09 OM- Project Management
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Transcript of 09 OM- Project Management
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Two Biggest Projects of Humankind
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1.1. Grand Unified TheoryGrand Unified Theory
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2.2. Human Genome ProjectHuman Genome Project
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Goal is to insurethat objectives are achieved
on TIME
on BUDGET
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Project Management
Complex and numerous activities
Unique - a one time set of events
Finite - a begin and end date Limited resources and budget
Many people involved
Sequenced activities End product or service must result
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A Sample Project Organization
Sales
President
FinanceHuman
ResourcesEngineering
QualityControl
Production
TechnicianTest
EngineerPropulsionEngineer
Physiologist
ProjectManager
PsychologistStructuralEngineer
InspectionTechnician
Technician
Project 1
Project 2
ProjectManager
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Project Management Activities
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Planning
q Objectives
q Resources
q Workbreak-downschedule
q Organization
Scheduling
q Projectactivities
q Start &end times
q Network
Controlling
q Monitor,compare, revise,
action
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Project Planning, Scheduling, andProject Planning, Scheduling, andControllingControlling
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Define S.M.A.R.T. Project
ObjectivesSpecific
Measurable
Achievable
Realistic
Time Bounded
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Project Life CycleProject Life Cycle
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Project Life CycleProject Life Cycle
Concept
FeasibilityFeasibility
PlanningPlanning
ExecutionExecution
TerminationTermination
M
ana
ge
me
nt
Time, Operational, Financial, Technological
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The Four CornerstonesThe Four Cornerstones
of Project Managementof Project Management
Cost
Scope
Schedule
Quality
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Project Management ToolsProject Management Tools
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WBSWBS
Gantt ChartGantt Chart
CPMCPMPERTPERT
CrashingCrashing
Earned value MeasurementsEarned value Measurements
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A Gantt ChartA Gantt Chart
Popular tool for project schedulingPopular tool for project scheduling
Graph with bar for representing theGraph with bar for representing the
time for each tasktime for each taskProvides visual display of projectProvides visual display of project
scheduleschedule
Also shows slack for activitiesAlso shows slack for activitiesAmount of time activity can beAmount of time activity can bedelayed without delaying projectdelayed without delaying project
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A Gantt ChartA Gantt Chart| | | | |
Activity
Design houseand obtainfinancing
Lay foundation
Order andreceivematerials
Build house
Select paint
Select carpet
Finish work
00 22 44 66 88 1010
MonthMonth
MonthMonth
11 33 55 77 99
Figure 6.2Figure 6.2
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CPM/PERTCPM/PERT Critical Path Method (CPM)Critical Path Method (CPM)
DuPont & Remington-Rand (1956)DuPont & Remington-Rand (1956)
Deterministic task timesDeterministic task times
Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)Program Evaluation & Review Technique (PERT)
