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Science and Technology Infusion Plan

forNumerical Prediction

Science and Technology Infusion Plan

forNumerical Prediction

NWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002

NWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002

Jeff McQueen

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04/19/23

OutlineOutline

• Team Composition

• Vision

• Key Service Gaps

• Key NP Solutions

• Outstanding R&D Needs

• Infusion Strategy

• Summary

• Team Composition

• Vision

• Key Service Gaps

• Key NP Solutions

• Outstanding R&D Needs

• Infusion Strategy

• Summary

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Numerical PredictionTeam Composition

Numerical PredictionTeam Composition

• Jeff McQueen – NWS/OST

• Paul Dallavalle – NWS/OST

• Steve Koch – OAR/FSL

• Ralph Petersen – NWS/NCEP

• Jeff McQueen – NWS/OST

• Paul Dallavalle – NWS/OST

• Steve Koch – OAR/FSL

• Ralph Petersen – NWS/NCEP

• Dave Stensrud – OAR/NSSL

• Stan Benjamin – OAR/FSL

• Michael Smith – NWS/OHD

• Dave Stensrud – OAR/NSSL

• Stan Benjamin – OAR/FSL

• Michael Smith – NWS/OHD

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Increased Probabilistic Forecasts thru Ensembling & Postprocessing

Numerical Prediction

Improved Model Predictions:• Improved Initialization:

- Increased Use of Remote Sensed Data- Improved Small-Scale Data Assimilation

• More Realistic Physics:- Clouds, PBL, Radiation, Land & Water

Interactions

• Increased Resolution _

Vision

Common Model Framework

For Climate/Weather/Water

Drive Improved Applications- Aviation, Marine, Hydro, Tropical, AQ…

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Numerical Prediction Pathway to Unified Common Model Framework

Numerical Prediction Pathway to Unified Common Model Framework

2002

2007 2012

Global/

Climate

2020

Ocean

Regional

Hydrologic

Hurricane

Hazards/AQ

GFS

ROFS

Eta

RUC

SFM

NOAH/AHPS

Hysplit

GFDL

Coupled atm-ocean

global model

Coupled(L/A/H/AQ)

WRF Framework

Unified fully coupled framework for

climate/weather/water

time

Deterministic &Probabilistic

Coupled Land-atm-ocean-ice

global model

Coupled(L/A/H/AQ)

WRF Framework

Deterministic &Probabilistic

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Numerical PredictionKey Service Gaps

Numerical PredictionKey Service Gaps

Linking Model Advances to Service Improvements

• Improve Forecasts of Mesoscale Phenomena:

– Severe Storm, Gravity Waves, Turbulence

– Precip Types, Cloud, Surface Properties

• Improve Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities

• More Accurate Warm and Cool Season QPF

• Storm Track & Intensity Forecasts & Associated QPF

• Improve Week Two to Seasonal Range Forecasting

• Improved Forecasts of Global Ocean Conditions

• Implement Air Quality Forecasts

• Improve Forecasts of Mesoscale Phenomena:

– Severe Storm, Gravity Waves, Turbulence

– Precip Types, Cloud, Surface Properties

• Improve Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities

• More Accurate Warm and Cool Season QPF

• Storm Track & Intensity Forecasts & Associated QPF

• Improve Week Two to Seasonal Range Forecasting

• Improved Forecasts of Global Ocean Conditions

• Implement Air Quality Forecasts

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Improved Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities

More Accurate Mesoscale Phenomena Forecasts

Service Gap

Numerical PredictionKey Solutions

Numerical PredictionKey Solutions

Impact

• Provide a Range of Forecasts & Uncertainty

• Improved Forecasts Downstream of Data-Sparse Areas

• Advanced Ensembles (SREF;GFS)

• Targeted Obs Techniques• Ensemble PDFs, Neural Nets

• Improved Low-Level Wind Forecasts by 20%

• Improved Convection Forecasts by 15%

• Improved Cloud Properties (Icing, C&V..)

