09 2nd Quarter Office Review

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2nd Quarter - Office Market Report

Transcript of 09 2nd Quarter Office Review

Page 1: 09 2nd Quarter Office Review
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CommerCe CrG | SeCoND Quarter - 20 09 | off ice market review

COMMERCE CRG is a regional real estate firm dedicated firstand foremost to our clients. With the industry’s premier

professionals, and industry leading technology, our mission is toexceed our clients’ expectations through service excellence.

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OFFICE MARKET INDICATORS

Change Since

Current 2Q09 2Q08

Vacancy 20.11%

Lease Rates $2.12

Net Absorption * (236,335)

Construction 1.4 M

*The arrows are trend indicators over the specified time period, and do not represent a positive or negative value. (e.g., absorption could be negative but still represent a positive trend over a specified period.)

LAS VEGASMARKET OVERVIEW

AT A GLANCE

Overall vacancy rates showed an increase from 19.83% in 1st quarter 2009 to the current rate of 20.11% at the end of 2nd quarter 2009. This rate is escalating from a year ago when rates were around 16.7%.

Construction activity slowed with 1.46 million square feet (msf) of office space currently under construction. Major projects moving forward include: Centennial Hills Center, in the Northwest submarket with approximately 283,700 square feet (sf) of office space. Another major project that just finished construction was the Rainbow Sunset Pavilion in the southwest area with 226,140 sf of office space.

Average rental rates are at lower levels than we witnessed a year ago at a current rate of $2.12 per square foot per month Full Service Gross (psf/mo/FSG). This is a also a drop from last quarter rates of $2.23 psf/mo/FSG

Economic outlook is still going to be a growing concern for both landlords and tenants as tighter credit terms, rising inflation and a weak job market continue to affect the Las Vegas area.

LAS VEGAS MARKET OVERVIEW

The Las Vegas economy continues to be impacted by downturns in all major sectors, including gaming, construction, financial and real estate, however we may be starting to show a sign towards more positive numbers. The latest tourism figures ( June 2009) suggest visitor volumes are still down by 2.89 percent from the same period of the prior year, however are up from the 9.8 percent change at the beginning of the year. The amount of discretionary spending by tourists also appears to be moving to more positive signs as the average gaming revenues on the Las Vegas Strip were down 13.56 percent, but again up from the 14.8 percent at the beginning of the year. All of these factors point toward a cautionary, but also ready to start spending, stage in consumer demand and market recovery.

From a commercial perspective, the supply-demand imbalance of office product, which started in 2008, has produced substantial levels of new product that entered the market despite elevated vacancies. Half way through 2009, developers have now reduced the number of new office buildings under development based on the current fundamentals of limited to / no financing, high vacancy and greatly reduced tenant demand. The new issue is

consumer demand to keep businesses running and staying in business. A similar situation has prevailed in the commercial retail sector. That said, a number of retail closures resulted in higher-than-average vacancies while consumers are feeling the pinch associated with price declines in their homes. The industrial sector has performed similarly, yet remains more stable than the office and retail sectors. Limited development in the industrial sector has kept vacancy rates in line with historical averages.

While fundamentals in the market remain challenged, market dynamics in the global financial system create an added level of uncertainty and unpredictability. From a global perspective, the latest crisis in the financial markets has impacted liquidity and heightened concerns about accessibility to capital going forward. While government intervention has occurred, the full effect of these assistance programs remains somewhat uncertain. The financial crisis has impacted the viability of major projects and has banks struggling with liquidity issues. The positive impacts associated with major resort openings in late 2008 and well into 2009 are difficult to quantify. Major gaming operators are likely to increase efficiencies to meet the requirements of reduced demand. Employment growth is critical to future economic growth and the return to a healthy commercial market; which may take several years to accomplish. It is important to note that Las Vegas has weathered a number of economic downturns and has responded with great enthusiasm. This down cycle will likely respond similarly; only time will tell!