US Navy, Booz, Allen & HamiltonUS Navy, Booz, Allen & Hamilton
Developed to manage the Polaris missileDeveloped to manage the Polaris missile
projectprojectMultiple task time estimatesMultiple task time estimates
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CPMCPM
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1 32
ActivityActivity
EventEvent
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Project Network for a HouseProject Network for a House
33
22 00
11
33
11 11
111 2 4 6 7
3
5
LayLay
foundationfoundation
Design houseDesign house
and obtainand obtain
financingfinancing
Order andOrder and
receivereceive
materialsmaterials
DummyDummy
FinishFinish
workwork
SelectSelect
carpetcarpetSelectSelect
paintpaint
BuildBuild
househouse
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Project Network for a HouseProject Network for a House
33
22 00
11
33
11 11
111 2 4 6 7
3
5
LayLay
foundationfoundation
Design houseDesign house
and obtainand obtain
financingfinancing
Order andOrder and
receivereceive
materialsmaterials
DummyDummy
FinishFinish
workwork
SelectSelect
carpetcarpetSelectSelect
paintpaint
BuildBuild
househouse
E=0 E=3
E=5
E=5
E=6
E=8 E=9
L=9L=8
L=7
L=5
L=5
L=3L=0
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Critical PathCritical PathA path is a sequence of connectedA path is a sequence of connected
activities running from start to endactivities running from start to end
node in networknode in network
The critical path is theThe critical path is thepath with the longestpath with the longest
duration in the networkduration in the network
Project cannot beProject cannot be
completed in less thancompleted in less than
the time of the criticalthe time of the critical
pathpath
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Project Network for a HouseProject Network for a House
33
22 00
11
33
11 11
111 2 4 6 7
3
5
LayLay
foundationfoundation
Design houseDesign house
and obtainand obtain
financingfinancing
Order andOrder and
receivereceive
materialsmaterials
DummyDummy
FinishFinish
workwork
SelectSelect
carpetcarpetSelectSelect
paintpaint
BuildBuild
househouse
E=0 E=3
E=5
E=5
E=6
E=8 E=9
L=9L=8
L=7
L=5
L=5
L=3L=0
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The CriticalThe Critical
PathPath A:A: 1-2-3-4-6-71-2-3-4-6-7
3 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 93 + 2 + 0 + 3 + 1 = 9 monthsmonths B:B: 1-2-3-4-5-6-71-2-3-4-5-6-7
3 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 83 + 2 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 8 monthsmonths C:C: 1-2-4-6-71-2-4-6-7
3 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 83 + 1 + 3 + 1 = 8 monthsmonths D:D: 1-2-4-5-6-71-2-4-5-6-7
3 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 73 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 7 monthsmonths
33
22 00
11
33
11 11
111 2 4 6 7
3
5
LayLay
foundationfoundation
Design houseDesign house
and obtainand obtain
financingfinancing
Order andOrder and
receivereceive
materialsmaterials
DummyDummy
FinishFinish
workwork
SelectSelect
carpetcarpetSelectSelect
paintpaint
BuildBuild
househouse
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ComputingComputing
Late TimesLate TimesLFLF6767 = 9 months= 9 months
LSLS6767 = LF= LF6767 -- tt6767 = 9 - 1 = 8 months= 9 - 1 = 8 months
LFLF5656 = minimum (LS= minimum (LS66) = 8 months) = 8 months
LSLS5656 = LF= LF5656 -- tt5656 = 8 - 1 = 7 months= 8 - 1 = 7 months
LFLF2424 = minimum (LS= minimum (LS44) = min(5, 6)) = min(5, 6)
= 5 months= 5 months
LSLS2424 = LF= LF2424 -- tt2424 = 5 - 1 = 4 months= 5 - 1 = 4 months
33
22 00
11
33
11 11
111 2 4 6 7
3
5
LayLay
