VectorVest09:00 Welcome and Introduction ... Franking (Imputation) Credits •Tax Credit •Paid by...

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Special Notice

VectorVest, Inc. will do everything it can to insure the safety of your personal possessions while you are attending the Seminar. If you would like us to watch your computer during lunch, please take it to our registration table, where you will receive a claim check for it. In any event, we cannot assume any responsibility for lost or missing personal property.

VectorVest

Welcome and Introduction

1

About VectorVest

Stock Analysis & Portfolio Management Software provider

• In Business 30 Years

• Fourteen Countries (AU 1800 shares, USA 9000, Total 23 000)

• Software

Mathematical, Rules based

Uses combination of fundamental and technical for share analysis

Integrates this with a unique market timing system….

To give share portfolio management tools to help subscribers decide when to buy shares, which shares to buy and how to manage their share portfolios using a variety of risk management techniques

PowerPoint Slides

2

PowerPoint Slides

To get a copy of these PowerPoint Slides

Place In Browser:

www.vectorvest.com/e‐reports/event/AUWorryFreeInvesting.pdf

Safe Shares are necessary in this Market

3

Share Market Risks in 2017

Overall—expect more volatility and risk in 2017

• Global

Trump/USA

China

Brexit

EU

Other‐Russia, Japan, Iran

• Local

Political Environment

Debt, Budget Deficit, AAA Credit rating

Inflation, Interest Rates, Company Earnings

AUD/USD

Property vs Shares vs Bonds

Typical SMSF Share Portfolio

4

Performance of this Portfolio

NAB RESEARCH

• One in two Australians falling short on wealth goals

• 50 per cent blame lack of confidence

• One in four have a plan to save and invest

• Funding a desired lifestyle was key objective

• On average require about $800 000 investments (excluding home equity)

* MLC Wealth Sentiment Survey Dec 2016

5

There are Opportunities

USA is going well

• Pro Business President and Administration

• Anecdotal feedback from small and medium business owners

• Lower company & individual tax rates

• Infrastructure Investment

USA Share Market

6

There are Opportunities

Australia• Positive outlook from RBA• According to FN Arena:

Over the past 4 months

Hefty profit upgrades by analysts Average EPS forecasts for the share market in 2017 increased from 6‐

7% to between 13‐19% A big chunk of this growth won't show up until the August reporting

season, but even so the underlying trend is firmly upwards and by then the average might well be a lot higherIf these numbers still stand by the end of August, the Australian share market might well be about to experience its strongest year for profit growth post‐GFC

• Commodities/Resources Sector• Shares with USA exposure

Global Factors will continue to create volatility which increases risk

But in this environment, with the right tools, you can capitalise on the opportunities to Maximise Returns and Minimize/Manage Risks created by expected volatility

7

WFI Terminology

• Minimise Risk‐‐Capital Preservation Safe Shares ‐ strong financial performance (strong fundamentals)

Safe Shares ‐ stable price pattern (strong technical)

• Maximise Returns‐Growth and Income Safe Shares that are undervalued, going up in price with potential for

further Capital Appreciation

Safe Shares with Safe, Reliable Dividends with Franking credits

Safe Shares with growing dividends underpinned by growing earnings

Worry‐Free Investing

You need the Best Investing Tools available to suit your:

Investment Objectives

Investment Style

Risk Appetite

Worry‐Free Investing Agenda

09:00 Welcome and Introduction

09:10 The VectorVest System For Analyzing Shares

09:30 Assessing the Health of Your Portfolio

09:45 When to Buy Shares and When to Protect your Portfolio

10:15 Break

10:45 Replacing the Losers with the Best Worry‐Free Shares

11:15 Build and Manage a Worry‐Free Portfolio in all Market Conditions

12:15 VectorVest Coaching, Support and Training

12:30 Adjourn

Worry‐Free Investing Workshop

The VectorVest System

for Analyzing Shares9:10am ‐ 9:30am

1

The VectorVest WFI System

VectorVest believes in:

Buying safe undervalued shares rising

in price in rising markets and

protecting your portfolio in falling

markets.