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LAS VEGASMARKET OVERVIEW

OFFICE MARKET | OVERVIEW

By the beginning of 2009, the Las Vegas commercial office market continued to report upward movement in vacancies, while overall demand slowed. The latest market performance was impacted by several factors, including economic weakness locally and nationally, as well as volatility in the global financial markets. Professional office tenants have been impacted by a contracting economy, continued declines in housing values, raising unemployment and ultimately impacting consumer spending and pullback within the tourism industry.

OFFICE MARKET | VACANCIES

Valley-wide average vacancies continued to escalate as the supply-side of the equation, combined with declining demand and contraction in real estate related industries, continues to impact the competitive landscape. The office market vacancies reached 20.11 percent at the end of the 2nd quarter, which was higher than the 19.83 percent reported one quarter ago (Q1 2009) and 3.4 points higher than the 16.7 percent reported one year ago (Q2 2008). Sublease space also continues to be on the rise with currently 896,110 sf (2% of the total market) of available sublease space. Office submarkets reporting the highest level of availability included emerging submarkets with the newest supply of buildings such as the Airport (24.2 percent), Southeast (23.6 percent), and Southwest (27.58 percent) submarkets. The high vacancy rates in these submarkets are a result of new buildings coming on line with little or no pre-leasing activity, combined with lease concessions, defaults and downsizing which is causing vacancy to rise. Below-market-average vacancies were noted in the Downtown (12.07 percent), West (17.57 percent), Central West (14.91 percent).

OFFICE MARKET | PRICING (Average Asking Rents)

The latest performance contributed to price erosion as landlords and building owners compete for a limited number of office tenants. By 2nd quarter, the market reported average asking rents of $2.12 sf/FSG, a drop from the $2.23 sf/FSG from the previous quarter. Elevated tenant improvement allowances and free rent concessions are impacting returns for landlords, investors and ultimately lenders. We expect this trend to continue throughout the majority of 2009 as inventory levels remain elevated.

Average rents in the Class A segment reached $3.02 sf/FSG with newer, high-end buildings targeting a price point well above the average. Mid-range product (Class B) reported average asking rents of $1.80 sf/FSG, which was below the valley-wide average. Pricing for Class C properties decreased again this quarter to $1.54 sf/FSG. Downtown ($2.42 sf/FSG), Central East ($2.15 sf/FSG) and Airport ($2.00 sf/FSG) submarkets show the highest lease rates, while Central West ($1.88 sf/FSG), Northwest ($1.94 sf/FSG) and North ($1.56 sf/FSG) submarkets show the lowest average lease rates. Please Note: the average asking rates do not take inconsideration free rent & rental concession.

* Full Service Gross (FSG): A lease requiring the owner to pay all operating expenses, such as cleaning, maintenance and repairs, utilities, insurance and ad valorem taxes.

OFFICE MARKET | NEW SUPPLY (Completions) AND MARKET DEMAND

Construction activity slowed with 1.46 million square feet of office space currently under construction. Major projects moving forward include: Centennial Hills Center, in the Northwest submarket with approximately 283,700 square feet (sf ) of office space.

At the end of 2nd quarter, net absorption ended with a negative 236,335 sf. This is due to the continued decline in market demand combined with new buildings added to the inventory during the quarter. The hardest hit areas showing negative absorption was in the West, Central East and Airport submarkets.