foundationfoundation
Design houseDesign house
and obtainand obtain
financingfinancing
Order andOrder and
receivereceive
materialsmaterials
DummyDummy
FinishFinish
workwork
SelectSelect
carpetcarpetSelectSelect
paintpaint
BuildBuild
househouse
1 2 4 6 7
3
5
3
2 0
1
3
1 1
1
ES = 3, EF = 5LS = 3, LF = 5( )
ES = 5, EF = 8
LS = 5, LF = 8( )
ES = 3, EF = 4
LS = 4, LF = 5( )ES = 0, EF = 3
LS = 0, LF = 3( )
ES = 5, EF = 5LS = 5, LF = 5( )
ES = 5, EF = 6
LS = 6, LF = 7( )
ES = 8, EF = 9
LS = 8, LF = 9( )ES = 6, EF = 7
LS =7, LF = 8( )
Early and Late Start and Finish Times
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Activity SlackActivity Slack
DataData33
22 00
11
33
11 11
11
1 2 4 6 7
3
5
LayLay
foundationfoundation
Design houseDesign house
and obtainand obtain
financingfinancing
Order andOrder and
receivereceive
materialsmaterials
DummyDummy
FinishFinish
workwork
SelectSelect
carpetcarpetSelectSelect
paintpaint
BuildBuild
househouse
ActivityActivity LSLS ESES LFLF EFEF SlacksSlacks
*1-2*1-2 00 00 33 33 00
*2-3*2-3 33 33 55 55 00
2-42-4 44 33 55 44 11
*3-4*3-4 55 55 55 55 00
4-54-5 66 55 77 66 11
*4-6*4-6 55 55 88 88 00
5-65-6 77 66 88 77 11
*6-7*6-7 88 88 99 99 00
* Critical path* Critical path
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PERTPERT
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Probabilistic TimeProbabilistic Time
EstimatesEstimatesReflect uncertainty of activity timesReflect uncertainty of activity times
Beta distribution is used in PERTBeta distribution is used in PERT
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Probabilistic TimeProbabilistic Time
EstimatesEstimatesReflect uncertainty of activity timesReflect uncertainty of activity times
Beta distribution is used in PERTBeta distribution is used in PERT
aa = optimistic estimate= optimistic estimate
mm = most likely time estimate= most likely time estimate
bb= pessimistic time estimate= pessimistic time estimate
wherewhere
Mean (expected time):Mean (expected time): tt==aa + 4+ 4mm ++ bb
66
Variance:Variance: 22 == bb -- aa66
22
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Activity EstimatesActivity Estimates
1 - 21 - 2 66 88 1010 88 0.440.44
1 - 31 - 3 33 66 99 66 1.001.00
1 - 41 - 4 11 33 55 33 0.440.44
2 - 52 - 5 00 00 00 00 0.000.002 - 62 - 6 22 44 1212 55 2.782.78
3 - 53 - 5 22 33 44 33 0.110.11
4 - 54 - 5 33 44 55 44 0.110.11
4 - 84 - 8 22 22 22 22 0.000.00
5 - 75 - 7 33 77 1111 77 1.781.78
5 - 85 - 8 22 44 66 44 0.440.44
8 - 78 - 7 00 00 00 00 0.000.00
6 - 96 - 9 11 44 77 44 1.001.00
7 - 97 - 9 11 1010 1313 99 4.004.00
TIME ESTIMATES (WKS)TIME ESTIMATES (WKS) MEAN TIMEMEAN TIME VARIANCEVARIANCE
ACTIVITYACTIVITY aa mm bb tt 22
2
4
6
1 73 5 9
8
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Southern Textile CompanySouthern Textile Company
SystemSystem
changeoverchangeover
2
4
6
1 73 5 9
8
ManualManual
TestingTesting
DummyDummy
SystemSystem
TrainingTraining
DummyDummySystemSystemTestingTesting
OrientationOrientation
PositionPositionrecruitingrecruiting
SystemSystem
developmentdevelopment
EquipmentEquipment
installationinstallation
Equipment testingEquipment testing
and modificationand modification
FinalFinal
debuggingdebugging
JobJobtrainingtraining
aa
bb
cc
dd
ee
ff
gg
hh
ii
jj kk
ll
mm
Example 6.1Example 6.1
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2
4
6
1 73 5 9
8
Early and Late TimesEarly and Late Times
For Activity 1-2For Activity 1-2
aa= 6,= 6, mm = 8,= 8, bb = 10= 10tt= = = 8 weeks= = = 8 weeks
aa + 4+ 4mm ++ bb
66
6 + 4(8) + 106 + 4(8) + 10
66
22 = = = week= = = weekbb -- aa66
2210 - 610 - 6
66
22 44
99
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2
