08-10.45 - IORDANIS AIVAZIS - OTE.pptforums.capitallink.com/greece/2008/pres/aivazis.pdf ·...
Transcript of 08-10.45 - IORDANIS AIVAZIS - OTE.pptforums.capitallink.com/greece/2008/pres/aivazis.pdf ·...
-
OTE
OTE: Driving the Group ForwardOTE: Driving the Group Forward
10th Annual Capital Link Forum,New York, October 30, 2008
-
OTE
| OTE Group Overview| B i R i| Business Review| Financial Review| Appendix
2
-
OTE
| OTE Group Overview
-
OTEAt a Glance
Group Structure(1)
Fixed-line telephony
Mobile telephony OTE SAGreeceOther operations
Shareholder Structure (Sep 30, 2008)
Deutsche
Telekom
22.0%
Hellenic State
28.0%
Cosmote RomTelecomOTEestate
Greece
OTE GlobeGreece
100% 54%
100%
100%
Greek
Institutional
Investors
10.1%
International
Institutional Oth
Leading integrated telecommunications operator
Listed on Athens (HTO GA), London (OTES LI) &
GlobulBulgaria
AMCAlbania
CosmoteGreece
RomTelecomRomania
82% 100%
Hellas SatGreece
OTESat-MaritelGreece
99%
94%
Investors
31.9%
Other
8.0%
( ), ( )New York Stock Exchange (OTE)
Market capitalization (Oct’08): around €5bn
Group H1’08 Revenues: €3,128mn
CosmofonFYROM
70%100% CosmoteRomania
30%
Other
4
Group H1’08 EBITDA*: €1,157mn
DPS (2007): €0.75
* Excluding provisions related to employee exit programs (1) Major Companies of the Group
GermanosS.E.Europe
90%
-
Voice, Mobile and Data
OTEBULGARIANumber 2
Leader in Southeast Europe
GREECEIncumbent/ Leader
ROMANIAIncumbent/ Leader
Number 2Mobile market share: 39%Customers (000): 3,945
Bulgaria
Romania
Serbia
Total Lines (000): 5,613ADSL Subscribers (000): 892
Mobile market share: 40%Customers (000): 6,921
Total Lines (000): 2,994ADSL Subscribers (000): 505
ChallengerMobile market share: 19%
FYROM
Greece
Albania
( ) ,Customers (000): 4,643
Through Germanos, OTE
Cyprus
ALBANIAL d
FYROMN b 2
g ,Group operates the most efficient telecoms/technology retail network in Southeast Europe
5
LeaderMobile market share: 52%Customers (000): 1,280
OTE also owns 20% of Telecom Serbia, the incumbent operator in Serbia
Note: Data as of June 30, 2008
Number 2Mobile market share: 31% Customers (000): 640
-
OTERecent Corporate Developments
OTE appoints OTE
OTE announces reduced ADSL tariffs and new access speed
OTE issues €2 1bn in
ADSL subscribers in Greece exceed 1mn
OTE splits
OTE announces new exit program for 200 employees
OTE Estate receives HCMC license to operate a REIC
OTE holds 100% of Cosmote shares and de-lists Cosmote
Greek Parliament ADSL subscribers in
2007
OTE appoints new Cosmote CEO and CFO
OTE announces sale of Infote directories for €300mn
2008
OTE issues €2.1bn in fixed coupon bonds to finance Cosmote minority buy-out
OTE splits business & residential customer division
Greek Parliament ratifies shareholder agreement with DT
ADSL subscribers in Greece exceed 1.5mn
2007
Oct Nov Dec
2008
Jan Feb Mar MayApr Jun Jul OctSep
OTE announces €2.8bn public offer for Cosmote minorities
OTE completes Public Offer for Cosmote shares. Cosmote stake raised to 98.6%*
Deutsche Telekom signs conditional agreement to acquire
-
OTENew Controlling Shareholder
Greek State – Deutsche Telekom Agreement
– Agreement ratified by Greek Parliament June 18, 2008; expected to be concluded before year-end
– DT initially acquired from MIG 98.03mn OTE shares (19.99% stake) on May 15, 2008, then proceeded with p rchase agreement purchase agreement
– DT acquired from the market 9.65mn OTE shares (1.97% stake) during Jun 25 - Jul17, 2008
– Acquisition approved by European Commission on Oct 2, 2008
– DT will acquire 14 87mn more OTE shares (3 03% stake) from the Greek State after remaining regulatory
