09 - Population Growth Resources
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Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Engineering & Society:Population Growth & Resources
Dr. Gershon WeltmanEngineering 183EW, UCLA SEASLecture 9
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2Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Today’s Headlines
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3Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Humans Are Recent Arrivals
A Million Years of Human Growth
Universe - 6B Years Earth - 4.5B Years Bacteria - 2.5B Years Multicell Biota - 600M Years Human Beings ~ 2M Years 1 Billion People ~ 200 years
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4Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
A Closer Look
Last 12,000 Years
200 Million 1 Billion
0 2000
6 Billion
-10,000
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5Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Three Growth Eras2
6 B
1
2
3
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6Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Population Growth Factors
Agriculture Animal Domestication Intensive Crop Production
Urbanization Shelter and Transport Water and Energy Sanitation & Health Services
Industrialization Distribution of food, goods and medical products Worldwide Economic Growth Increased Family Resources
Medicine Medical: Cleanliness, Infection Prevention, Hospitalization: Isolation of illness Nutrition: Fertility, Individual Health Longevity: Infant Survival, More child-bearing years
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7Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Dramatic Effect of Industrialization
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
020000-6000 -4000 -2000-8000
Per Capita Gross Product
The IndustrialRevolution
Malthusian Trap
Industrial Surge
After William Rosen “The Most Powerful Idea in the World,” Random House, New York, 2010
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8Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
UN Fertility Trends (2004) Fertility rate is
average number of childbirths per woman
Above 2.1 is growth, below 2.1 is decline
Developed nations at 0 or minus growth
Developing nations also dropping but still positive
Education and greater affluence contribute to drop
We are Here
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9Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Interrelationships are Complex5
2040
9.5B9.5B
Assumptions• Resources = 1990x2• Consumption = 1990
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10Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
UN Population Projections (2004)
Nominal Projections 8.9B at 2050 9.2B peak at 2075
Broad Projection Range 5.5B to 14.0B by 2100 2.3B to 36.4B by 2300
We appear to be in high range of 2050 estimates
Long term projections depend on many not fully known factors
Much uncertainty exists, both in 21st century and in following centuries
We are Here
Higher fertility
Lower fertility
Projected fertility
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11Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Example Resource Consumption
Water Consumption Worldwide
Consumption is: High Getting higher Increasing faster
than population
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12Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Present Water Resources Are Limited8
Water availability: 33% is base flow
23% is accessible 10% is remote
67% is flood runoff We are near limits of
presently accessible resources
Need to use Water from more
remote areas Flood runoff resource Other sources, e.g.
ocean desalinization and local reclamation
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13Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
LA Aqueduct: 100 Year Anniversary
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14Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Present Land Resources Are Also Limited7
Land resources: Are insufficient at
present yields Sufficiency means:
More land under cultivation
At least double present yields
Land is acquired by deforestation and/or improved irrigation
Yields can be increased by biotechnology – but possibly at a cost
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15Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Energy Consumption in 20th Century9
Steeper increase last 50 years
Mostly from increased use of hydrocarbons
Influenced by: Development Climate Affluence
Primary resources mainly non-renewable
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16Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Predicted Energy Consumption
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17Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Varying Predictions of Oil Depletion
2000 2100
We are Here
2050
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18Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Predicted Oil Prices
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19Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Energy Technology Evolves10
Cars replaced horses as technology created new transportation needs
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20Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Horses to Cars Example
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21Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Energy Technology Evolves
Cars replaced horses as technology created new transportation needs
Energy forms have changed constantly to match society’s changing needs and the availability of natural resources
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22Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Potential for World Energy Evolution *
Source 1980 1990 2000
Petroleum 133 136 155
Natural Gas 54 75 91
Coal 73 92 91
Hydraulic 18 22 27
Nuclear 8 20 25
Alternative Electrical (Solar, wind, geothermal, wood, etc.
