08 December 2008
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Transcript of 08 December 2008
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New Perspectives on Climate Change Research
in Brazil
Carlos NobreCenter for Earth System Science
National Institute for Space Research – INPEand
Executive Coordinator of the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change
08 December 2008
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Contents …
• Introduction: the role of S&T for sustainable development
• New research programs on climate change in Brazil: – FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate
Change– Climate Change Research Network – Rede
CLIMA– National Institute for Climate Change Research
• Conclusion: the National Climate Change Plan
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Perc
enta
ge o
f Glo
bal A
nnua
l Em
issio
ns
KyotoProtocolAdopted
57%
43%
UNFCCC
62%
38%
KyotoProtocolEntered into Force
49.7%
50.3%
Current
47%
Kyoto Protocol
Regional Shift in Emissions Share
J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication
Top Emitters1. China2. USA4. Russia3. India
53%
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Recent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C
O2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
SRES (2000) aver. growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010:
A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61
Observed 2000-2007 3.5%
20062005
2007
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project (2008)
(Avgs.)
Top Emitters1. China2. USA4. Russia3. India
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Emissões Brasileiras de CO2eq (1994)
1%
55%25%
2%
17%
EnergiaProcessos IndustriaisUso de Solventes e Outros ProdutosAgropecuáriaMudança no Uso da Terra e FlorestasTratamento de Resíduos
20%
Considering GWP of CH4 = 21
Inventory of Brazilian Emissions by Sector (CO2-eq)
Land UseChange Agriculture
Energy
1% of GDP30% of GDP
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Number of articles by geographical coverage - 2002 - 2007
Developed Countries
2153 (81,4%)
Developing Countries
328 (13,5%)
Latin America68 (2,7%)
Brazil38 (1,5%)
São Paulo24 (0,9%)
Selection of published articles with key words “climate change”in based on 20 journals (e.g., Science, Nature, PNAS, J. Climate, Climatic Change etc.), during the last 5 years (2003-2007).
Average Brazilian contributions is 2% (all areas)
Contributions of Brazilian research institutions to the science of climate change
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Can Tropical Countries become fully developed in the 21st Century following sustainable pathways?
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Pathways for Earth Sustainability in Brazil
The role of S&T The challenge of our generation is to invent a new
development paradigm for the Global Tropics, based on S&T, recognizing that rational use of their abundant renewable natural resources and biodiversity can be the key factor for development.
This new development paradigm must rest upon a robust capacity to observe and model the Earth System.
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The time has come for Global Climate Change Research in Brazil …
Why is it important?
• Over 50% of Brazil’s GDP is dependent on renewable natural resources (agriculture, hydropower, etc.)
• Large vulnerable populations to extremes of climate and weather (farmers in semi-arid Northeast Brazil and poor urban population)
• Many other vulnerabilities• Unlike other rapidly developing countries, it is quite feasible
to reduce emissions
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Challenges for Brazilian Research Programs on Climate Change in the Next Decade
• Detection and attribution of causes of climate change• Understanding of global biogeochemical cycles• Natural climate variability versus climate change• Global climate system models and scenarios
• Strategies to mitigate emissions of Greenhouse gases in Brazil
• Key vulnerabilities to climate change
• Increase in adaptative capacity
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The science of global climate change: major challenges
• Quantification of systemic risks
• Reduction of uncertainties of projections and turning them more relevant at the regional scales and for adaptation (e.g., projections of extremes)
• Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research
• Radically new decarbonization technologies
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Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change Research – “Rede CLIMA”
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Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change Research – “Rede CLIMA”
• Established at the end of 2007 by the Ministry of S&T to expand the knowledge basis on climate change, impacts, adaptation, vulnerabilty and mitigation
• Main Goal: increase Brazil’s capacity to cope with the challenges of global environmental change
• It will articulate over 50 research groups in Brazil covering a broad range of interdisciplinary research on all dimensions of global environmental change
• Budget: US$ 15 million over 3 years to start implementation
• It involves initially 10 interconnected themes
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Themes of “Rede CLIMA” with Focal Points
Water ResourcesUFPE, Recife
Regional DevelopmentUnB, Brasília
Coastal ZonesFURG, Rio Grande
Biodiversity and EcossistemsMPEG, Belém
Cities and IndustryUnicamp, Campinas
AgricultureEMBRAPA, Campinas
Renewable EnergyCOPPE / UFRJ, RJ
Human HealthFiocruz, RJEconomy of Climate Change
USP, São PauloClimate ModelingINPE
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New Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputer for Climate Change Research
Sustained Throughput
15 Tflop/s
Main Memory 20 TBytes
Primary Storage 400 TBytes
AquisitionInstallations
2008First half of 2009
Total budget US$ 22.5 M
...
This new system will be the 6th most powerful in the world in climate change research by mid-2009
It will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 10 km !
FNDCT - US$ 15 MFAPESP - US$ 7.5M
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The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research
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The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research
• Competitive Call for Proposals for National Institutes of S&T (INCT): US$ 250 M; 101 INCTs selected
• The National Institute for Climate Change:
- 26 research projects covering the science of climate change, impact-adaptation-vulnerability studies, and mitigation; technological developments in climate modeling and geosensors
- 90 research groups in Brazil and 8 countries; 400 researchers and students involved
- US$ 3.5 M (+ US$ 5 M from Rede CLIMA) for 3 years
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GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL
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Collective effort to develop the Brazilian Climate System Model
Mid 2000s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Dynamic
Vegetation
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Atmosphere
Around 2000Late 1990sEarly 1990sMid-1980sMid-1970s
FAQ 1.2, Figure 1
The Climate System
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Development of a Global Climate System Model
• Two-pronged approach: (i) full use of experience of CPTEC and (ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad
– Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the structuring building block
– Add components: dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle; ocean carbon cycle; enhanced sea ice and pack ice; GHG and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, etc.
– 5 year project with engagement of many modeling groups in Brazil
– Capacity development in many areas
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Brazil’s participation in IPCC AR5 global climate model simulations
• International collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad: Hadley Centre and NCAR-ORNL, and others likely
• Design of simulations to add value to IPCC AR5 ensembles: higher ensemble sizes, higher resolution, different modules and/or physics, chemistry, vegetation, etc.
• Simulations to be carried out in Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputing Facility at INPE (likely from last quarter of 2009 through the fist quarter of 2011)
• Open data policy access for all simulations
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FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change
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FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change
• Carefully thought-out research plan (2 years)• Long term research Program: 10 years warranted• First Call for Proposals launched: US$ 7.5 million• Two-pronged Call for Proposals:
– US$ 6 million on scientific basis, impacts, and mitigation themes
– US$ 1.5 million to develop the Brazilian Global Climate System Model (4 years)
• Contribution to the development of a full-fledged Earth System Model
• Supercomputer facility and support for model use and development
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Development of a Brazilian Global Climate System Model
• A single proposal will be selected• Consortium of research institutions lead by São Paulo
State institution (but engaging institutions from all over Brazil and from abroad)
• Build-up of existing experience and models developed in Brazil
• Applied to climate change research• No “black-box” solution accepted• Aims at developing capacity in all components of Global
Climate System Model• Strongly associated to PhD training• Four years duration; US$ 1.5 M
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National Climate Change Plan
• Federal Government has launched a National Climate Change Plan
• Climate Change Fund to be established: estimates of US$ 400 million/year for adaptation, mitigation and S&T development
• Rede CLIMA, INCT for Climate Change and the FAPESP Program (and other research programs being established) will form the pillar for the R&D portion of the National Climate Change Plan