1 1 The Network Effect ©1998 [email protected] The Network Effect Prof. ir. Jaap W.J. van Till...

11The Network Effect

©1998 [email protected]

The Network Effect

Prof. ir. Jaap W.J. van Till

Stratix Consulting Group BVAmsterdam Airport Schiphol

Corporate Network ChairInformation Technology and Systems FacultyDelft University of TechnologyThe Netherlands

Monday Oct. 19. +/- 11.00 - 11.45, Prague, Czech Republic

UNIVERZITY KARLOVY V PRAZE - 650th yearKonference Oct. 19 - 21, 1998



Agenda

1. Introduction

2. Economic growth drivers and what limits them. Bandwidth Bottlenecks.

3. What causes the demand explosion for datacommunication. Who needs it most, now.

4. Is there an upper bound for this bursty, self-similar traffic?

5. How can we approach the problems The Staircase Model, IP on Lambda, Smart Photon Trucks

6. What next. Bandwidth Hotels and Server Farms

Future- proof ? Transformations !!!Future- proof ? Transformations !!!



The demand for bandwidth by applications like electronic mail and World Wide Web grows exponentially, because of falling costs and standardisation on the Internet Protocol

• The transatlantic bandwidth from the Netherlands available for IP has already overtaken the capacity for telephony

Gigabit/s

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Transatlantic capacityfor IP from the Netherlands

Transatlantic capacity for telephony from the Netherlands

• The transatlantic bandwidth from the Netherlands avialable for IP has already overtaken the capacity for voice telephony



2. Economic growth drivers and what limits them.

• Knowledge work : “Interactions” between people Economy USA: 54 % of worktime spent on i-i

Europe: 48%, India: 36%

• Networking crosses boundaries of time and distance

• Bandwidth Bottlenecks: bit volume, packet behaviour

Bandwidth availability, digital line capacity Requirements: no-fail, manageable,scalable,cost



What causes the exponential “explosions”:

• the network effect, new lifeform ?why :

• Metcalfe’s Law : N*(N-1) , reach more• van Till: the telescope model, better picture!



NETWORK

Differentangle

The telescope metaphore : a better picture for all

distance

size



Groups

Indiv. People

KnowledgeWWW

Computer systems

Network connections

Tribes

The new weaving of networks



3. What causes the demand explosion for datacommunication. Who needs it most, now.

• High speed computer applications, supercomputers

• Backbones for Telecom and Media: TV

• Small business, SOHO, services, outsourcing of tasks, JINI millions of PC’s connected



From functional- to processes - to units/networking -structure view

Products

Information

Network of smallcompanies and units

The Network Economy

N ?

Out-tasking



Network impact : a new division of authority in the Network Economy?

End of distance and time: “transparency” leads to “glocal” subsidiarity:

• some isssues are discussed and decided on much higher global levels

& at the same time

• some issues are discussed and decided on much lower local levels

EU : a network of interconnected city-states ?The end of intermediary layers like nation-states?



Telecom Infrastructure Model

houses

SMEs

corporations

Local city Regional National International

Geography

Functional

Commercialvalue chains

TRANSMISSION

SWITCHING /ROUTING

website/webhosting

Telephony SwitchesInternet Routers/Hubs

Internet AccessProviders

InternetService

Providers

local loop = leased line!

TVcable

wirelesssatellite

Telecommunication- & Computerapplications

CONTENT

USER

LAN's

PABX’s

PC withbrowser,

Fax, TV set

Telephones

and producer

of content

IP dialtone

Dialtone

Mobile telephony services

Network service prov.Network operators

GSM services billing

Networkbilling

Customer care

Networkmanagement

Helpdesk services

Optic fiber networks

Leased Lines

telephony servicese-mail services

Transmission licencespublishers

studios

Program broadcastingschedules

microwave links

Connection billing

Network operationsHelpdesk and monitor

Fault management links

GSM networks

webpages

Private ground

resellers

teletext



The Playground

ICT functionality

Home

SME

Company

CPE

localloop

BBISP’s

Country widebackbones

Int’lNetworkServices

tfncentr

CATVlan,pabx

computers ISPwebserver

DNSWLL

geography



Clients Servers Archives

small business home LAN carrier services large business

users

user interface

application

storage

processing

switching

transmission

sites

Internet

LAN

server local dial in

CATVnetpacket radioor city ISDN

switch

cable TV, ISDN

Dial demander PPP

general magic

PCadm

Notes EDInovell

Internet(access)Service Provider

IP, Networkframe relay, ATM

videoNotes

infoservices EDI

Functionality

store and forward platform

PDA’sintelligent workstations

disk replication

ISP

SOHO



4. Is there an upper bound for this bursty, self-similar traffic?

Bus Behaviour of millions of powerful computers : 400 Mb/s peak load for each PC

• Volume growth < 20 % average load on link !• Growth inequalities: Zipf Law*): big junctions attract traffic• Bursty, self similar traffic: fractal Mandelbrot *) rainfall

(diff from voice)• The big pipes are in the periphery of the network not in the backbones (diff from voice, TV) Turn the multiplexers around for IP traffic??Can TDM (ATM, SDH) scale up fast enough ??? IP/L (IP on Lambda) opt. Cross connects, DWDM*) Benoit B. Mandelbrot; Fractals and Scaling in Finance -discontinuity, concentration,

risk- Springer Verlag 1997; ISBN 0-387-98363-5



5. How can we approach the problems : & Combinations The Staircase Model, (weaving on many functional levels)

WorkstationApplications

Information

Hard- disk IP

Eth , HUB

Frame Relay

Switched Gigabit Ethernet ATM

SDH / SONETCombinations of:

(GSM mobile)Workstations, JINI, LAN, Servers, PBX, Hub, IP, Frame Relay, Gigabit Ethernet switch, local Etherloop on unbundled UTP/coax, WLL, ATM, SDH-c, DWDM, Optic X-Connect, optic fiber, plastic pipe.

Opt.Fiber PipeOpt. Xconn

DWDM

Servers, ISP services

(edge) Routing

PBX

Policy based switching

CPE public grounds



6. What next: parallelism

• Multiple networks (geographical weaving) Tradeoff’s between avialabity and cost, processing and bandwidth Shared connections : one bus <----- Fourier Butterflies---> totally meshed

Eyes and Lenses for our networked telescope ! Smart messages : photon trucksBandwidth hotels and server farms for smart knowledge workers!



We wish you good connectionsand positive Network Effects !!!



Jaap van Till is one of the directors of the Stratix Consulting Group,which specialises in helping to define corporate strategies in the face ofuncertainty and change. One of their recent projects is to define andpropose a gigabit/s speed, Internet-2 type, testbed for the Netherlands,funded by the government. He is professor at the Delft University ofTechnology for the Chair of Corporate Networks, on the subjectof defining large scale Internet- and intranet infrastructures. Jaap is member of the Board of the Netherlands Chapter of the Internet Society (ISOC.NL). http://huizen.dds.nl/~vantill/

1 1 The Network Effect ©1998 [email protected] The Network Effect Prof. ir. Jaap W.J. van Till...

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