I n f r a s t r u c t u r e V i s i o n 2 0 5 0 C h a l l e n g e : D r e a m P h a s e

Monorail2050:TransitOrientedDevelopment(TOD)TheHub-and-SpokeModelJeremyMartinezLosAngeles,CA

Infrastructure Vision 2050 Challenge “Dream” Phase

HeroX2016

08 Fall

ExecutiveSummary

Thisproposaladdressesthemetropolitanneedsforhousing,retail,publicspaces,andefficienttransportation.Themonorailisanefficienttransitsource,especiallyfor short distances in cities that are already heavily developed. Only a smallfootprint is required formonorail track stays. In this proposal,monorail trainsconnectmixed-use transithubshosting retail and residential realestate. Thesehubs,whichalsoincludeparks,museums,andartinstallations,areconnectedbythespokesofthemonorailtransitsystem.Inordertofundthislarge-scaleproject,retailandresidentialdeveloperswillsubsidizethecreationofthetransitsystemaspartofthecostofownershipofmixed-usetransithubs.Thisparadigmallowsfor cost-efficient and rapid development of the project, without needing toimposetaxesorextractotherpublicfunding.Thiscreatesawin-winsituationforthe developers and the public. In this way, the city gains access to a newtransportationsystemwithadditionalhousingandemployment,whiledecreasingvehicular traffic in the city. This proposal also makes suggestions forimplementation and explores possible metrics for determining the project’ssuccess. Both implementation and evaluation phases are designed to assurepoliticalandpublicsupportfortheproject.

BackgroundTheProblemandPastSolutionsInthepast,youngfamiliesoptedforthesuburbs,asanescapefromthegrindofcitylife.Thecurrent generation of young Americans has begun a movement back into cities, with apreference formixed-usedevelopments that afford lifenecessities inwalkable range. Whilethisabilitytowalktotheneareststoreisatremendousbenefit,manycontinuetodrivetoworkandusetheircarstovisitotherpartsofthecity.Mixed-usehousinghasledtoincreasedtrafficandparkingproblemsinmanycases.Automobiletrafficcapacityisalsolimited.Infact,asmoreroadsarebuilt,thenumberofcarsdrivingonthemincreases.EconomistsDurantonandTurnercallthis“TheFundamentalLawofRoadCongestion.”1Asanexample, in2016,LosAngeleswasgiventhedubiousdistinctionofhavingtheworsttrafficofanycityintheUnitedStates.2ThiscomesdespitesignificantfreewaywideningprojectsinthecityfundedbytheAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentActof2009.Trafficengineerscallthisproblem“induceddemand,”whichmeansmorepeopleopttodrivewhenroadwaysareenlarged,ratherthantakepublictransportation.Moreroadsareclearlyanonproductivesolutiontothetrafficproblem.Traffic congestion contributes to a number of health problems, both for individuals and theplanet.LosAngelesDriversloseover$1,700inproductivityeachyear,3ortimethatmightbespent with friends and family. A 2012 study from the American Journal of PreventativeMedicineshowedthosewhodriveintrafficweighalmost7poundsmorethanthosewhotakepublictransportation.4Ontheenvironmentalside,LosAngelestrafficproducedover33millionmetric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) in 2015,5a greenhouse gas that contributes to climatechange.There is a need for short-distance transport that does not require the automobile. For thehealthofAmericansandtheenvironment,improvingtransportationinfrastructurehasbecomecritical.Anothersolutiontotrafficcongestionhasbeenthecreationoflightrailsystems.Lightrailisanefficientmodeoftransportationtoshuttlepeopleacrosscities.Infact,mostlightrailsystemsintheUnitedStatesarelimitedbydemandmorethancapacity.6Unfortunately,thereareseveralhindrancestotherapiddevelopmentofthesetransportationsystems.Thefirstiscost:newlightrailconstructionrequiresover$70millionpermile.7Thisisexpensivecompared to freewayconstruction,whichmaycostas littleas$1millionper lane-mile.8Anothersignificantproblemfornewrailconstructionistheneedforland.Asseentheattempted expansion of the Purple Line in Los Angeles, lawsuits and NIMBY have haltedconstruction throughareas suchasBeverlyHills.9 There is clearly aneed formass transit toaccommodate the capacity of commuters, but light rail development has been slow andexpensive(sometimesforlegalreasons).