DT will end up with 122.54mn OTE shares (25% stake), Greek State will retain 122.54mn OTE shares (25% stake) & DT will control OTE according to the clauses of purchase agreement
DT will acquire 14.87mn more OTE shares (3.03% stake) from the Greek State, after remaining regulatory approvals are received
– As of Q4’08, the Greek State holds 1-year put option to sell a further 5.0% stake of OTE to DT
– Additionally, 12 months following the execution of the 3% block trade & until 31 Dec 2011, Greek State holds another put option to sell 10.0% plus any portion of OTE shares it has not sold to DT pursuant to the first put
ti
7
option
-
OTEOperational Overview
Despite tougher domestic market conditions & continued regulatory restrictions, OTE has continued to perform strongly as a Group. This has been supported by:
Control of market share erosion in domestic fixed-line Control of market share erosion in domestic fixed line
Ongoing outstanding growth in mobile
Successful execution of employee reduction programs in Romanian fixed-line, improving efficiency
Going forward, OTE expects to improve its operational performance by focusing on key strategic areas:
Implementation of integrated offerings in domestic fixed, broadband & mobile platformsImplementation of integrated offerings in domestic fixed, broadband & mobile platforms
Steady broadband growth, both in Greece & Romania
Continued mobile growth in most markets
Further efficiency measures in domestic fixed-line & cost cutting initiatives by Cosmote & Germanos
8
Germanos
-
OTE
| Business Review
-
Greek Fixed-line
OTEKey Market Trends
-0.7%Y oY : -1.1% -5.0% -7.7%
OTE line loss (000)
Continuous access line loss reflecting further growth of LLU due to:
Aggressive promotional policies of
46 67 241 306
2005 2006 2007 H1 08
– Aggressive promotional policies of alternative carriers, as well as ongoing migration from Carrier Pre-Selection to LLU
– Mobile operators offering fixed-line products
Broadband market (000)
OTE ADSL* LLU
products
Total ADSL market reaches ca. 1.4 million subscribers at the end of Jun’08
155 488
892 825 725
310500
OTE broadband customers in H1’08 reach 892K, with OTE’s retail market share remaining slightly above 50%
10
2005 2006 2007 H1 08
* OTE ADSL includes Retail & Wholesale
-
Greek Fixed-line
OTEKey Operational Trends
>50%
-
Mobile
OTE
Top line growth still driven by
Operations OverviewCustomer base (mn)
Further upside in mobile market
Top-line growth still driven by subscriber numbers and usage growth Focus on targeted subscriber acquisition/retention initiatives
Greece#1
6.92
4.64
0.47
5.22
1.23
3.27
0.99 0.59
6.27
3.87
1.20
3.62
1.28
3.95
0.64
2006 2007 H1 08
Strong performance in post-paid
Romania#3
Further upside in mobile market penetrationFocused on expanding post-paid subscriber base and increasing profitability
Greec e Romania Bulgaria A lbania FY ROM
Revenues (€ mn)
1,6311,736
2006 2007 H1 08
Strong performance in post-paid customer segmentFocus on corporate customers
Bulgaria#2
A pre paid market with strong Alb i
54151342
44
1,631
62176412
156 3091210
117
880
Greec e Romania Bulgaria A lbania FY ROM
Rapid roll out of 3G networkFYROM
A pre-paid market with strong marginsConsolidate market position
Albania#1 EBITDA margin (%)
43.136.9
60.3
17.3
41.7 39.262.0
31.042.0
40.8
63.5
27.9
2006 2007 H1 08
12
OTE in the process of divesting FYROM#2
Greec e Romania Bulgaria A lbania FY ROM
-
Mobile
OTESelected Markets
Greece Romania
37% 37% 37% 37% 38% 38%39% 40%
Estimated market share
7%10% 11% 13%
16% 18% 19%
Estimated market share
2005 2006 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 2007 Q1 08 Q2 08
Blended monthly AMOU (minutes)
