Hettish Kumar KarmaniSenior Financial Analyst

Global Investment House

GCC Cement Sector – Overview & Outlook

GCC – Economy … Growing at a full swing (Cont’d)…

Source: IMF &Global Research

GCC, a region with a nominal GDP of over USD1.0tn and an average per capita of USD24,000 is expected to grow exponentially in 2011.

The real GDP growth for the GCC in 2011 is projected to grow by 5.9%.

Political tensions in the region are expected to increase the oil prices above the previous years average.

Within GCC, Qatar is expected to outperform with nominal GDP growth expectation of more than 20% for 2011.

GCC Nominal GDP (USD bn) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010EBahrain 15.8 18.4 22.1 19.3 21.7 Kuwait 101.6 114.7 148.0 109.9 129.0 Oman 36.8 41.9 60.3 46.1 53.8 Qatar 60.5 80.8 110.7 98.3 108.9 Saudi Arabia 356.2 384.7 476.3 375.6 434.8 United Arab Emirates 175.2 206.4 254.4 249.0 252.7 GCC 746.1 846.9 1,071.8 898.2 1,000.9

9.6%7.6%

CAGR (06-10)8.2%6.2%

10.0%15.8%5.1%

Fiscal Balances as % of GDP

Source: IMF, Global Analysis

Current Account Balances Population GrowthUSD bn

210

190

260

57

133175 185

28.7%22.8% 24.1%

6.6%

13.0%15.7% 17.5%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P 2011P 2012P

Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP)

36.5 37.8 38.8 39.8 40.9 42.2 43.7 45.5

3.5% 3.4%

2.8% 2.6% 2.8%3.1%

3.5%

4.2%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

2007 2008 2009 2010P 2011P 2012P 2013P 2014P

Population % Growth

22.4%

17.0%

26.4%

2.1%

7.0%10.3% 10.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P 2011P 2012P

Central Government Fiscal Balance

GCC – Economy … Growing at a full swing

732 836

1,077

868 1,021

1,118 1,210

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P 2011P 2012P

Nominal GDP

Nominal GDP USD bn

GCC Cement Sector

GCC cement capacity rose from 55mpta in 2006 to 110.0mtpa in 2010, CAGR of 18.4%

GCC cement capacity is 2.8% of the World’s total capacity and 32.1% of the MENA region.

Per capita cement consumption in GCC is the highest in the World.

Saudi Arabia leads with a capacity of 52.8mtpa, 48% of the GCC.

Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait & Qatar make upto 14% of the capacity, rest by UAE.

GCC Cement Companies Capacity(mtpa) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013eUAE 16.7 23.7 29.5 34.3 40.8 40.8 40.8 43.0 Saudi Arabia 28.7 33.0 43.8 46.0 52.8 53.8 56.2 58.0 Oman 4.0 4.5 5.4 5.4 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 Bahrain 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.0 Qatar 3.1 3.1 3.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 Kuwait 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 GCC 55.4 67.2 84.7 94.9 110.0 113.9 116.7 120.7 Source: Company Reports & Industry Sources

* Included both listed and unlisted companies

GCC Projects Markets – Picking pace post 2008/09 slowdown

GCC Projects Market Size (Dec - 2010)

Source: MEED

-

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia

UAE GCC

(US

D b

n)

On Hold Planned

Contracts Awarded in MENA

Source: MEED

3.0

8.0

13.0

18.0

23.0

1Q-0

7

2Q-0

7

3Q-0

7

4Q-0

7

Avg

. …

1Q-0

8

2Q-0

8

3Q-0

8

4Q-0

8

Avg

. …

1Q-0

9

2Q-0

9

3Q-0

9

4Q-0

9

Avg

. …

1Q-1

0

2Q-1

0

3Q-1

0

4Q-1

0

Avg

. …

(US

D b

n)

Projects Market Analysis

GCC projects markets has grown from USD360bn in 2004 to USD2.8tn at end of 2008. Hi / Low of USD2.6tn / USD2.0tn between 2009-10.

Overall 25.5% of the total projects are on hold worth USD621.5bn as of Dec 2010.

Country with most active projects pipeline is Saudi Arabia at USD601.8bn and UAE at USD411.4bn.

Bahrain & Oman make up around 9.8% of the active projects market.