Anadditionalconcernwithrailsystems issafety. Accidentsrelatedto lightrailhaverecentlyattractedattention.TheU.S.DepartmentofTransportationrecentlyreleasedareportshowinglight rail fatalities are higher than other forms of transportation (second only tomotorcycletravel)with31.5fatalitiesper100millionmiles.10Despite these limitations, light-rail remains an important and efficient part of mass transit.There isaneedhowever,forshort-distancemasstransitthat issafe, inexpensive,andrapidlydeployed.

TheMonorailasTransportationCapacitytoMeettheDemandWhile the monorail is often seen as a Disneyland-type amusement, there are reasons toseriouslyconsiderthemonorailasameansofpublictransport.ThelargestexpenseandconcernforthedevelopmentofmasstransitinUScitieshasbeentheacquisitionoflandforconstruction.Byutilizingnarrowpylonsupports,monorailtrackscanbesuspendedwithminimal demolition of existing structures. Limiting the demolition requiredduring construction helps avoid legal entanglements and the objections of NIMBYites. Ingeneral, publicopinionhas shown support formonorail projects, including Seattle11andpastfavorablevotesinLosAngeles.12WhyamonorailhasnotbeenconstructedinLosAngelesisapointofmuchspeculation,perhapsduetopoliticallobbyingagainsttheprojects.12Regardless,a grand opportunity exists to create new infrastructure with short-distance transit tocomplementexistingpublictransportation.

Figure 1. Transportation solutions must consider Capacity, Economic, and Environmental Impact

An additional benefit to monorail transport is capacity. As with light rail, this form oftransportationisonlylimitedbydemand,notbycapacity(asareroadsandfreeways).Chinaishome to the largest volume of monorail riders, with Line 3 in Chongqing hosting 682,800

passengers per day, with 32,000 passengers/hour at its peak.13 The Chongqing Rail Transit(CRT)hasalsoshownthatdistancecanbecoveredeffectivelywithmonoraillines.TheCRThasover125milesoftracktohandleitsaveragedailyridershipof1.73millionpeople.14Inregardtosafety,modernmonorailshaveastellar record. Sincethereareno intersectionswithpeople,cars,orbikes,thechanceofacollisionisalmostnil. Today’smonorailshavethebest safety statistics of any mode of transportation, having carried over two billion ridersworldwidewithoutasinglepassengerfatality.15Environmental impact is another benefit of these transit systems. Clean, electric runningmonorailswilldecreasecarbonemissionsfromvehiclesidlingintraffic. Thetracksupportsofmonorail systems exhibit efficient land-use and limit the environmental impact created bydemolitionofexistingstructures.The costofmonorail projects is similar to light rail at anaverageof$77million/mile vs. $78million/mile. Therefore, cost considerations should not be a hindrance to implementingmonorailoverlight-railsystems.

LightRailLine CostperMile(millions)

Dallas $41.38SanDiego-MissionValley $73.05Denver $46.45KansasCity $44.23Minneapolis $47.70NewJersey:Hudson-BergenII $182.43OrangeCounty $68.57Orlando $41.10SanDiego-MidCoast $30.76SanFrancisco $79.59Seattle $208.33Average $78.51

Table 1 - Light Rail Construction Average Cost per Mile16

MonorailLine CostperMile(millions)

Okinawa $44.00KualaLumpur $57.92LasVegas $88.00PalmJumeirah,Dubai $118.10Average $77.01

Table 2 - Monorail Average Construction Costs per Mile17

“TheDream”TransitOrientedDevelopment(TOD):TheHub-and-SpokeModelTheworkingpopulation isno longerescapingtothesuburbs, insteadpeoplearemoving intocities,wheretheycanlive,work,play,anddream.“TheDream”isanevolutionofthemoderncity,usingthemonorailasaconnectiontonovellive-workstructures.Thisnewcityhashubsofresidential units, retail, and public spaces that are connected by efficient monorail trains.Monorailwill not replace existing light-rail, but complement itwith short-haulmovement ofridersbetweenretail/residentialhubs.