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LAS VEGASMARKET OVERVIEW

OFFICE MARKET | OUTLOOK

The market will continue to be impacted by cautious consumer/companies activity, causing vacancies to remain elevated and most likely continue to increase. Near-term contraction within the employment market will also have an impact on office market demand. The effect of extended lease up periods and softening economic conditions will contribute to increased repossession activity by lenders that will result in further price adjustments. “About $2.2 trillion of U.S. commercial properties bought or refinanced since early 2004 have fallen below the price at which they changed hands,” according to a report by Real Capital Analytics, a research firm based in New York. Due to lack of financing, owners are going to have to rely on cash deals, which in turn push down sale prices in order for buildings to be sellable Real Capital Analytics also reported that “April saw the largest rise yet for properties that are reported to be in default, foreclosure or involved in bankruptcy.” The Las Vegas area currently has $9.7 billion worth of properties in distress, with office buildings showing $177 million worth, roughly 678,377 square feet of distressed space. Tight credit, falling property values and lenders unwilling to refinance projects are causing landlords to fear that they will no longer be able to hang on to their properties. We expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable future as we work our way thru this deleverage cycle. On a brighter side, Real Capital Analytics also points out in their report, that the office sector has fewer distressed properties than other properties types and that Medical office buildings has see little trouble in the foreclosure process and seems to be the golden child of office building properties types.

OFFICE MARKET | PERFORMANCE BY PRODUCT TYPE & CLASSIFICATION

While broader market trends are clear, by providing basic break out of the office product types, it is also important to understand the performance of detailed key sectors within the commercial office market. At Commerce CRG, we know the importance of updating the classification of buildings as the market grows older. We have taken the steps this quarter to start with a new classification process. As a team, we have separated and reclassified all office buildings in a “Tier” format. The Tier format will separate out classes in a Top Tier Class and Lower Tier Class. This will help our clients to better understand, for example, the number of “real” Class A buildings that the Las Vegas area has that would qualify as Class A in other markets such as Los Angeles and New York. While also taking a look at lower tier Class A buildings, buildings that is what the Las Vegas market considers Class A, but would not qualify as Class A in Los Angeles or New York.

The following is the Commerce CRG 2nd Quarter Market report which highlights market conditions by building type and classification.

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Las Vegas, Nevada | Commerce CRG Second Quarter 2009

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LAS VEGASMARKET OVERVIEW

OFFICE MARKET | MEDICAL OFFICE MARKET

The medical sector of the office market continues to perform slightly better than the balance of the market in 2009. Vacancies within the segment dropped again this quarter from 14.9 percent first quarter 2009 to 14.1 percent second quarter 2009.

Las Vegas, Nevada | Commerce CRG Second Quarter 2009

Medical Office Market

The medical sector of the office market continues to perform slightly better than the balance of the market in 2009. Vacancies within the segment dropped again this quarter from 14.9 percent first quarter 2009 to 14.1 percent second quarter 2009.

Professional Office: Quarterly Vacancy

9.03%

8.18%

8.49%

8.69% 9.5

7% 10.32

%10.

89% 12.13%

12.45% 13.

18% 13.66% 14

.80% 16

.80%

16.98% 17

.30% 19.

83% 20.11

%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Q2 05

Q3 05

Q4 05

Q1 06

Q2 06

Q3 06

Q4 06

Q1 07

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q4 07

Q1 08

Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209

Las Vegas, Nevada | Commerce CRG Second Quarter 2009

Medical Office Market

The medical sector of the office market continues to perform slightly better than the balance of the market in 2009. Vacancies within the segment dropped again this quarter from 14.9 percent first quarter 2009 to 14.1 percent second quarter 2009.

Professional Office: Quarterly Vacancy

9.03%

8.18%

8.49%

8.69% 9.5

7% 10.32

%10.

89% 12.13%

12.45% 13.

18% 13.66% 14

.80% 16

.80%

16.98% 17

.30% 19.

