1. 2 THE ECONOMY OF PAKISTAN -Some Thoughts Presentation by: PROF. DR. KHAWAJA AMJAD SAEED Principal...
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Transcript of 1. 2 THE ECONOMY OF PAKISTAN -Some Thoughts Presentation by: PROF. DR. KHAWAJA AMJAD SAEED Principal...
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THE ECONOMY OF PAKISTAN- Some
Thoughts
Presentation by:PROF. DR. KHAWAJA AMJAD SAEEDPrincipal HAILEY COLLEGE OF BANKING & FINANCEUniversity of the Punjab, Lahore.Email: [email protected]
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WELCOME TO OUR
PROGRAM
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PRESENTATION
1 Overall Framework PEST Formula 2 Constitution of Pakistan3 Global Tributes to Pakistan4 GDP5 Federal Budget 2006-076 Growth in Federal Government Revenue7 Corporate Income Tax Rates8 Energy9 China Factor 10 Pakistan-Economy Final Review
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1: OVERALL FRAMEWORK
P Political
E Economic
S Sociological
T Technological
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2: CONSTITUTION OF PAKISTAN
Article Focus03 Elimination of Exploitation18 Freedom of Trade, Business or Profession37 Promotion of Social Justice
and Eradication of Social Justice
38 Promotion of Social and Economic Well-being of the People
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1: World Bank - Managing Director October 2006
1. Rich in Human Capital
2. Impressive Record
- Growth
- Development
- Poverty Alleviation
3. Continuous Economic Reforms
3: GLOBAL TRIBUTES TO PAKISTAN
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4. Inflation-Down
5. Government: 5-10 Years Plans
- Water
- Energy
- Food Security
- Infrastructure
- HRD
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6. Privatization Program
7. Gawadar-Corridor
- Trade
- Transportation
- Energy
- Central Asia & China.
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2: IMF-September 2006
Tributes
1. Excellent Medium Term Planning
2. Strong FDI
3. Growing Domestic Investment
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3: Economic Freedom Index 2006Pakistan 110 better than India
India 121
4: Opacity Index
Economist London Pakistan rated higher
than India
5: Moody’s Investors Service-2006Pakistan’s Rating Improving B2 to B1
Foreign and Local Currency Bonds
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4: GDP
PakistanAverage Four Years 7.0%2005-06 6.6%Others World 4.8%Euro 1.3%USA 3.5%Japan 2.7%Germany 0.9%
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China 9.9%
Asian South Asian 5.0%
- India 8.0%
- Pakistan 6.6%
- Sri Lanka 5.9%
- Bangladesh 5.8%
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5: FEDERAL BUDGET 2006-07Outstanding Features
1. Record ADP Rs 435b2. Record Allocation to Provinces:
- Revenue Budget Rs 378b- ADP Allocation Rs 115b
3. Record forecast for Rs 1,083bCurrent Revenue
4. Special Allocations ADP- Programs Rs 34b- Areas Rs 17b- ERRA Rs 50b
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6: GROWTH IN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE
Year Rs b % Growth Index
2005-06 1,096 214 -05 900 175 -04 791 154 -03 721 141 -02 624 122 -01 553 1081999-00 513 100Source: Excerpted from Pakistan Economic Survey 2005-06, Statistical Appendix, Table 4.3.
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7: CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATES
Year Public Company%
Private Company %
Bank%
2004
35 41 44
2005
35 39 41
2006
35 37 38
2007
35 35 35
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8: ENERGY
A: Needed
1. Cheap
2. Abundant
3. Environmental Friendly
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B: Electricity Use %
1. Households 43
2. Industry 28
3. Agriculture 12
83
4. Commerce 07
5. Others 10
100
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C: Energy Perspective MW
Short Term
2007 1,000
Medium Term
2008-2010 45 Power Plants 8,600
Long Term
31 Projects (Hydel & Nuclear) 19,150
28,750
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Impact
Job Creation
- Direct 08 Lac
- Indirect 16 Lac
24 Lac
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D: Installed Generation of Electricity Capacity %
1. Wapda
(Hydel 58% + Thermal 42%) 58
2. IPPs 30
3. KESC 09
4. Nuclear 83
100
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E: Issues MW
1. Untapped Hydel Potential 50,000
2. Line Losses
3. Solar Energy
4. Wind Energy
5. Austerity/Consumption Planning
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9: CHINA FACTOR
1. Population Currency
1.3b Renminbi (Yaun)
2. Language
Mandrin
3. World Ranking & other Economic Data
Exports 4th
GNP 6th
Per Capita $960
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3. World Ranking & other Economic Data
Inflation 0.8%
Unemployment 2%
4. Strengths
1. High Domestic Market
2. Food Self Sufficiency
3. Mineral Resources
4. Diversified Industrial Sector
5. Low Wages
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6. Rapid Sustained Growth 7. Growing Exports8. Hong Kong as a Financial Sector 9. Heavy Investment in Communication
and in IT Sectors5. Weaknesses
1. Corruption2. Underemployment 3. Geographical Disparities 4. Poor transportation
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Export-Destination %
1. USA 22
2. HK 18
3. Japan 18
4. Taiwan 13
5. South Korea 10
6. Germany 06
7. Others 13
Total 100
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6. Contributions to Pakistan
1. Karakrum Highway
2. Heavy Mechanical Complex
3. Chasma Nuclear Plant
4. Gawader
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7. Upcoming Investment
1. Five years Linkage
2. Private Sector Industrial
Estate in Punjab
- Gawader
- Refinery
- Other Investment
- 32 Point joint statement
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10: PAKISTAN-ECONOMY FINAL REVIEW
Positive
1. GDP Growth 7%
2. KSE Bullish
3. FDI Robust
4. Consumer Credit from Growing
5. Poverty Alleviation 10% down Levels since 2000
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Negative
1. Income Distribution Skewed
2. Trade Gap Widening
3. Growth Non Sustainable
Source: Edited from IBP Newsletter, November 2006.
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