As a response to an influx of individuals from suburbs to cities, there has been movementtoward Transit Oriented Development (TOD) or “Transit Proximate Development.” TODconsists of residential or retail centers that act as hubs, with transportation systems as thespokes.Thishub-and-spokemodelhasbeensuccessfulinmanypartsoftheworld.Theoldestexample is Curribita, Brazilwhere 85% of its population uses its Bus Rapid Transit System.18AnotherTODislocatedintheBridgelandCommunityofCalgary,Canada.Here,asystemcalledTheBridgesinterconnectscondominiumdevelopments,restaurants,retailshops,andparks.Asaresult,Bridgelandhasbeencalledoneof themost“livable”cities inCalgary.19Notonlydoresidents of Calgary enjoy the “walkable” nature of this community, TODhas produced newjobsandanincreaseinaveragehouseholdincomesby22%.20IntheUnitesStates,theBayAreaRapidTransit (BART)connectsSanFranciscotooutlyingareas,andhashelpedcreate“TransitVillages,”includingthedevelopmentofcitiessuchasFremont,UnionCity,andHayward.21Thisisanotherexampleofthepositiveeconomicimpactofsuchprojects.

Residential/RetailDevelopment:“TheHubs”Inthismodel,the“Hub”willbeaself-containedmixed-usedevelopmentproject. Multi-storyresidentialunitswillanchoreachHub.SeveralcommercialspaceswithintheHubwillallowfortheadditionof retailandservices. TheseHubswillalsoprovidepublic spaces suchasparks,museums,orart installations. TheHubwillbeahomeformany,anda retaildestination forothers.Creatingsuchadevelopmentallowsfortheprovisionofemploymentalongsidehousing.Themonorailwillenter these transithubsaboveground, improvingsafety forpedestrians,byavoidingvehiculartraffic. Retailwillbeopenedatrail-level,makingpurchasesconvenientforboth residents and visitors. Residential unitswill occupy the highest floors of the buildings,withofficespacesresidinginthemid-to-lowerlevels.Theseofficespaceswillhostprofessionalservicesorsmallercompaniesliketech“start-ups.”Atthestreetlevel,additionalretailspacesaremadeavailable,whichareeasilyaccessedbythegeneralpublic.

Thebudgeting for these developmentswill includeopen andpublic spaces. Thesemight beparks, outdoor athletic facilities, or sculpture gardens. There will be a requirement for theplantingofgreenfoliageintheseopenspaces,contributingtoapleasantpark-likeatmosphere.OneexampleofanexistingtransportationhubinaTODdevelopmentcanbeseenhere: TheMiltonResidences-Brisbane,Australia.

TheMonorailas“Spokes”Thereareanumberoffeaturesthatdifferentiatethisprojectfromexistingtransitoptions.Oneisthefocusonshort-distancetravelbetweenpre-designedtransithubs.Thisproposalcreatesnewmicrocosms within the existing infrastructure of the city. The monorail trains providelightweight,safe,andefficienttravelbetweendestinations.Again,monorail does not replace light-rail trains, but complements them, intersecting theselines inkeyareas,providingalternative transportation toalternative livingandworkinghubs.Light-rail and commuter trains will shuttle passengers longer distances, including inter-citytravel. The monorail trains provide passage in approximately 1-mile increments within theurban environment. When we look at ridership from similar established TOD projects,residentsandemployees fromthesurroundingcommunity showan increase inpublic transituse.20 It could be predicted that about 37%of residentswithin½mile of the hubwill beginusingtherapidtransitsystem.22Thesehubshavebeenshowntoeffectivelyproduceridershipwhenlocatedwithina½mileoftherider’sresidence;similarly,highest levelsofridershipforcommutersisseenwhenthehubislocatedwithin¼mile.22Thesefigureshighlighttheneedforshort-distancetransportationtoattractpassengers.

Implementationof“TheDream”EnlistingDeveloperSupportTheimplementationofthisprojectisuniqueinthatitenliststhefundingofdeveloperstocoverthecostsassociatedwiththeproject.Thisincludesthecostsofbuildingthemonorailsystem,propertypurchases,andthephysicaldevelopmentofmixed-usehubs. The initialprojectwillstartwith8transithubs,with interconnectedtrains. Asingledeveloperwhocommits tothedevelopmentofonetransithubalsoshares1/8ofthecostsinvolvedinbuildingthemonorailsystem. In this way, the investors will benefit from ownership of concentrated retail andresidential property, while the public benefits from the development of an efficient transitsystem,alsoprovidingadditionaljobsandhousing.A key consideration for implementation is developing key relationships not only withdevelopers, but also with local government officials. The design and planning process willinclude input frommultiple stakeholders during the implementation phase. Designs will becompleted and finalizedwith the input of the city planning office, board of supervisors, andothercityorcountyofficials. Thiswillaid intheefficientprocessingofenvironmental impactreports, permits, etc. Developers will be heavily involved in the design process andwill betaskedwithpropertypurchasesandleases. Forthisreason,developerswillneedtoagreeonthepathofmonorailtracksandthelocationofmixed-usedevelopments.