2006 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08
64Revenues EBITDA(€ mn)
138153 153
163 169 170177 183
2005 2006 3M 07 6M 07 9M 07 2007 3M 08 6M 08
44 27 36 4250 53 64
(66)
(11) (8) (9) (12) (8)
5
2006 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08
Market share expansion
Mix of 30:70 for post-/pre-paid at the end of H1’08
Market share expansion
Total post-paid subscribers around 800K
– 414K post-paid net adds in 2007;
13
Steady usage increase boosting service revenue growth
414K post paid net adds in 2007; 161K in H1’08
Positive EBITDA achieved in Q2’08
-
RomTelecom
OTEKey Trends
Developing a more customer-oriented approach
– Set up of 2 commercial units, dedicated to business and residential clients
– Fixed-line value (flat rate) offers since Q2’07
RomTelecom line loss (000)
(65) (63)
11
(14) (27)
– Lower monthly fees for ADSL subscriptions (up to 4Mbps) since Q2’07
– Satellite TV - digital TV, under Dolce brand, launched in late 2006
(122)
(65)
(234)
(181)
(135)
(63)
(133)
Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08
Reorganization to allow further headcount reduction by up to 2.5K
– process initiated early ’08; provision taken in H1’08 (€32.6mn cost)
2K jobs shed in H1’08
RomTelecom Broadband/ Pay TV subscribers (000)
– 2K jobs shed in H1 08
Efforts to contain access line churn starting to pay off
DSL subscriber take-up remains strong
– 271K customer additions in 2007; 145K in H1’08 89
505
26
528
8
360390
ADSL Pay TV
14
Pay TV offering well accepted
– 502K new customers within last 1.5 year
80
2005 2006 2007 H1 08
-
OTE
| Financial Review
-
OTERevenue Trends
Group RevenuesGeographical Revenue Mix (H1’08)*
(€ mn)
FYROM
1%
Albania
2%B l i
6,3205,891 7.3%
2.2%3,060 3,128
Bulgaria
7%
Romania
17%
2006 2007 H1 07 H1 08
Greece
73%
OTE Cosmote RomTelecom OtherH1’08 Group revenues up 2.2%
– Greek fixed-line revenue decrease by 3.5% mainly due to lower traffic
– Continued strong growth across all mobile markets (8.1% total revenue increase), supported by market h i t b ib t k & hi h d it i t ti t t i G B l i
16* Revenues presented gross of eliminations.Note: Comparable revenues exclude H1’07 Infote revenues, the Group’s Greek directories business sold in Q4’07
share gains, strong subscriber take up & higher usage, despite interconnection rate cuts in Greece-Bulgaria & new competitors in FYROM, Albania & Romania
Comparable Group Revenues up 3.2%
-
OTEEBITDA Trends
2 167 2,241
EBITDA EBITDA margin %
4.3%
(€ mn)
EBITDA TrendsEBITDA Mix(1) (H1’08)
15750 1,158
2,167 2,241
1,106 1,157
45.2%100%
3.4%
36 8%428
523 13.5%
4 7%
O T E C o smo t e R o mT eleco m O t her O T E G r o up
37.0%
36.8%
36.1%
428 35.5%
37.0%
4.7%
2006 2007 H1 07 H1 08O T E C o smo t e R o mT eleco m O t her O T E G r o up
H1’08 Group margin up 0.9pp, mainly due to strong mobile performance
– 33.3% Greek fixed-line EBITDA margin
Group EBITDA up 4.7% in H1’08; 5.5% on a comparable basis
– Greek fixed-line EBITDA increase by 0.1% in
17(1) Incl. €1.3mn intercompany eliminationsNote: EBITDA excluding Greek VRP impact and provisions related to other employee exit programs. Comparable EBITDA excludes H1’07 Infote EBITDA
33.3% Greek fixed line EBITDA margin
– Mobile EBITDA margin improvement in all major units
Greek fixed line EBITDA increase by 0.1% in H1’08
– Mobile EBITDA increase by 12.9% in H1’08
-
OTECash Flow Trends
2,167 2,241 Maintaining strong cash flow generation, in
conjunction with CAPEX decrease & lower cash
Cash Flow (€ mn)
1,1571,205 1,140
782
payments to pension funds
Group Capital Expenditure in H1’08 down 19.8%
from H1’07 levels
– Reflecting lower investments in Romanian
fixed-line & mobile operations
(962)(1,101)
(375)