83% 20.11

%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Q2 05

Q3 05

Q4 05

Q1 06

Q2 06

Q3 06

Q4 06

Q1 07

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q4 07

Q1 08

Q208 Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209

LAS VEGAS OFFICE SubMARKET GRAphS

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LAS VEGAS | OFFICE SUBMARKET GRAPHS

Las Vegas, Nevada | Commerce CRG Second Quarter 2009

Professional Office: Quarterly Absorption (SF)

(1,000,000)

(500,000)

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

Q2 05

Q3 05

Q4 05

Q1 06

Q2 06

Q3 06

Q4 06

Q1 07

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q4 07

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209

Professional Office: Inventory (SF) and Vacancy Rate (%)

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

Q2 05

Q3 05

Q4 05

Q1 06

Q2 06

Q3 06

Q4 06

Q1 07

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q4 07

Q1 08

Q2 08

Q308 Q408 Q109 Q209

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

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LAS VEGAS | OFFICE SUBMARKET GRAPHS

Las Vegas, Nevada | Commerce CRG Second Quarter 2009

Professional Office: Office Employment vs Vacancy Rate (%)

20.11%

8.47% 10.88%13.22%

17.30%

19.83%

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

350,000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Las Vegas Professional Office Market Overview 1998-2009 YTD

20.11%

14.62% 14.20%11.59%

15.77%13.61%

11.48%9.32%

15.28%17.30%

14.42% 14.72%

-

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

10,000,000

12,632,047 14,869,639 15,781,031 17,337,169 18,496,03820,020,89522,621,90621,752,13325,241,78630,199,55248,551,57345,446,760

$1.92 $1.94 $2.00 $1.94 $1.88 $1.87 $1.91 $2.03 $1.86 $1.91 $2.34 $2.12

$2.21 $2.19 $2.27 $2.26 $2.23 $2.16 $2.22 $2.36 $2.27 $2.29 $2.70 $2.42

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Base

Ave. Lease Rate Sub

Ave. Lease Rate DT

Squa

re F

eet

-3.00%

2.00%

7.00%

12.00%

17.00%

22.00%

Vaca

ncy

Built Net AbsorptionVacant Inventory Vacancy

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LAS VEGAS | OFFICE SUBMARKET GRAPHS

Las Vegas, Nevada | Commerce CRG Second Quarter 2009

Professional Office Submarket Demand and Supply

18.12% 14.91% 23.59%17.57%20.05% 21.28%27.58%12.07% 24.21%

-400,000

-300,000

-200,000

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

Northwest Downtown CentralEast

CentralWest

West Southwest Airport Southeast North

Net Absorption New Supply Vacacny %

Professional Office: Building Class

Existing SF3,522,667

Existing SF25,189,871

Existing SF18,052,053

Vacancy843,770

Vacancy4,786,862

Vacancy3,642,769

Sublease SF 346,785

Sublease SF 458,401

Sublease SF90,924

Class A

Class B

Class C

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GLOSSARy | MAjOR MARKET dEFInITIOnS

Top Tier Class A: Describes the highest quality office space locally available. The architecture of Class A office structures always prioritizes design and visual appeal over cost, and sometimes over practicality - a Class A building can be considered a monument and a testament to the success and power of its tenants. Class A: Generally 100,000 sq. ft. or larger (five or more floors), concrete and steel construction, built since 1980, business /support amenities, strong identifiable location/access. Most prestigious buildings competing for premier office users with above average rents for the area. Buildings have high quality standard finishes, state-of-the-art systems, exceptional accessibility and suggest a definitive market presence.

Lower Tier Class A: Investment – grade property, well located and offering high-quality space. Good design, above-average workmanship and materials. Well maintained and managed, exceptionally so if an older building. Quality tenants. Building(s) location considered premier with high market perception standards. Typically higher rent with excellent building finishes, multiple building amenities and high efficiencies. Class A will have 3 or more floors, concrete and steel construction.

Top Tier Class b: Building(s) location considered excellent with medium market perception standards. Renovated and in good locations. Typically lower rent than Class “A” with good building finishes, some building amenities and medium efficiencies. Built after 2000. Concrete and steel construction.

Lower Tier Class b: Buildings competing for a wide range of office users with average rents for the area. Building finishes are fair to good for the area and systems are adequate, but the buildings do not compete with class A at the same price. They are less appealing to tenants than Class A properties, and may be deficient in a number of respects including floor plans, condition and facilities. They lack prestige and must depend chiefly on a lower price to attract tenants and investors. Such buildings offer utilitarian space without special attractions and have ordinary design. Built before 2000. Wood frame and tilt wall construction.