4
6
1 73 5 9
8
Early and Late TimesEarly and Late Times
ACTIVITYACTIVITY tt 2 ESES EFEF LSLS LFLF SS1 - 21 - 2 88 0.440.44 00 88 11 99 11
1 - 31 - 3 66 1.001.00 00 66 00 66 00
1 - 41 - 4 33 0.440.44 00 33 22 55 22
2 - 52 - 5 00 0.000.00 88 88 99 99 112 - 62 - 6 55 2.782.78 88 1313 1616 2121 88
3 - 53 - 5 33 0.110.11 66 99 66 99 00
4 - 54 - 5 44 0.110.11 33 77 55 99 22
4 - 84 - 8 22 0.000.00 33 55 1414 1616 1111
5 - 75 - 7 77 1.781.78 99 1616 99 1616 005 - 85 - 8 44 0.440.44 99 1313 1212 1616 33
7 - 87 - 8 00 0.000.00 1313 1313 1616 1616 33
6 - 96 - 9 44 1.001.00 1313 1717 2121 2525 88
7 - 97 - 9 99 4.004.00 1616 2525 1616 2525 00
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Southern Textile CompanySouthern Textile Company
Example 6.1Example 6.1
2
4
6
1 73 5 9
8
ES = 9, EF = 16ES = 9, EF = 16
LS = 9, LF = 16LS = 9, LF = 16
ES = 0, EF = 8ES = 0, EF = 8
LS = 1, LF = 9LS = 1, LF = 9
ES = 0, EF = 6ES = 0, EF = 6
LS = 0, LF = 6LS = 0, LF = 6ES = 6, EF = 9ES = 6, EF = 9
LS = 6, LF = 9LS = 6, LF = 9
ES = 0, EF = 3ES = 0, EF = 3
LS = 2, LF = 5LS = 2, LF = 5
ES = 3, EF = 7ES = 3, EF = 7
LS = 5, LF = 9LS = 5, LF = 9
ES = 9, EF = 13ES = 9, EF = 13
LS = 12, LF = 16LS = 12, LF = 16
ES = 8, EF = 8ES = 8, EF = 8
LS = 9, LF = 9LS = 9, LF = 9
ES = 13, EF = 13ES = 13, EF = 13
LS = 16, LF = 16LS = 16, LF = 16
ES = 3, EF = 5ES = 3, EF = 5
LS = 14, LF = 16LS = 14, LF = 16
ES = 16, EF = 25ES = 16, EF = 25
LS = 21, LF = 25LS = 21, LF = 25
ES = 13, EF = 17ES = 13, EF = 17
LS = 21, LF = 25LS = 21, LF = 25
ES = 8, EF = 13ES = 8, EF = 13LS = 16, LF = 21LS = 16, LF = 21
88
55
44
66 33 77
99
33
22
44 00
00
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Southern Textile CompanySouthern Textile Company
Example 6.1Example 6.1
2
4
6
1 73 5 9
8
ES = 9, EF = 16ES = 9, EF = 16
LS = 9, LF = 16LS = 9, LF = 16
ES = 0, EF = 8ES = 0, EF = 8
LS = 1, LF = 9LS = 1, LF = 9
ES = 0, EF = 6ES = 0, EF = 6
LS = 0, LF = 6LS = 0, LF = 6ES = 6, EF = 9ES = 6, EF = 9
LS = 6, LF = 9LS = 6, LF = 9
ES = 0, EF = 3ES = 0, EF = 3
LS = 2, LF = 5LS = 2, LF = 5
ES = 3, EF = 7ES = 3, EF = 7
LS = 5, LF = 9LS = 5, LF = 9
ES = 9, EF = 13ES = 9, EF = 13
LS = 12, LF = 16LS = 12, LF = 16
ES = 8, EF = 8ES = 8, EF = 8
LS = 9, LF = 9LS = 9, LF = 9
ES = 13, EF = 13ES = 13, EF = 13
LS = 16, LF = 16LS = 16, LF = 16
ES = 3, EF = 5ES = 3, EF = 5
LS = 14, LF = 16LS = 14, LF = 16
ES = 16, EF = 25ES = 16, EF = 25
LS = 21, LF = 25LS = 21, LF = 25
ES = 13, EF = 17ES = 13, EF = 17
LS = 21, LF = 25LS = 21, LF = 25
ES = 8, EF = 13ES = 8, EF = 13LS = 16, LF = 21LS = 16, LF = 21
88
55
44
66 33 77
99
33
22
44 00
00
2 = 2 + 2 + 2 + 2
= 1.00 + 0.11 + 1.78 + 4.00= 6.89 weeks
13 35 57 79
Total project variance
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Probabilistic NetworkProbabilistic Network
AnalysisAnalysisDetermine probability that project isDetermine probability that project is
completed within specified timecompleted within specified time
wherewhere
== ttpp = project mean time= project mean time ==project standard deviationproject standard deviation
xx== proposed project timeproposed project time
ZZ== number of standard deviationsnumber of standard deviationsxx
is from meanis from mean
ZZ==xx--
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Normal Distribution OfNormal Distribution Of
Project TimeProject Time
== ttpp TimeTimexx
Z
ProbabilityProbability
Figure 6.12Figure 6.12
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Southern Textile ExampleSouthern Textile Example
What is the probability that the projectWhat is the probability that the project
is completed within 30 weeks?is completed within 30 weeks?