• Improved Visibility by 10%

• Improved QPF by 10%

• WRF(NA, HRW, RRW) , SREF• Advanced Data Assimilation• Remote Sensing Upgrades• Advanced Cloud Physics (WRF) • Improved Land Surface Models

(NOAH) & hydrologic coupling• Improved Observations into

Cloud Analyses & LDAS

Projected Solution

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Numerical PredictionKey Solutions

Numerical PredictionKey Solutions

• Provide Consistent Guidance

• Support EPA Mission

• Implement IOC w/ Transition to Fully Coupled WRF-ChemImplement Air Quality

Forecasts

• Increased Accuracy of ENSO/SST Anomalies

• 100% Ocean/Lake Coverage

• Gulf stream position

• Upgrade Global Ocean Data Assimilation System(GODAS) Coupled Land/Ocean/Ice GFS

• Upgrade Wave Model (10 km) • Great Lakes System

Improve Forecasts of Global Ocean Conditions

• Improve Week Two to Seasonal Forecasts of Temp/Precip/Hazards

• GFS, Global Ensembles• Seasonal Forecast Model• Coupled Ocean/Atm/Land

Improve Long Range Forecasting

• 20% increase in Intensity• Marine: 20% Improvement

• Hurricane WRF DA/Model• North Amer. WRF, GFS, HRW• Ensembles/ Targeted obs

ImpactProjected SolutionService Gap

More Accurate Warm Season Precipitation

More Accurate Cool Season Precipitation

• North Amer. WRF, GFS• Ensembles/ Targeted obs

•R/S Resolved w/in 30km•Mtn QPF Resolved to

30km

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Numerical Prediction Key S&T Solutions

Numerical Prediction Key S&T Solutions

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202

Deployment

Global, SREFProbabilistic

WRF SREF Multi-model*

Hydrologic

Hybrid veg/soil Distributed basin*

GFS T254Global

Coupled* ocean/atm/land

Common* Global-30/ Regional-3

Adv. Assim. * NPOESSRadar

Data Assimilation

Cloud/GODAS

Regional/AQWRF: NA-8, RR, HRWEta, RUC,HRW

cpld AQ WRF-4*Ozone

Physics

Existing cloud physics

Explicit cloud* & Adv physics Coupled AQ

DTE

R&D

OTE

Common* SFM/GFS

Climate Global Ocean Model

AHPS

SFM T62

Eta/GFS MOS Ensemble PDF Neural Nets

Super Computing 80x36x14x2x 9x

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Numerical Prediction Outstanding R&D Needs

Numerical Prediction Outstanding R&D Needs

• Enhanced Methods to Assimilate Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed Data

• Develop Small-scale Assimilation Techniques and Deploy Obs Database

• Improve High Resolution Physics

• Improved Hydrological-Ocean-Atmosphere coupling

• Develop Mesoscale Verification Techniques

• Improved Methods to Convey Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities

– Reduced Model Biases

– Merge Ensembles with High-Resolution Models

• Enhanced Methods to Assimilate Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed Data

• Develop Small-scale Assimilation Techniques and Deploy Obs Database

• Improve High Resolution Physics

• Improved Hydrological-Ocean-Atmosphere coupling

• Develop Mesoscale Verification Techniques

• Improved Methods to Convey Confidence Levels and Range of Probabilities

– Reduced Model Biases

– Merge Ensembles with High-Resolution Models

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Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy

Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy

• Emphasize Partnerships– WRF; ESMF (NOAA, NCAR, FAA, AFWA, Navy, NASA,

Universities)

• Develop Common Architecture – Common Model/Data Assimilation Framework

• WRF, Radiative Transfer Models, ESMF

– Multi-disciplinary Coupled Codes • Atmosphere, Hydrologic, Ocean, AQ

– Teragrid Concept for Increased Data Nodes

• Implement Modeling Testbed– JCSDA– NOAA/NCAR DTC

• Emphasize Partnerships– WRF; ESMF (NOAA, NCAR, FAA, AFWA, Navy, NASA,

Universities)

• Develop Common Architecture – Common Model/Data Assimilation Framework

• WRF, Radiative Transfer Models, ESMF

– Multi-disciplinary Coupled Codes • Atmosphere, Hydrologic, Ocean, AQ

– Teragrid Concept for Increased Data Nodes

• Implement Modeling Testbed– JCSDA– NOAA/NCAR DTC

NWS

Aviation

CoastalMarine

Severe

Observations NWP

Climate

Satellite

Hurricane

Universities,Labs, OtherUniversities,Labs, Other

Universities,Labs, Other

Universities,Labs, Other

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Numerical PredictionTowards a Common Modeling Infrastructure