Top Tier Class C: A classification used to describe buildings that generally qualify as no-frills, older buildings that offer basic space and command lower rents or sale prices compared to other buildings in the same market. Such buildings typically have below-average maintenance and management, and could have mixed or low tenant prestige, inferior elevators, and/or mechanical/electrical systems. These buildings lack prestige and must depend chiefly on a lower price to attract tenants and investors. 15 to 25 years old. Wood frame and tilt wall construction. Smaller buildings, Garden Style design.

Lower Tier Class C: Older, un-renovated and of any size in average to fair condition. Basic Space in a no-frills older building. Below –Average maintenance and management. Mixed or low tenant prestige. Inferior elevators and mechanical/ electrical systems. Class C Buildings are typically 15 to 25 years old but are maintaining steady occupancy.

Medical: A building is considered medical if greater than 55% of its rentable area is occupied by medical tenants.

Full Service Gross (FSG): A lease requiring the owner to pay all operating expenses, such as cleaning, maintenance and repairs, utilities, insurance and ad valorem taxes.

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LAS VEGAS | OFFICE SUBMARKET MAP

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COMMERCE CRG | FuLL SERVICE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SOLuTIOnSCommerce CRG has been among the top commercial real estate brokerage firms in the Intermountain West for 30 years. From our headquarters in Salt Lake City and offices in Provo/Orem, Park City, Clearfield and St. George, Utah and Las Vegas, Nevada we offer a full range of brokerage services, valuation and consulting, client representation and property/facility management. Our alliance with Cushman & Wakefield extends our reach worldwide.

CuShMAn & WAKEFIELd ALLIAnCEA number of Cushman & Wakefield offices, including Commerce CRG, are independently owned and connected with the company by way of an international alliance. Cushman & Wakefield concentrates on larger markets like Los Angeles and New York, and alliance members like Commerce CRG concentrate on developing secondary markets.

Together the geographic coverage is nearly universal. This enables Cushman & Wakefield to provide comprehensive services for clients with local requirements as well as for those with more expansive national or international portfolios. In either case, Cushman & Wakefield’s services are supported by the full integrated resources of the entire alliance.

Cushman & Wakefield is the world’s largest privately-held commercial real estate services firm. Founded in 1917, it has 230 offices in 58 countries and more than 15,000 employees. The firm represents a diverse customer base ranging from small businesses to Fortune 500 companies. It offers a complete range of services within four primary disciplines: Transaction Services, including tenant and landlord representation in office, industrial and retail real estate; Capital Markets, including property sales, investment management, valuation services, investment banking, debt and equity financing; Client Solutions, including integrated real estate strategies for large corporations and property owners, and Consulting Services, including business and real estate consulting. A recognized leader in global real estate research, the firm publishes a broad array of proprietary reports available on its online Knowledge Center at www.cushmanwakefield.com.

230 Offices in 58 Countries

C&W Owned Offices

C&W Alliance/Associate Offices

AS OF MARCH 2009

Australia Adelaide* Melbourne* Sydney

China BeijingChengduGuangzhou Hong KongShanghaiShenzhen

Fiji*India Bangalore ChennaiGurgaonHyderabadKolkataMumbai – CityMumbai – Suburbs New DelhiPune