VectorVest believes every Investor should know:

What a share is Really Worth.

How Safe it Is.

When to Buy, Sell or Hold.

2

VectorVest Share Analysis Technique

1. Spread Sheet Analysis‐snap shot

2. Graph Analysis‐trend

1. Spread Sheet Analysis

For Definitions, right click on any share to “View Full Stock Analysis Report”

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1. Spread Sheet Analysis

To change Spread Sheet Columns, right click on any share & choose “layout”, highlight indicator & move up, down, left or right

Value

Value is computed from:Forecasted earnings per share

Forecasted earnings growth

Profitability

Interest rates

Inflation rates

Undervalued shares are preferred to overvalued shares

4

Relative Value

An Indicator of Long‐Term Price

Appreciation Potential

Price, Value, Earnings Growth, Relative Safety

(Risk), and Corporate Bond Rates are used to

compute Relative Value.

Relative Safety

An Indicator of Risk

Consistency and Predictability of Financial

Performance are the Primary Factors in

Assessing Relative Safety.

5

Relative Timing

An Indicator of Short‐Term Price Trend

The Direction, Magnitude and Dynamics of Price

History are used to determine Relative Timing.

VST ‐ Vector

The Master Indicator

VST‐Vector combines RV, RS and RT into a single

comprehensive indicator.

This combination incorporates both fundamental

and technical analysis.

6

Stop Price

An Indicator of When to Sell or

Cover a Position

A 13‐Week Moving Average of Closing Prices

adjusted for the fundamentals of RV and RS is

used to compute Stop‐Price.

*Analysis as of 07/03/2016

Company Sym. Price Value RV RS RT VST STOP REC

A2 Milk Co A2M.AX 3.88 3.05 1.51 1.18 1.72 1.50 3.31

Com. Bank CBA.AX 82.24 56.65 0.95 1.31 1.09 1.13 77.79

TPG Telecom TPM.AX 5.58 8.76 1.44 1.02 0.79 1.09 5.59

Shares Ranked by Recommendation

7


Buy, Sell or Hold Criteria

1. Price > Stop Price

2. VST > 1

3. RT > 1

4. Price must be diverging away from Stop Price

Price < Stop Price

Price > Stop, but any one of the other three

factors needed to receive a Buy are not met.

Comfort Index

An Indicator of Long Term Price Stability

Reflects a stock's ability to resist severe and/or lengthy price declines

8

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Leading 12 months Forecast Earnings Per Share

Determined from a combination of :

• Recent earnings performance and

• Traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.

Earnings Growth Rate (GRT)

Reflects a company's one to three year forecasted earnings growth rate in percent

per year.

9

Dividend Growth

Forecasted annual % growth rate of a company's dividend based on historical

dividend payments and dividend predictability

Dividend Safety (DS)

An indicator of the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or

higher rates for the foreseeable future. Shares with high DS values have shown consistently strong

financial performance and including solid cash flow.

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Franking (Imputation) Credits

• Tax Credit

• Paid by issuing company

• Can add 2‐3% to dividend return

2. Graph Analysis

VectorVest Simple Rules

– Smooth rising left to right price patterns

–Respect of stop line

–Rising RT

–Rising EPS (The engine of share price growth)


Assessing the Health of

Your Portfolio9:30am ‐ 9:45am

1

Create a Watchlist of Your Shares

Use Watchlist to Analyse your Shares

2

Using QuickTest Tool

Use QuickTest to Count Winners & Losers and measure raw performance.