GCC Cement Demand ExpectationsOverall Project Announcements (USDmn) 2,174,215.0 (2011-2017)

On Hold Projects 25.5% 621,574.0 Active Projects 74.5% 1,552,641.0 Expected Building & Construction Related Projects 40.0% 621,056.4 Require Cement, Blocks & Others 50.0% 310,528.2 Cement Revenue as % of Build & Cons Sector in GCC 11.7% 36,469.4 Cement Price per Ton as of 2010 (USD/Ton) 64.0 Resulting Cement Demand (2010-2017) (mn Tons) 569.8 Annual Cement Demand (mn Tons) 81.4 Source: MEED & Global Research

GCC Cement Demand & Supply

GCC Demand Supply Gap Scenario (mn tons)

Source: Global Research

(5.00)

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F

GCC Supply GCC Demand GCC Surplus / (Gap) - RHS

Supply has surpassed the demand.

By 2011 end, their will be additional 28mtpa.

UAE has excess supply of around 20-21mtpa.

8

Utilization Rates – Dropped significantly

GCC Cement Companies - Utilization Rates

Source: Global Research

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F

Utilization rates have been on the decline ever since capacity build-up started.

Stability in utilization rates is expected as only few new capacities are coming online.

Mergers & acquisition can help prop up the utilization rates.

Cement Prices - Under pressure…

Average Cement Prices (USD/Ton)

Source: Listed Companies of GCC

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1H-09 9M-09 2009 1Q-10 1H-10 9M-10

Price (USD/Ton) % Chg

Post 2008, cement prices have continued to decline.

UAE has the lowest prices at USD51.8/ton.

Kuwait being net importer has a higher price tag at USD75.1/ton

Factors influencing cement prices

Source: World Bank Pink Sheets & Bloomberg

-

2,000.0

4,000.0

6,000.0

8,000.0

10,000.0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

9M-2

010

Baltic Dry Index (x)

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

9M-2

010

Crude Oil, Avg, Spot (USD/bbl)

-

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

9M-2

010

Natural Gas, US (USD/mmbtu)

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

9M-2

010

Raw Material Index (x)

GCC Cement Sector – Financial Performance (Cont’d)

11

Sales revenue in GCC rose from USD2.6bn in 2004 to USD3.0bn in 9M-2010. High of USD4.9bn was made in 2008.

Net income of the listed companies grew from USD1.2bn to USD2.2bn in 2007. Currently standing at 2003-04 levels of USD1.1bn in 9M-2010.

Debt 17.2% of the total assets of 9M-2010 at USD2.3bn

Ratios 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 9M-10Gross Margins (%) 45.1% 46.1% 47.7% 46.1% 38.9% 39.2% 40.4%Operating Exp as % of Assets 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 1.4%Non-Core Income as % of PAT 19.0% 31.8% 11.9% 26.1% -10.8% 9.6% 15.7%Operating Margins (%) 39.3% 40.4% 42.0% 40.3% 33.6% 32.9% 34.2%Net Margins (%) 46.7% 54.6% 45.3% 50.6% 28.5% 32.0% 38.0%Financial Charges as % of Debt 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 5.8% 3.2% 3.1% 1.5%Debt as % of Assets 5.4% 8.1% 8.3% 7.9% 14.9% 14.1% 17.2%Liabilities as % of Assets 15.0% 17.1% 17.3% 17.1% 25.6% 23.6% 25.1%Equity as % of Assets 85.0% 82.9% 82.7% 82.9% 74.4% 76.4% 74.9%Return on Equity (%) 20.9% 22.7% 19.0% 21.0% 14.5% 14.2% 11.1%Return on Assets (%) 17.8% 18.8% 15.7% 17.4% 10.8% 10.9% 8.3%Source: Company Reports & Global Research* Consolidated Financials of 24 Listed Companies

12

GCC Cement Sector – Financial Performance (Cont’d)

Positioning Gross Margins & ROE Positioning Operating Margins & ROA

F.Chg as % of Debt & Debt as % of Assets Non-Core Income as % of Net Inc. & Net Margins

Source: Company Reports & Global Research* Performance of 23 Listed Companies as of 1H-2010

KSAOman

UAE

KuwaitQatarGCC

0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%

10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

Retu

rn o

n Eq

uity

Gross Margin

KSA

Oman

UAE

KuwaitQatar

GCC

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0%

Retu

rn o

n As

sets

Operating Margin

KSA Oman

UAE

Kuwait

QatarGCC

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

0.0% 50.0% 100.0%

Net

Mar

gin

Non-Core Income as % of Net Income

KSA

Oman

UAEKuwait

Qatar

GCC

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

Deb

t as

% o

f Ass

ets

Financial Charges as % of Debt

COUNTRY PROFILE

14

Oman

Two listed cement players. One new entrant to come online with a new capacity.