IndonesiaJakarta

JapanTokyo

MalaysiaKuala Lumpur*

New ZealandAuckland* Wellington*

PakistanKarachi*

PhilippinesManila*

Singapore South KoreaBusanSeoul

TaiwanTaipei*

ThailandBangkok*

VietnamHanoiHo Chi Minh City

Alberta Calgary Edmonton*

British ColumbiaVancouver

NewfoundlandSt. John's*

Nova ScotiaHalifax*

OntarioLondonNewmarketOttawa Toronto CentralToronto EastToronto West

Quebec Montreal CentralMontreal Suburban

ManitobaWinnipeg*

New BrunswickFredericton*Moncton*Saint John*

IsraelTel Aviv*

LebanonBeirut*

Middle East/AfricaSouth AfricaCape Town*Durban* Johannesburg*Pretoria*

United Arab EmiratesDubai

ArgentinaBuenos Aires

Brazil ManausRio de JaneiroSão Paulo

ChileSantiago*

Colombia Bogota*

Latin America

AustriaVienna*

BelgiumBrussels

BulgariaPleven*Plovdiv*Sofia*

Channel IslandsJersey*

Czech RepublicPrague

DenmarkCopenhagen*

England BirminghamLondon-City London-West EndManchesterThames Valley

FranceLyonParis

GermanyBerlinDusseldorfFrankfurtHamburgMunich

GreeceAthens

HungaryBudapest

Ireland Cork* Dublin*

Italy Bologna Milan Rome

LuxembourgLuxembourg*

MacedoniaSkopje*

The NetherlandsAmsterdam

Northern IrelandBelfast*

NorwayDrammen*Oslo*Stavanger*

PolandWarsaw

PortugalLisbon

RomaniaBucharestTimisoara

Russia Moscow

Scotland Edinburgh Glasgow

Serbia Belgrade*

Slovakia Bratislava

Spain Barcelona Madrid

Sweden Stockholm

SwitzerlandBasel* Geneva* Zurich*

TurkeyIstanbul

Canada

United States

Australia/Asia Pacific

Europe

EcuadorQuito

Mexico Ciudad JuarezGuadalajara*Mexico CityMonterrey

Peru Lima

VenezuelaCaracas

AlabamaBirmingham*MobileArizonaPhoenixTempeTucson*

CaliforniaCarlsbadInland EmpireL.A. L.A. South BayL.A. WestMarin/Sonoma CtyOaklandOrange CountySacramento San Diego - DowntownSan Diego - EastgateSan FranciscoSan JoseWalnut Creek

ColoradoColorado Springs*Denver

ConnecticutHartfordStamford

DelawareWilmington

District of ColumbiaWashington, D.C.

Florida Ft. LauderdaleFt. Myers*JacksonvilleMiami OrlandoPalm Beach Gardens Tampa

GeorgiaAtlanta

Hawaii Honolulu

Illinois Chicago Chicago Suburban

IndianaIndianapolis*

KentuckyLouisville*

MainePortland

MarylandBaltimoreBethesda

MassachusettsBoston

MichiganDetroit*Grand Rapids*Grosse PointKalamazoo*Lansing*Muskegon*

MinnesotaMinneapolisMinneapolis Suburban

MissouriKansas City*St. Louis*

NevadaLas Vegas*Reno

New HampshireManchester

New JerseyEast RutherfordEdisonMorristown

New York Albany*Binghamton*Buffalo*Corning/Elmira*IslandiaIthaca*Kingston*Melville, LIN.Y. Downtown N.Y. MidtownRochester*SyracuseSyracuse*Utica*Watertown*Westchester County

North CarolinaCharlotte*Greensboro/Winston-Salem*Raleigh/CaryRaleigh/Durham*Tarboro*

OhioCincinnati*Cleveland*Columbus*Toledo*

OregonPortland

PennsylvaniaPhiladelphiaPhiladelphia SuburbanPittsburgh*

Puerto RicoSan Juan*

South Carolina Charleston* Greenville/Spartanburg*

Tennessee Memphis*Nashville*

Texas Austin*Dallas HoustonSan Antonio*

Utah Clearfield/Ogden* Park City*Provo/Orem*Salt Lake City*St. George*

VirginiaFredicksburg*McLeanNewport News*Norfolk/Virginia Beach*Richmond*Roanoke*

WashingtonBellevue Seattle

WisconsinMilwaukee*