Numerical PredictionTowards a Common Modeling Infrastructure

• Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model

• State-of-the-Science, Common Infrastructure System

• Supporting Advanced Regional- to Local-Scale Research & Operational Forecasting

• More Effective and Timely Transition of Research into Operations

• Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA

• Unified Global, Climate and Mesoscale Numerical Forecast System

• Improve Climate/Global/Weather predictions

• Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model

• State-of-the-Science, Common Infrastructure System

• Supporting Advanced Regional- to Local-Scale Research & Operational Forecasting

• More Effective and Timely Transition of Research into Operations

• Partners: NOAA, NCAR, USAF, USN, FAA

• Unified Global, Climate and Mesoscale Numerical Forecast System

• Improve Climate/Global/Weather predictions

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Numerical Prediction WRF Framework Supports Deterministic &

Probabilistic Forecasts

Numerical Prediction WRF Framework Supports Deterministic &

Probabilistic Forecasts

WRF Core 2

(ESMF)

WRF Core 3

WRF Core 1

Data Assimilation

Initial Conditions

& Ensemble

Perturbations

Physics Options

Aviation Marine

Tropical Severe Storms

Winter Wx

Hydrologic Air

Quality Hazards

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Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy: Testbed

Numerical Prediction Infusion Strategy: Testbed

DevelopmentalTest Centers

OperationalTest Centers

NCAR

OAR

NCEP

FNMOC

AFWA

Universities&

Labs

WRF Contributed

Code

WRF Reference

Code

WRF Operational

Code

NRL

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Numerical Prediction Summary

Numerical Prediction Summary

2007 20122012

Incr

easi

ng

P

erfo

rman

ceIn

crea

sin

g

Per

form

ance

2020202020022002

R&D NeedsR&D Needs

• Assimilation of Increasing Volume of Assimilation of Increasing Volume of Remote Sensed DataRemote Sensed Data

• Small-scale Assimilation TechniquesSmall-scale Assimilation Techniques

• Improved Representation of Non-Improved Representation of Non-Hydrostatic Scale Physics Hydrostatic Scale Physics

• Probabilistic ApproachesProbabilistic Approaches

• Mesoscale Verification TechniquesMesoscale Verification Techniques

• Common Climate/ Global System

• More Realistic Cloud Physics

• Improve Use of Existing & New Observations

• WRF Framework

• Advanced Ensembling

• Cloud Analysis

• Adv. Small-scale Data Assimilation

• Adv. Physics/ Coupled AQ

Vision

Common Model Framework

For Climate/Weather/Water

Supporting NWS Service missions

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Back UpsBack Ups• Roadmaps

• Resolution Time-Series

• Observational Needs

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Data Assimilation RoadmapData Assimilation Roadmap2002 2003 2004 2005

EDAS/GDAS (3DVAR) RUC 3DVAR & Cloud

analysisimpr. background error covariances

G/EDAS Cloud analyses

GPS, Jason altimeter

5 additionalAll models

Rawinsonde Improved: AllAdaptive Obs Winter N. Pac

EDAS/RUC: Higher Res

EDAS:Mesonets, COOP

Improved:All

Real-time Greenness fraction

Soil moisture/snow cover

GDAS/EDAS/RUC via Cloud drift winds

GDAS/EDAS G/EDAS: higher res RUC

LDAS

Infrared Instruments

EDAS/GDASG/EDAS

NOAA/AMSU A-B GDAS/EDAS over land RUC over landDMSP/SSM/I GDAS/EDASNPP/ATMS

NPOESS/ATMS QUIKSCAT/Seawinds GDAS/EDAS

TRMM/PR GDAS/EDASNASA/GPM/DPR

EDAS/RUC: TPW

EDAS: 88D level 3 radial velocities

Upper Air

Data Assimilation

GFDL FDDA, Sat altimeter, insitu, MCSST & AVHRR SST, QUIKSCAT

SURFACE

NEXRAD

RADAR

Techniques

EDAS/RUC: Level 2 superobs

Ocean

ORDA

Dual Pole

Atmosphere

Water Vapor Sensor

Winds

Polar Orbiters Sounders

Microwave Instruments

T,V,RH, Pres, precip

Land sfc

GOES, EUMETSAT, JMA

Geostationary Sounders

METOP/IASINPOESS/CrIS

GPS Radio Occultation

MDCRS

SATELLITE

NOAA/AVHRRNPP/VIIRS

GOES (radiances, PW)