Net importer of Cement.

Rich with natural resources and raw materials.

Oman Development Plan (2011-15) and Oman Vision 2020 to fuel government spending.

Ratios 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 9M-10Gross Margins (%) 50.1% 49.8% 54.3% 52.1% 40.0% 45.6% 50.5%Operating Expense as % of Assets (%) 4.6% 4.2% 5.4% 5.5% 7.6% 7.4% 4.0%Non-Core Income as % of PAT (%) 11.7% 14.2% 12.6% 13.9% 8.0% 15.1% 25.2%Operating Margins (%) 38.3% 38.8% 42.2% 40.1% 27.5% 32.7% 37.9%Net Margins (%) 36.5% 39.2% 42.2% 42.3% 26.0% 33.6% 46.2%Financial Charges as % of Debt (%) 3.8% 2.3% 4.7% 1.2% 1.3% 2.3% 0.8%Debt as % of Assets (%) 10.7% 11.9% 8.1% 3.4% 2.3% 2.5% 3.2%Liabilities as % of Assets (%) 26.9% 26.5% 24.0% 14.3% 13.8% 12.3% 12.0%Equity as % of Assets (%) 73.1% 73.5% 76.0% 85.7% 86.2% 87.7% 88.0%Return on Equity (%) 19.6% 20.2% 24.8% 22.6% 18.4% 21.8% 16.6%Return on Assets (%) 14.3% 14.9% 18.8% 19.4% 15.8% 19.1% 14.6%Source: Company Reports & Global Research

15

Saudi Arabia

Country with 15 cement companies. (8 Listed and 7 Unlisted)

Exporter of Cement but partial export ban in place.

Rich with natural resources and raw materials.

KSA 9th Development plan (2010-14) expects 67.2% spending rise to SAR1.4tn.

Ratios 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 9M-10Gross Margins (%) 55.6% 59.1% 61.1% 60.7% 56.9% 54.1% 52.6%Operating Expense as % of Assets (%) 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0%Non-Core Income as % of PAT (%) 10.4% 5.1% 4.9% 5.0% 6.5% 5.2% 3.1%Operating Margins (%) 51.3% 53.8% 56.2% 57.1% 52.4% 48.6% 48.5%Net Margins (%) 56.6% 54.3% 57.1% 58.1% 54.1% 48.0% 47.8%Financial Charges as % of Debt (%) 1.1% 0.4% 0.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.9% 0.8%Debt as % of Assets (%) 2.9% 7.6% 6.8% 9.5% 14.1% 12.0% 16.1%Liabilities as % of Assets (%) 13.2% 19.0% 18.6% 22.3% 23.7% 23.7% 24.3%Equity as % of Assets (%) 86.8% 81.0% 81.4% 77.7% 76.3% 76.3% 75.7%Return on Equity (%) 24.0% 24.4% 25.9% 27.5% 23.2% 19.8% 15.4%Return on Assets (%) 20.8% 19.7% 21.1% 21.4% 17.7% 15.1% 11.7%Source: Company Reports & Global Research

16

United Arab Emirates (UAE)

More than 18 cement companies. (9 Listed)

Exporter of cement with excess supply of 20mn tons.

Few emirates with natural resources i.e. Ras Al Khaimah

Abu Dhabi supporting the demand well.