Use Graphs to Complete Your Share Analysis

3

Analysing your Shares

Good Shares• Undervalued (Price<Value)

• RV>1

• RS>1

• RT>1

• VST>1

• B rated

• CI>1

• Growing Earnings per Share


4


VectorVest Simple Rules

– Smooth rising left to right price patterns


–Rising RT

–Rising EPs (The engine of share price growth)

Example of a Good Graph

5

Example of a Bad Graph

Cleansing your Portfolio

Identify the shares dragging your portfolio down by re‐ranking WatchList by RT

The underperformers are those with:

– RT < 1

– REC = S

– To confirm underperformance, graph each share using VV Simple graph layout


When to Buy Shares

and When to Protect

Your Portfolio9:45am ‐ 10:15am

1

Big Mistake Investors Make:

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Market Direction

Direction is the key to making money in any market.

“Being on the wrong side of the market is the worst thing that can happen to an investor. It

doesn’t have to happen to you.”‐ P. 70 ‐ Stocks, Strategies and Common Sense

Market Timing Graph

Used to Help you Decide When to Buy Shares (and When to Protect Your

Portfolio)

3

Worry‐Free Market Timing

Market Timing Graph

4

Worry‐Free Market Timing

The Worry Free Investing makes use of the Confirmed Signals

1. The confirmed signal is our most conservative market signal

2. You will get into the market when uptrend established and out of the market when downtrend established.

3. By using confirmed signals you are less likely to experience false signals from the market

4. Let the winners run and protect your portfolio by money management/stop losses.

Most Frequently used Market Timing Signals

Confirmed Signal (most conservative)– We will use this Signal for Worry Free Investing. – For Buy Signal Confirmed Up plus Green light in price column– Protect Portfolio on Confirmed Down

DEW Signal (Protrader Technical)

GLB/RT Kicker Signal (Technical)– Uses 5 and 20 day simple moving average of RT. – Buy Signal when 5 DMA> 20 DMA plus Green light in price

column – Protect Portfolio on Confirmed Down

VectorVest

Break

10:15am – 10:45pm


Replacing Losers with

the Best Worry‐Free

Shares10:45am – 11:15am

1

Finding Replacement Shares

• Know your investment style and risk appetite

• Make sure the market is going up!

• Analyse Shares using VectorVest Indicators and

Graphs

Finding Replacement Shares

Investment Styles & Strategies

2

The VectorVest WFI System

VectorVest believes in:

Buying safe undervalued shares rising

in price in rising markets and

protecting your portfolio in falling

markets.

Managing Market Trends

How it Works:BUY SAFEST

STOCKS

DON’TBUY

S E L L S T O C K S W H E N S T O P P E D O U T

3

When to Buy Shares

• Confirmed Up Signal

• Green Light in Price Column of Color Guard

What Shares to Buy

Stock Viewer Spreadsheet Analysis

• Preferably Undervalued

• RS>1 (RS is the key for Worry Free Investing!)

• VST>1

• B Rated

• CI>1

• EPS>O

• DY, DS>50, DG>0

4

Finding Replacement Shares using Stock Viewer

What Shares to Buy

VectorVest Simple Graph Analysis

– Smooth rising left to right price pattern


–Rising RT

–Rising EPS (The engine of share price growth)

5

Using VectorVest Simple Graph

Safe Shares‐Earnings Consistency

• The single most important factor in assessing stock safety Dr. DiLiddo – Stocks, Strategies and Common Sense

Pg. 31

• Companies with a record of consistent predictable earnings are less risky

• Correlation between Price Stability and Earnings

• Earnings underpins Dividend Safety

6

Earnings Consistency Graph Analysis

Safe shares have Earnings Consistency


7


Unsafe Share‐Earnings Problem

Correlation between Long Term Price Stability and Earnings

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9

Strong Earnings Underpin Dividends

Falling Earnings and Dividend Sustainability

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Graph Analysis‐Sustainable Dividend?

Graph Analysis‐Sustainable Dividend?