Polar Orbiter Imagers

NOAA/HIRS

Geostationary Imagers

GIFTS

AQUA/AIRSNPP/CrIS

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Numerical Prediction RoadmapNumerical Prediction RoadmapNOAH-EDAS & RUC

land sfc hybrid coupling

NOAH-LDAS R-T greenness fraction

Uncoupled Global/SFM LDAS (obs precip)

2nd order closure

6 species microphysics

Bulk radiation

Eta/Global: Improved LW/microphysics effects

AGCM: T62L28/7mo/1x-mo, 21 mem ensemble

SFM: T62L28/7mo/1x-mo,

21 mem ensemble 1-way ocean 4DDA &

coupling

SFM:T126L42/7 mo/ 1x-mo, 21

Ensemble, 1-way ocean coupling

RSM: 32k ensemble for threats

Statistical downscaling Principle Compon. Anal. Neural Networks

Global

GFS: T170L42/384h/4xGFS:T254L64/384h/4x

Eta 12kL60/2x-84h/4x Eta 10kL65/84h/4x

20kL50/12h-8x/3h-16x18kL50/12h-8x/ 6h-

16x

NMM 8kL64/48h/1x WRF 8kL64/48h/1x4kL40/24h/1x 2 WFOs, LAPS-WRF 4kL40/24h/1x

LAPSHOT-WRF

20 km/48h/1x East coast testing

20 km/120 h/ East coast/ Gulf

Mex 20 km west coast

GFDL 18kL42/72h/4x coupled 2 nest/Atl

GFDL 18K L42/72h coupled 2 nest, GFS

Physics/Atl+Pac GFDL 15K L64/72h coupled 2 nest

WW III/0.25 deg/72hWW IIIM/15 mem ens/5 day/Global

& Regional

Hemispheric/25 km/72hRiver Forecasts Lumped conceptual -> Downscaling NWP

Flash Flood Site Specific--> Coupled hydro-QPF Coupled hydro-QPF 50 AHPS sitesSite Specific--> Distributed basin w/flash flood

Hydraulic 1-D unsteady flow

routing

Lumped conceptual: 22 km NA, 60 km Global, statistical climate

High Resolution Window (HRW)

Numerical Prediction

Atmospheric Physics

Climate

North American

Surface/Land

Boundary Layer

Clouds

Radiation

Statistical tools

Global Forecast System (GFS)

Coastal Ocean Forecast System (COFS)

Hurricane

Waves

Sea-ice

Ocean

Hydrologic

North American

RUC/RRW

HRW-NCEP

Local-scale

Global climate

Regional climate

20002 2004

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Architecture Key S&T NP TimelineArchitecture

Key S&T NP Timeline

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202

Deployment

OTE

DTE

R&D

GFS 95kL42 SREF 48kL50Probabilistic

Multi-model 70kL60 SREF 12kL64

Ocean

North America (4x/day)

Cpld 80kL64 Annual

AGCM 381k28L 7mo-1/mon

Climate (1/mon)SFM 95kL64

HRW (1x/day)

NMM 8kL64 48h/3 h

Global (4x/day)

GFS 55k64L384h/3h

GFS 45k64L 384h /1h Cpld 30kL100

RUC 20kL50/12hRRW (8x/day)

ROFS 20k/Atl 48h/ 24h

GFS 90kL42 SREF 18kL60

Eta 12k64L84h/3h

RRW 11kL60/12h RRW 8kL70/18h 12x

WRF 8k70L84h/1h

WRF 4k/100L96h/1h

WRF6kL70 48h/2 h

WRF 2k/100L 48h/1 h

ROFS 20k/glb 5 day Cpld 20k/glb 2 week

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2003 2007 2012

Physics

Dta Assim

Regional

Global

Numerical Prediction AdvancesResolution and Ensemble Members

Numerical Prediction AdvancesResolution and Ensemble Members

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Ho

rizo

nta

l R

eso

luti

on

(km

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

# En

semb

le Mem

bers

Global

Reg. Ens.