0.5 1.7 2.9
Alternative Non-Electrical (Ethanol, etc)
2.5 2.2 2.3
Total 289 351 396
*Quadrillion (1015) Btu, International Energy Annual, www.eia.doe.gov
62%85%
1.3%
6.3%6.8%
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23Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Emerging Alternative Technologies
Boeing Spectrolab Solar Concentrator Cellswww.defenseindustrydaily.com
Windmills Farm, Altamont Pass, Livermore, California © Dan Chusid 2009 Worldwide
It is difficult for alternative energy to make headway while oil and gas are still cheap, but forward thinking countries are starting to convert
It is difficult for alternative energy to make headway while oil and gas are still cheap, but forward thinking countries are starting to convert
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24Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Oil & Gas Prices Historically Oscillate…
Recent Peak
$100
$50
$01980 20001950
People Panic
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25Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
…but Gas Remains a Relative Bargain…
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 9 3 5 1 9 5 0 1 9 6 5 1 9 8 0 1 9 9 5
CA Minimum Wage ($)
Gas = $0.25/galMW = $0.75/hr
Gas = 20 min/gal
Gas = $1.70/galMW = $5.10/hr
Gas = 20 min/gal
2013
Gas = $3.60/galMW = $8.00/hr
Gas = 27 min/gal
8
7
2000
But x2-3 Mileage 1950 ~2-3 min/mile2013 <1 min/mile
Gas remains the low cost alternative despite increasing oil pricesGas remains the low cost alternative despite increasing oil prices
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26Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
…and Coal Remains a Prime Contender
Lots of Coal – But coal is heavy polluter Need better coal and alternative energy forms
l))
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27Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Resource Overview
Energy Consumption is increasing Conventional resources are decreasing
Water Overall use: 6x in 100 years (vs. 2x population growth) Agriculture: Uses 70% of total Human consumption: Inadequate drinking supplies
40% of world faces drinking water shortages 1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water 2.2 million die annually from contaminated water
Food Developing countries: 2100 to 2700 cal/day Industrial countries: 3000 to 3400 cal/day Capacity to produce is nearing limits
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28Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
% of global income84.7
1.4
Poorest 20%
Resource Impact is Disproportionate11
Impact = PAT Population Affluence Technology
United States 5% population 25% impact
New Players China India Japan South Korea Brazil Argentina Others
Richest 20%Poorest 20%
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29Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Energy Consumption is Disproportionate
Table from http://www.geographylwc.org.uk
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30Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Income Distribution is Skewed…
Table from B.D. Skinner, “The Gumption Memo”, www.gumption.org
~20% of the worldis “poor”
~20% of the worldis “poor”
~20% of the worldis “consumer class”
~20% of the worldis “consumer class”
~60% of the worldis “middle class”
~60% of the worldis “middle class”
$8K $50K$1K $75K
The stated goal of most economic programs is toward greater affluenceThe stated goal of most economic programs is toward greater affluence
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31Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
…but Income Distribution is Changing
Columbia University economist Xavier Sala-i-Martin reports that world and country incomes are rising and less people are living in poverty1.
Columbia University economist Xavier Sala-i-Martin reports that world and country incomes are rising and less people are living in poverty1.
1Xavier Sala-i-Martin, The World Distribution of Income, Columbia U. Paper, October 9, 2005
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32Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
The Cost of Affluence: Water Example
1 lb Grain 450
liters
6,200 liters
12,400 liters
1 Hamburger
1 Steak
For approximately the same caloric value!
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33Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Transport % of Energy World = 20% US = 30%-35%
Cars % of Transport USA = 90% Europe = 80% Japan = 60%
Total Number of Cars 2000 = ~450 Million 2030 = ~1000 Million
Developing world is the key area of concern For equal % of overall energy
2030 = 3x Efficiency (60 mpg) 2100 = 20x Efficiency (400 mpg)
Cars are Important Consumers of Resources
19301930 1950 2000 2030
900,000,000
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34Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Car Trends: Becoming more Rational?
GMC Yukon~ 6000 lb~ 15 mpg~ $45,000
Toyota Prius~ 2800 lb~ 55 mpg~ $21,000
Mercedes Smart Car
BMW Mini
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35Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
The Answer: High Technology?
General Motors Chevrolet Volt Plug-In. Electric vehicles may reduce local emissions, but overall resource saving depends on new energy sources
General Motors Chevrolet Volt Plug-In. Electric vehicles may reduce local emissions, but overall resource saving depends on new energy sources
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36Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
But We Sometimes Forget
Clean, Efficient Power
Generated by dirty plants, anddelivered by an inefficient grid
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37Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Odd Technology? An air-powered car? It may be available sooner than you think at a price tag that will hardly be a budget buster. The vehicle may not run like a speed racer on back road highways, but developer Zero Pollution Motors is betting consumers will be willing to fork over $20,000 for a vehicle that can motor around all day on nothing but air and a splash of salad oil, alcohol or possibly a pint of gasoline. The air car can tool along at a top speed of 35 mph for some 60 miles or so on a tank of compressed air, a sufficient distance for 80% of consumers to commute to work and back and complete daily chores. On highways, the CAV can cruise at interstate speeds for nearly 800 miles with a small motor that compresses outside air to keep the tank filled. The motor isn't finicky about fuel. It will burn gasoline or diesel as well as biodiesel, ethanol or vegetable oil. This car leaves the highest-mpg vehicles you can buy right now in the dust. Even if it used only regular gasoline, the air car would average 106 mpg, more than double today's fuel sipping champ, the Toyota Prius.
Jim Ostroff, Thursday, October 30, 2008 provided by Kiplinger
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38Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Citroen 2CV; 60+ mpg, 1948 - 1988
Vespa Motor Scooter, 75+ mpg, 1946 - ?
Back to the Future?
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39Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Even Further Back?
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40Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
More Futuristic?
