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2008 EEA/JRC/WHO report on impacts of climate change in Europe

3rd Advisory Group meeting

Copenhagen, 23 April 2008

Introductory chapters

André Jol, EEA

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Main aim of introductory chaptersMain aim of introductory chapters

• Policy framework, objectives and outline of the report (ch. 1)

• Climate change science (ch. 2)

• Observed climate change (intro) (ch. 3)

• Projected climate change (intro), risks and the EU long term target

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Climate change “science” (Ch.2)Climate change “science” (Ch.2)• Text from IPCC and other sources

• Some graphs from IPCC, some “own” graphs outinoutin

Figure 2.1Incoming sunlight is partly reflected by aerosols and clouds in the atmosphere and by the surface of the Earth.

Figure 2.2Heat radiating from the Earths surfacein the form of infra-red radiation willbe partly absorbed by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Figure 2.3When the incoming radiation equals the outgoing radiation for several hundreds of years, the Earth is will obtain a constant mean temperature

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Observed climate change and cascade of effects (Ch.3)Observed climate change and cascade of effects (Ch.3)

• Text from IPCC and other sources

• Map adapted from IPCC, one “own” figure on cascading effects

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Observed climate change and cascade of effects (Ch.3)Observed climate change and cascade of effects (Ch.3)

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Figure 3: K

ey impacts as a function of increasing global average tem

perature change 1

1A

bove 1980-1999 levels. T

o express the change relative to the period 1850-1899, IPC

C WG

II adds 0.5 degrees C

EU 2° C objective

Projected climate change, risks, EU target (Ch.4)Projected climate change, risks, EU target (Ch.4)

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Projected climate change, risks, EU target (Ch.4)Projected climate change, risks, EU target (Ch.4)

• Box 4.1 The Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

• Box 4.2 European climate change impacts and adaptation research

• Box 4.3 What are the risks of non-linear climate change?

• Box 4.4 Limiting global temperature-rise to 2°C above pre-industrial level