County and VA 610 (Garrisonville Road) in Stafford County. HOT lanes will be available to HOV-3, transit and emergency response vehicles free of charge. Other vehicles may use the facility by paying an electronic toll. Tolls will vary based on time of day, day of week, and level of congestion in order to maintain free-flow conditions. VDOT is proposing to reconfigure the project, including the elimination of the implementation of HOT lanes on I-395 inside the Capital Beltway. The changes are summarized on the next slide.

Complete: 2015Length: 27 milesCost: $1.01 billionFunding: Federal, state, local and private

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3. I-395/I-95 HOV and HOT Lanesfrom 2 miles north of I-495 to VA 610

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Map Index

Current CLRPProject Includes

VDOT Proposed Change to Current CLRP Project

Description of Proposed Configuration

a 3 HOT Lanes 2 HOV Lanes Eliminate implementation of HOT lanes on I-395 inside the Capital Beltway

b 3 HOT Lanes 3 HOT Lanes(no change)

Widen existing HOV facility from 2 to 3 lanes on I-395 from I-495 to approximately 2 miles north, near Turkeycock Run and maintain as HOV lanes

c 3 HOT Lanes 2 HOT Lanes Widen existing HOV facility from 2 to 3 lanes on I-95 from I-495 to Prince William Pkwy,convert to HOT lanes

d 2 HOT Lanes 2 HOT Lanes(no change)

Convert existing 2-lane HOV facility from Prince William Pkwy to VA 234 to HOT lanes

e 2 HOT Lanes 2 HOT Lanes(no change)

Construct 2 new HOT lanes from VA 234 to VA 610

f 2 HOT Lanes 2 HOT Lanes (no change)

Two HOT lanes will continue 10 miles south to VA 17/US 1 Massaponax exit in Spotsylvania County.

VDOT is also proposing to remove the elements of the transit service plan currently in the CLRP. VDOT is working with local jurisdictions and transit agencies to redevelop transit improvements for the corridor.

4. I-395 HOV Lanes Reversible Ramp from/to Seminary Road

VDOT is proposing to construct a new reversible on/off ramp that connects Seminary Road and the I-395 HOV lanes to and from the south. This project adds HOV and transit access to accommodate the expected increase in travel generated by Department of Defense employees at the nearby Mark Center.

Complete: 2015Cost: $80 millionFunding:Federal and state

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5. Widening of US 1 from VA 235 South to VA 611

This project is currently included in the CLRP as a widening of US 1 (Richmond Highway) from 4 to 6 lanes from VA 235 South (Mt. Vernon Memorial Highway) to the Occoquan River/Prince William County Line. VDOT is proposing to remove approximately 4 miles of widening from the southern end of the project and change the southern limit to VA 611 (Telegraph Road).

Complete: 2020Length: 3.5 milesFunding:Federal and state

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Planned Widening

Removal of Planned Widening

6. Widen I-66 General Purpose/HOV Lanesfrom US 15 to US 29 (near Gainesville)

This project is currently included in the CLRP as a widening to construct HOV Lanes on I-66 between US 15 (James Madison Highway) and US 29 (Lee Highway) in Gainesville. VDOT is proposing to also add an additional general purpose lane in each direction to I-66 within the same limits. The completion date of the project is advancing from 2020 to 2018.

Complete: 2018Length: 2.5 milesCost: $132 millionFunding:Federal

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Schedule for the 2011 CLRP

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• March 12: Public Comment Period Closes• March 16: TPB Reviews Public Comments and is

asked to Approve Project Submissions and Draft Scope of Work

• October 13 – November 13: Public Comment Period on Draft CLRP and Conformity Analysis

• November 16: TPB Reviews Public Comments and Responses to Comments, and is Presented the Draft CLRP and Conformity Assessment for Adoption

“What if” scenarios: Different combinations of land-use and transit alternatives.

Looking beyond the CLRP

A Regional Transportation Priorities PlanHow should this plan reflect:– Regional land-use

goals?– More transportation

alternatives?– Pricing and funding

strategies?

Using scenarios to identify priorities

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More concentrated growth?

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Mixed-use & walkable communities?

High-quality buses?

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High-quality buses?

Funding?

How are we going to pay for all of this?

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New projects: Learning from recent examples

These projects all tapped direct beneficiaries for funding

New York Avenue Metro Station

Rail to Dulles

Beltway HOT LanesIntercounty Connector

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A network of variably priced lanes?

Online Searchable DatabaseMore on the CLRP and TIP

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$98$119 $124

$160

www.mwcog.org/clrp