Ratios 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 9M-10Gross Margins (%) 35.0% 40.5% 39.1% 31.8% 27.5% 21.8% 11.6%Opt. Expense as % of Assets (%) 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.4%Non-Core Income as % of PAT (%) 29.2% 51.2% 6.4% 45.7% -149.2% -12.0% 83.6%Operating Margins (%) 29.8% 35.6% 34.1% 27.1% 22.9% 16.1% 4.0%Net Margins (%) 40.1% 69.0% 35.1% 41.2% 8.3% 11.2% 12.0%Financial Charges as % of Debt (%) 5% 10% 5% 24% 10% 3% 3%Debt as % of Assets (%) 5.4% 3.6% 5.3% 3.9% 8.0% 13.2% 15.3%Liabilities as % of Assets (%) 14.4% 9.3% 12.2% 10.8% 20.9% 19.8% 22.4%Equity as % of Assets (%) 85.6% 90.7% 87.8% 89.2% 79.1% 80.2% 77.6%Return on Equity (%) 17.2% 23.0% 11.5% 14.7% 4.4% 4.6% 2.8%Return on Assets (%) 14.8% 20.8% 10.1% 13.1% 3.5% 3.7% 2.2%Source: Company Reports & Global Research

17

Kuwait

Three listed cement producers.

Importer of cement.

Lacks natural resources and lesser land granted for industrial expansions.

Kuwait development plan of USD125bn to prop up the demand.

Ratios 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 9M-10Gross Margins (%) 24% 20% 27% 28% 21% 26% 31%Operating Expense as % of Assets (%) 3.5% 2.2% 2.0% 4.2% 3% 3% 2%Non-Core Income as % of PAT (%) 52% 85% 47% 83% 561% 18% 44%Operating Margins (%) 17% 15% 22% 13% 15% 20% 23%Net Margins (%) 29% 44% 36% 57% -3% 17% 34%Financial Charges as % of Debt (%) 4% 5% 5% 6% 4% 4% 3%Debt as % of Assets (%) 18% 13% 17% 12% 32% 26% 20%Liabilities as % of Assets (%) 24% 20% 20% 15% 38% 37% 31%Equity as % of Assets (%) 76% 80% 80% 85% 62% 63% 69%Return on Equity (%) 18% 22% 18% 18% -2% 12% 11%Return on Assets (%) 14% 17% 14% 15% -1% 7% 8%Source: Company Reports & Global Research

18

Qatar

Two listed cement players.

Importer of cement.

Qatar World Cup successful bid to keep the cement demand rolling.

Qatar Vision 2030 and spending plans to maintain demand supply gap.

Ratio Analysis 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 9M-10Gross Margins (%) 37% 24.3% 23.6% 25.9% 20.2% 27.6% 43.8%Operating Expense as % of Assets (%) 5.1% 3.0% 2.9% 1.6% 1.3% 1.7% 1.2%Non-Core Income as % of PAT (%) 39.8% 49.9% 47.7% 44.8% 48.9% 51.6% 16.3%Operating Margins (%) 23% 14.2% 14.3% 21.4% 16.1% 21.8% 36.3%Net Margins (%) 38% 27.7% 25.7% 36.7% 31.4% 31.5% 44.1%Financial Charges as % of Debt (%) 0% 0.0% 0.8% 7.0% 1.6% 4.6% 0.7%Debt as % of Assets (%) 0% 20.5% 16.8% 11.6% 31.9% 22.7% 30.5%Liabilities as % of Assets (%) 6% 30.4% 21.1% 16.6% 44.4% 27.3% 35.2%Equity as % of Assets (%) 94% 69.6% 78.9% 83.4% 55.6% 72.7% 64.8%Return on Equity (%) 15% 11.7% 10.1% 16.2% 17.8% 12.9% 10.5%Return on Assets (%) 14% 8.2% 8.0% 13.5% 9.9% 9.4% 6.8%Source: Company Reports & Global Research

19

Outlook

Political tensions fuelling oil prices, favoring GDP and budgets of GCC countries.

Development plans worth billions to keep the demand progressing.

New entrants would continue to take away the market share.

Increase in price of raw materials cannot be ruled out in the short term.

Horizontal and vertical integration would be the way forward.

Depressed realization prices would put pressure on margins of the producers.

Exports from neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Iran and Egypt to continue.

Raw material quarries in Ras Al Khaimah (UAE), Raysut (Oman) and Saudi Arabia to benefit local producers.

Qatar, Oman and Kuwait to remain in the net importer zone in the short to medium term.

20

Thank You

Hettish Kumar KarmaniSenior Financial AnalystGlobal Investment Househkumar@global.com.kw00965-94435771www.globalinv.net