Example 6.2Example 6.2
= 25= 25 Time (weeks)Time (weeks)xx= 30= 30
PP((xx 30 weeks)30 weeks)
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Southern Textile ExampleSouthern Textile Example
What is the probability that the projectWhat is the probability that the project
is completed within 30 weeks?is completed within 30 weeks?
Example 6.2Example 6.2
= 25= 25 Time (weeks)Time (weeks)xx= 30= 30
PP((xx 30 weeks)30 weeks) 22 = 6.89 weeks= 6.89 weeks = 6.89= 6.89 = 2.62 weeks= 2.62 weeks
ZZ==
==
= 1.91= 1.91
xx-- 30 - 2530 - 25
2.622.62
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Southern Textile ExampleSouthern Textile Example
What is the probability that the projectWhat is the probability that the project
is completed within 30 weeks?is completed within 30 weeks?
Example 6.2Example 6.2
= 25= 25 Time (weeks)Time (weeks)xx= 30= 30
PP((xx 30 weeks)30 weeks) 22 = 6.89 weeks= 6.89 weeks = 6.89= 6.89 = 2.62 weeks= 2.62 weeks
ZZ==
==
= 1.91= 1.91
xx-- 30 - 2530 - 25
2.622.62
From Table, aFrom Table, aZZscore of 1.91score of 1.91
corresponds to a probability of 0.4719.corresponds to a probability of 0.4719.
ThusThus PP(30) = 0.4719 + 0.5000 = 0.9719(30) = 0.4719 + 0.5000 = 0.9719
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Southern Textile ExampleSouthern Textile Example
What is the probability that the projectWhat is the probability that the project
is completed within 22 weeks?is completed within 22 weeks?
Example 6.3Example 6.3
= 25= 25 Time (weeks)Time (weeks)xx= 22= 22
PP((xx 22 weeks)22 weeks)
0.3729
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Southern Textile ExampleSouthern Textile Example
What is the probability that the projectWhat is the probability that the project
is completed within 22 weeks?is completed within 22 weeks?
Example 6.3Example 6.3
22 = 6.89 weeks= 6.89 weeks = 6.89= 6.89 = 2.62 weeks= 2.62 weeks
ZZ==
==
= -1.14= -1.14
xx-- 22 - 2522 - 25
2.622.62
= 25= 25 Time (weeks)Time (weeks)xx= 22= 22
PP((xx 22 weeks)22 weeks)
0.3729
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Southern Textile ExampleSouthern Textile Example
What is the probability that the projectWhat is the probability that the project
is completed within 22 weeks?is completed within 22 weeks?
22 = 6.89 weeks= 6.89 weeks = 6.89= 6.89 = 2.62 weeks= 2.62 weeks
ZZ==
==
= -1.14= -1.14
xx-- 22 - 2522 - 25
2.622.62
From Table A.1, aFrom Table A.1, a ZZscore of -1.14score of -1.14
corresponds to a probability of 0.3729.corresponds to a probability of 0.3729.
ThusThus PP(22) = 0.5000 - 0.3729 = 0.1271(22) = 0.5000 - 0.3729 = 0.1271
= 25= 25 Time (weeks)Time (weeks)xx= 22= 22
PP((xx 22 weeks)22 weeks)
0.3729