Figure 2 - Sample Project Timeline

To build environmentally friendly and efficient trains, requests for proposals (RFPs) will beelicitedfrommajorfirms.Thesewillbeoverseenbythecreationofatransitboardcomprisedofdevelopersand localofficials. Thisboardwillhave theultimatedecision-makingauthorityforthedesignandconstructionoftheentiredevelopment.

EvaluationMetricsBroadSuccessMeasuresAwidearrayofmetricswillbeinvestigatedtoevaluatethesuccessoftheproject.Thefirstisridership, with calculated Equivalent of VehicleMiles Traveled. Housing capacity and trafficimpactwillbemeasuredaswell.MetricswillalsobedesignatedforTransitQualityandRiderSatisfaction. Thecosteffectivenessoftheprojectcanbeevaluatedfromanumberofangles.Inaddition toFareCollection,OperatingExpensePerPassengerMilewillbecalculated. Thismetric is exemplified by U.S. buses, which cost an average of $1.00 per passenger mile,compared to $0.60 per passenger mile for rail operations.22 Economic Impact can also bemeasured;thismayincludeaveragehouseholdincomewithina0.1mi,0.25mi,0.5mi,and1miradiusofthetransithub. Fromanenvironmentalstandpoint,reductioninenergyuseandcarbonemissionsmayalsobetracked.Detailedandvariedmetricsprovideholisticmeasuresofsuccessfortheproject,assuringpublicandpoliticalsupportforthedevelopment.

References 1GillesDuranton&MatthewA.Turner,2011."TheFundamentalLawofRoadCongestion:EvidencefromUSCities,"AmericanEconomicReview,2http://inrix.com/los-angeles-traffic-is-the-worst-in-the-united-states/3http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-is-los-angeles-traffic-the-worst-20150826-story.html4http://www.cnn.com/2015/04/06/health/commute-bad-for-you/5Sorensen,Paul,MartinWachs,EndyM.Daehner,AaronKofner,LiisaEcola,MarkHanson,AllisonYoh,ThomasLightandJamesGriffin.ReducingTrafficCongestioninLosAngeles.SantaMonica,CA:RANDCorporation,2008.http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9385.html.6Hanson,Susan;Giuliano,Genevieve(2004).Thegeographyofurbantransportation.GuilfordPress.7“USLightRailCostsNear$70MillionperMile”http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-lrt00capcost.htm8HighwayConstructionCostComparisonSurveyFinalReport"(PDF).WashingtonStateDepartmentofTransportation.April2002.p.3.https://web.archive.org/web/20090905215838/http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/biz/construction/pdf/I-C_Const_Cost.pdf9Smith,S.J.“L.A.Transit:BreakingDowntheEnemies,theLawsuitsandtheFuture”https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/ethan-elkind-book-railtown-losangeles-rail-lawsuits10"NationalTransportationStatistics2013"(PDF).U.S.DepartmentofTransportation.http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/NTS_Entire_13Q4.pdf11https://books.google.com/books?id=0nwbDqaxSToC&lpg=PA206&ots=9ZiHf-W7wN&dq=public%20opinion%20monorail&pg=PA206#v=onepage&q=public%20opinion%20monorail&f=false12“WhyMonorail?”http://www.monorails.org/tMspages/Why.html13“重庆轨道 3号线成世界上最繁忙的单轨线”http://cq.cri.cn/115/2014/11/21/5s720.htm14http://www.cq.xinhuanet.com/2013-05/02/c_115606517.htm15“Monorail-Safety/Hazards”http://www.theamericanmonorailproject.com/comparative-matrix/monorail-safety-hazards16http://www.publicpurpose.com/ut-lrt00capcost.htm17http://www.monorails.org/tMspages/HowMuch.html18https://trans4m.org/2014/11/25/brazil-curitibas-rapid-growth-through-rapid-transit/19CalgaryFFWDWeekly(2013)."BestofCalgaryWinners"20"CommunitySocialStatistics:Bridgeland/Riverside"(PDF).21MichaelBernick,RobertCervero(1996).TransitVillagesinthe21stCentury.UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley:McGrawHill.22https://jackimurdock.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/public-transit-performance.pdf