Regional

Reg. Ens. Mem

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Ho

rizo

nta

l R

eso

luti

on

(km

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

# En

semb

le Mem

bers

Global

Reg. Ens.

Regional

Reg. Ens. Mem

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04/19/23

Numerical Prediction AdvancesSupercomputing Increases

Numerical Prediction AdvancesSupercomputing Increases

FY03: 1408 1.3 Ghz SP Processors

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04/19/23

Numerical PredictionKey Observational Gaps and S&T Solutions

Numerical PredictionKey Observational Gaps and S&T Solutions

Observational GAP

Projected Solution Expected Impact

Mesoscale wind thru troposphere

(highest res in PBL)

Better use of existing obs Enhanced ACARS/MDCRS

Space borne wind lidars, NPOESS

Upgrade NOAA profilers

Improved accuracy of short-term trop. Wind forecasts

Mesoscale moisture especially in PBL

WVSS-2/AMDAR upgrades

GPS IPW

Improved accuracy of short-term cloud, visibility, temperature forecasts

Improved observations in data sensitive areas

Targeted observations methods Improved winter/tropical

storm prediction

Improved cloud properties observations

Dual pole radars

88D superobs

GIFTS

Improved storm & cloud analysis and prediction

Improved land/water/ snow surface roperties

NPOESS

COOP modernizationImproved hydrologic & short term temperature forecasts

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04/19/23

Ensemble ForecastsEnsemble Forecasts

Ensembles can provideinformation on the likelyrange of forecast parametersand forecast uncertainty to users

Mean value

Range

Ensemblespread canbe used to determinehow observationaldata influences neighboring regions indata assimilationschemes

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04/19/23

Next-Generation Operational ModelsCloud-scale Modeling

(dx = dy = 2 km, dz = 500 m, dt = 12 s, 160 x 160 x 20 km domain )Surface temperature, surface winds and cloud field at 2 hours

Many Science and Technology Questions Remain

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04/19/23Potential Cloud-scale model benefits

12-hour NWS12-hour NWSForecastForecast

(unable to(unable torepresentrepresentindividualindividual

thunderstorms)thunderstorms)

Moore, OKTornadic

Storm

2-Hour CAPS Computer Forecast Down to the Scale of Counties

NEXRAD Radar Observations

Moore, OKTornadic

Storm

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04/19/23Numerical Prediction AdvancesDissemination Requirements

2007

Numerical Prediction AdvancesDissemination Requirements

2007

27

04/19/23Current Operational Forecast Models

Current Operational Forecast Models

Operational forecast models predict:• Mesoscale and synoptic flow patterns• Precipitation via parameterizations that are unable to resolve

individual storms

Important storm-scale weather cannot be resolved:

Operational forecast models predict:• Mesoscale and synoptic flow patterns• Precipitation via parameterizations that are unable to resolve

individual storms

Important storm-scale weather cannot be resolved:

USING THIS

TO ANTICIPATE THIS

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04/19/23

Towards aCoupledModeling Systemwithdownscaling tohydrology models

SSTPREDICTION

GENERALCIRCULATION

LATERALB.C.

REGIONALCOUPLED

ATMOS-LANDMODEL

10 - 30 km

PRECIP, Ts,LAND-SFCFORCING

REGIONALUNCOUPLEDLAND-HYDRO

MODEL1-10 km

RUNOFFSNOWPACK

STREAMFLOWSOIL MOIST

GLOBALCOUPLED

ATMOS-LANDMODEL

30 - 100 km

GLOBALLAND4DDA

GLOBALATMOS4DDA

GLOBALOCEAN4DDA

REGIONALLAND4DDA

REGIONALATMOS4DDA

GLOBALCOUPLED

OCEAN-ATMOSLAND MODEL100 - 500 km

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