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Graph Analysis‐Sustainable Dividend?NAB profit edges down in December quarter‐unaudited cash earnings fell 1% in Dec 2016 quarter (07 February

2017)


Build and Manage a Worry‐Free Portfolio in all Market Conditions

11:15am – 12:15am

1

Managing a Worry‐Free Portfolio

Money Management Rules

– Never risk more than 1‐2% of your capital

– Spread risk evenly across shares

– No more than 2 shares per industry

– Buy into rising market one at a time

– Never give back more than 50% of your profit

Never risk more than 1% of your capital

$100 000 x 1% = $1 00010 Positions of $10 000 each$ 1000/$10 000=10% stop Loss

$100 000 x 1% = $1 00020 Positions of $5 000 each$ 1000/$5 000=20% stop Loss

$50 000 x 1% = $5005 Positions of $10 000 each$ 500/$10 000=5% stop Loss

2

Tools used to Manage a Worry‐Free Portfolio

Watchlists

Graphs

Managing a Worry‐Free Portfolio‐Graph

Graph using VV Simple High alert– Volatility– Falling EPS Action triggers‐4 Step Method of Portfolio Management– Falling price: 1st warning– Cuts 40 DMA: 2nd warning– RT<1: 3rd warning– REC=S: 4th and last warning

Act on appropriate warning depending on your risk appetite, but most investors would get out on 2nd or 3rd warning and not leave it until REC=S which is the last resort

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Managing a Worry‐Free Portfolio‐WatchList

Example: Managing a Worry‐Free Portfolio

4

Replacing the Losers

Golden Rule: Only Buy Rising Shares in Rising Markets

Step 1: Go to Market Timing Graph to get Market Direction, and if OK..

Step 2: Go to Stockviewer to find Replacement Shares & Graph them

The Most Common Mistake New Subscribers Make

Go to StockViewer and Buy Top B Rated Shares without doing anything else No checking what the market is doing (Market

Timing)

No Spreadsheet and/or Graph Analysis

No 4 step management rules or stop losses

5

Example for Discussion

Example for Discussion

Buy Top 2 StockViewer Shares on C/Dn 24‐5‐17 Buy Top 2 StockViewer on C/Up 14 Dec 16

Hold until 21 June Hold until 24 June 17

6

What Investors Should Do Before Deciding to Buy

1. Check What The Market is doing ‐‐ensure:

Confirmed Up

Green Light in Price Column of Color Guard

2. Then Go to StockViewer and perform:

Spread Sheet Analysis

Graph Analysis

3. Ensure Shares meet your Worry Free Criteria before final decision

4. Ensure you use 4 step management rules or put your stop losses in place

Final Wrap upMinimize Risk (Capital Preservation) & Maximise Returns

(Growth & Income)

Buy safe undervalued shares that are rising in price in Rising Markets with:

• The potential to go up in value

• Good fundamentals (especially earnings)

• Stable price patterns (strong technicals)

• Reliable, Growing Dividends with Franking Credits

Always Use

• Spreadsheet Analysis

• Graph Analysis

Keep It Simple


VectorVest Coaching, Support & Training

12:15pm

1

Resources for Your Success

1. Welcome Tab – Interactive Tutorials and Videos

2. Training Tab – 3 Quickstart Videos, Help Files, VectorVest 7 Quick

Reference Guide

3. Personal Coaching – Recommended after you complete the above

4. Webinars – www.vectorvest.com.au/Events

5. VectorVest University – SOTW and other Training Videos

6. User Groups – Check Locations and Dates Friday’s in Views

7. Dr. DiLiddo’s Little Green Book – Stocks, Strategies and Common

Sense

8. Support and Training – Call 1800‐303‐782

Home Page

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Training Tab

Mission Statement

Our Mission is to provide the best stock market guidance available anywhere at any

price.

VectorVest Contact Information

Seminars: 1800‐303‐782

Product Support and Training:

1800‐303‐782

E‐mail: [email protected]

[email protected]

VectorVest

Adjourn

12:30pm

VectorVest09:00 Welcome and Introduction ... Franking (Imputation) Credits •Tax Credit •Paid by...

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