Electrobike Pi, 20 mph, ~30 miles/charge, ~ $8,000
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41Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Resource Impact is Earthwide
Ecological Footprints USA = 12.4 acres/person 3rd World = 1.2 acres/person
To extend today’s USA footprint to everyone would require 3 to 4 planet Earths
But Earth’s essential ecology is under siege Increasing population Increasing affluence Increasing needs and wants
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42Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Lessons of the Tragedy of the Commons*
A ‘commons” is a resource not individually owned, but one that is available for use by all
Adam Smith’s theory that a free market yields optimizing behavior requires strong prior agreement on ethical behavior for the common good – by Adam Smith’s own account
In the absence of such agreement, Governments, organizations and people seemingly act in ways that endanger or destroy the commons – unless they are otherwise motivated or regulated
The Gulf of Mexico is an example: Companies exploit oil resources without regard for the ultimate effect on other common resources -- until almost inevitable disaster forces reconsideration of strategies
*Garrett Hardin, “The Tragedy of the Commons,” Science, 162(3859), Dec. 13, 1968
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43Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Our Commons Today
Image courtesy Malin Space Science Systems, 2004
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44Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Commons Components in Danger
Non-renewable resources: Fossil fuels
Mineral ores
Topsoil
Water: Pollution including ground aquifers
Forests: Wood and oxygen production
Atmosphere: Pollution and climate change
Oceans and coral reefs: Food, sea-life & beauty
Wilderness: Refuges, wetlands & scenery
Species: Biodiversity and biological resources
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45Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
An Emerging Ecological Ethic
New System Concepts Ecosystem as a whole Finite limits on non-renewable resources Ecological stability is highly desirable Ecological sustainability is essential
New Views of Nature Holistic & interdependent vs. dualistic and mechanistic Influenced by science – Darwin, DNA, biology, etc. And by religion – Stewardship, the sacredness of nature
Biocentric Ethical Philosophy Rights and welfare of whole biotic community Long term duties to future generations
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46Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
The Uses of Technology
Understanding what is happening Sensors, data processing Computer models, simulations, prediction Communication, publication……….
Developing alternative technologies to mitigate and eliminate dangers Energy Water Food Transportation Health Care Etc.
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47Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
The Roles (and Duties) of Engineers
Analysis Measuring and analyzing current situation Predicting future conditions Establishing technical requirements Creating new strategies for a sustainable environment
Innovation and Development Improving current technologies Developing totally new paradigms
Communication To policy makers To the non-technical public
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48Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”
Yogi BerraNew York Yankees
Baseball Legend
But Remember…
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49Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Some Previous Misguided Predictions
Heavier than air flying machines are impossible - Lord Kelvin, President, Royal Society, 1895
Everything that can be invented has been invented – Charles Duell, US Patent Office, 1899
Sensible and res-ponsible women do not want to vote - Grover Cleveland, 1905
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50Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Some Previous Misguided Predictions
Who the hell wants to hear actors talk? Harry Warner, 1927
There is no likeli-hood man can ever tap the power of the atom - Robert Millikan, 1923
Ruth made a big mistake when he gave up pitching - Tris Speaker, 1921
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51Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
Summary
Major increases are occurring in the world’s population and in people’s economic aspirations
As a result, there are significant stresses on our common resources, environment and ecology
Technology and engineering are central -- both to creating these problems and to solving them
The next 20 to 50 years will be critical Predicting future outcomes is very difficult
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52Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
References
1. Cohen, Joel, How Many People Can The Earth Support?, W. W. Norton & Co., New York, 1995, p79-82.2. Kates, Robert, Population, technology, and the human environment: A thread through time, Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, J Ausubel and H.D.Langford, Eds., National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, page 38 (concept credited to Deevey, E., The human population, Scientific American, 203, no.9 (September) 1960, pages 194-204.)3. Cohen, op. cit., p139.4. Kates, op cit., p50-51.5. Meadows, Donella H.. et al, Beyond the Limits, Chelsea Green Publishing Co., White River Junction, Vermont, 1992, p128-140.6. Meadows, op. cit., p7.
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53Copyright Gershon Weltman, 2013
References (Continued)
7. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p51.8. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p55.9. Meadows, op cit., Chapter 3, The Limits: Sources and Sinks, p67-8.10. Ausubel, J, and H.D.Langford, Eds., Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1997, p21 and 8611. Cohen, op. cit., p52.12. Wilson, Edward O., Foreword to 1999 edition, The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 1992. 13. Wilson, E.O.,The Diversity of Life, W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 1992.14..Meadows, op. cit, p92-96.15. National Research Council, Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change, National Academy Press, Washington D.C., 200016. Dunn, Seth, Decarbonizing the energy economy in Brown, Lester et al, State of the World,W.W.Norton & Co., New York, 2001, page 851e Energy-Environment Nexus, The Bridge, NAE, Vol. 32, No.218. Barbour, Ian, Ethics in an Age of Technology, Harper Collins, 1993 p57-89, 179- 8919. Cerf, Christopher, and Victor Navansky, The Experts Speak, Pantheon Books, New York, 1984, revised 2000