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An Integrated Look at the Hydrology Program

Donna Page

25 Feb. 2009

HIC/ARC Meeting

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Transformation Requirements: Three Major Areas

NWS is committed to lead efforts to:

• Deploy the Community Hydrologic Prediction System via AWIPS II

• Produce a seamless suite of probabilistic water forecasts from minutes to years for decision support services

• Establish a Federal Consortium to leverage capabilities and deliver well coordinated water resources information and forecasts

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Outline

• Budget – PPBES

• Services Development

• RFC Implementation

• Vision for Customer Services

Looked at the Program from different views

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General Disclaimer

• First step in a process– Need your input to refine

• Timelines are high-level and preliminary– Especially in out years– More detail added in nearer years

• Better budget information• Better idea of schedules for nearer years

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PPBES Program View

2009 1110 1312 14 15 1716 1918 20

AHPS Develop and Implementation AHPS O&M

Water Resources (CHPS, DA, DM)

WR-CERIS (North Carolina)

WR-CERIS (Delaware)

IWRSS (FY12-16 proposal)

Hydrology Program Integrated Water Forecasting Program

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Proposed Elements of NOAA’s Integrated Water Forecasting Program (IWFP)

• River, Stream, and Local Area Forecasts (present WW-HYD)– Flash Floods– Streamflow – Water Resources

• Great Lakes (OAR)– Water Levels– Hazardous Spill Response

• Major Bays and Ports (NOS)– Water Levels– Currents

• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWS, OAR)– Precipitation Observations and Forecasts– Land Surface Conditions

• Research and Development (OAR, NWS, NOS, NESDIS)– Observations and Models (including Hydrometeorological Testbed)– Coupled Modeling Systems

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FY09 Core Goal R&D Funding PrioritiesHighest, High, Med, Low, Program Areas

1. Improve the quality of physical inputs and forcings (e.g. QPE, QPF, temperature, evapotranspiration, soil conditions, burn data, etc.)

2. Improve river forecasts by improving hydrologic models (Note: river forecasts include water supply forecasts)

3. Improve forecasts of fast response hydrologic events including debris flow4. Improve river forecast and warning services based on the effect of dam failures5. Improve hydrologic forecasts impacted by reservoirs and regulation6. Improve model connections / routing between model simulations (includes coastal effects)7. Improve flood forecast inundation maps (Static, Dynamic)8. Quantify the uncertainty of our forecast information9. Generate and disseminate information to and for our users10. Provide, then improve, gridded water resource data production capability 11. Provide, then improve, water quality forecasting capability12. Disseminate hydrometeorolgical data to the field (e.g. HADS)13. Software refresh – enhance the usability and/or internal workings of existing software14. Allow the hydrology community to more fully participate in research to operations (e.g. CHPS)15. Archive information required to support the Hydrology Program now and in the future16. Verify our forecast and uncertainty information17. Inform customers of our information and services, assess their satisfaction, and incorporate comments

and feedback into Hydrology Program planning18. Provide science and software training on Hydrology Program applications throughout the research to

operations cycle.19. Improve the efficiency and effectiveness of Hydrology Program management, including an

understanding of logistical measures20. Update and maintain the nation’s precipitation frequency estimates21. Define and coordinate Hydrology Program requirements with other NOAA programs and federal water

partners

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Funding & Core Goals

• AHPS– Uncertainty information (Ensembles)– Flash flood – Forcings– Flood inundation mapping (static)– Innovation (regulated rivers)– Verification– Web Services– New Service Locations

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Funding & Core Goals

• Water Resources (current)– Software Refresh (CHPS)– Forcings (Data assimilation)– Distributed modeling– Verification– Web Services

• Water Resources (CERIS NC start – FY10)– Hydraulics (River, Estuary, Ocean models)– Inundation Mapping – dynamic– Water quality (temperature)

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Funding & Core Goals

• Integrated Water Forecasting Program (FY12)– Forcings – Data assimilation (HPC, NSSL, NESDIS)– Hydraulics (NOS, OAR)– Software refresh (CHPS)– Distributed modeling– Coordinate with NOAA programs and federal water partners

• Integrated Water Resources Science and Services – Coordinate with NOAA programs and federal water partners– Software refresh (interagency integration)– Innovation (new services)

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Services Development View

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Services, Core Goals, Program Areas

Budget

Flood Inundation Mapping

Flash Flood Services

River Forecast Services

Forcings

XEFSCHPS Hydraulics

Verification

DM

Innovation Archive

Mapping

Flash Flood

Outreach Pgm MgmtTrainingWeb New Loc

Core Goal Teams

Program Areas

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Services, Core Goals, Program Areas

Budget

Flood Inundation Mapping

Flash Flood Services

River Forecast Services

Forcings

XEFSCHPS Hydraulics

Verification

DM

Innovation Archive

Mapping

Flash Flood

Outreach Pgm MgmtTrainingWeb New Loc

Core Goal Teams

Program Areas

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Services, Core Goals, Program Areas

Budget

Flood Inundation Mapping

Flash Flood Services

River Forecast Services

Forcings

XEFSCHPS Hydraulics

Verification

DM

Innovation Archive

Mapping

Flash Flood

Outreach Pgm MgmtTrainingWeb New Loc

Core Goal Teams

Program Areas

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River Forecasting Services

• Hydromet Obs and Forecasts (gridded obs/forecasts, MPE/GFE, Dual Pole, NMQ)

• CHPS (BOC I and II, XEFS 1 and 2, HEC-RAS, Verification, Archive, RFC hardware)

• Hydraulics (Inland river, REO)• Verification (logistical, RFC verif. online)• Distributed Model (prototype, CHPS)• CERIS (NC, DE)• IWRSS (interoperable databases, prototypes)

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Flash Flood Services

• QPF (HPN, Radar)• QPE (Gage analysis, HP• FFG (gridded ffg)• FFMP (FFG updates, small basin repository)• DH for FF (DHM-TF prototype, AWIPS)• FF Verification (ID events, StormDat)• Warning Generation (NGWT)• Dambreak (Doc&train, HEC-RAS, 2D model)

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Inundation Mapping Services

• Partnerships• Static maps (implement, add to interface)• Flood Risk Communications• Dynamic maps (prototype in CHPS)• Levee, Dam breech maps• Probabilistic forecast maps (prototype)• R-E-O maps

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RFC View

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RFC Implementation

Note: All schedules are preliminary

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RFC Implementation

2009 1110 1312 14 15 1716 1918 20

CHPS BOC 2

CHPS BOC 1

AWIPS II

XEFS 1

AWIPS II Extended

CHPS AWIPS

XEFS Proto

Dual Pole

RFC Hardware

XEFS 2

Prototype Archive

DHM in CHPS

CERIS (NC)

CERIS (DE)

IWRSS

MPE in GFE

GFE/NPVU

Thin Client Collab. Tools

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Customers

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Customer Services

Note: All schedules are preliminary

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Customer Service Vision

• 4,011 AHPS locations• River flood warning verification• Short term ensemble prototypes• NRLDB info on the web• Web prototype of short term ensembles coupled with

inundation mapping (Aptima proposal)• National water resource web service• Ensemble web service• CERIS web service• Probabilistic Water Surface Profile

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We Need Your Help

• Schedules will be posted on the walls this week

• What are we missing?

• Is the relative order right?

• Add your comments to the schedules

• Are there other ways to look at it?