– CAPEX will be normalized during H2’08
18
EBITDA CAPEX FCF
Notes: EBITDA excluding impact of Greek VRP and provisions related to other employee exit programs. FCF defined as EBITDA less CAPEX
2006 2007 H1 08
-
Management Consistency in
OTE
l
Delivering Commitments
ArmenTel sold in Nov 2006 for €349mnArmenTel sale Completed
OTE successfully completes VRP (5.4K employees) in Oct 2006 Completed Operational efficiency
OTEGlobe (international wholesale telephony) de-consolidation from OTE SA in 2007
OTEGlobe de-consolidation
Infote (directory enquiries) sold in Dec 2007 for €300mnInfote sale Completed
Completed
OTE issues €2.1bn in fixed coupon bonds to finance Cosmote minority buy-out in Feb 2008
Cosmote bridge refinancing
Completed
Absorption of Otenet (domestic ISP) within OTE SA legally completed Jun 2008
Otenet merger Completed
OTE reaches 100% in Cosmote in Apr 2008Cosmote buyout Completed
19
New exit program for more than 600 employees X PendingOperational efficiency
-
OTEStrategic Guidelines Going Forward
Proceed with the integration of the Group, which after the sale of non core assets & the acquisition of Cosmote minorities, has the right size & shape
Capitalize on the strengths of the new controlling shareholder, which will bring significant advantages on managerial, financial, technological & strategic level
20
-
OTE
| Appendix
21
-
G FTTH I i i iOTE
Government FTTH Initiative
Government FTTH Initiative:– Open passive optical network– 2mn homes & enterprises in major cities– “Open access”, point-to-point network model – At least 100 Mbps/user– Network deployment within 7 years
Description
1st tier: Infrastructure Provider; provides fiber (passive network) 2nd tier: Communication Provider; provides wholesale access (active network) 3rd tier: Service Providers; provides retail service
3-tier service model
Project implemented through Public & Private Sector Ventures, divided into 3 different geographical regionsDuration: 30 years
Business modely
Indicative Budget: €2.1bn Greek state financing ca.1/3 of total; possibility for preferential lending terms by European Investment Bank
End 2008:– Submission of Project Plan to E.U.– Public consultation
Project plan
H1 2009:– Approval by Inter-Ministerial Committee– Selection of consultantH2 2009:– Call for Tenders
Yet to be clarifiedRegulatory
22
Yet to be clarifiedRegulatory treatment
-
OTEMobile Termination Rates
Romania: regulatory framework not yet fully implemented Greece: regulatory framework implemented
Jan 2007 11.74Jun 2007 10.67Feb 2008 9.89Jan 2009 7 89 Current 8.40Jan 2009 7.89Jan 2010 6.24Jan 2011 4.95
Albania: regulator influenced by EU policiesBulgaria: regulatory framework not yet fully implemented
Feb 2008 17.60Jul 2008 16.10 Current 9 80Jan 2009 14.40Jul 2009 12.00
Current 9.80
23Note: MTR in eurocents per minute on Cosmote’s network
-
OTEOTE Group Debt
Debt maturity profile as of 30 June 2008 (€ mn)
639
2,187
453
1,254602
9026333
26
€6.5bn EMTN program
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-20
Moody’sp g
Fixed/floating ratio 82/18
Average cost of debt around 5% post-refinancing
H1’08 Net Debt of €4.6bn in line with current rating
Moody s
– Baa2, Stable outlook
S&P’s
– BBB+, Negative outlook
24
and financial strength (2x EBITDA)
Note: Major OTE Group liabilities presented
OTE also maintains committed lines of €350mn
Moody’s as of May 19, 2008
S&P’s as of November 12, 2007
, g
-
OTEMacroeconomic Environment
RomaniaGreece
GDP growth 3.5%, expected to slow down CPI 4.2%, decreasing
GDP growth 6.5%, expected to slow downCPI 8.0%
X Inflationary & deficit concerns
Customer defaults are not increasingMobile postpaid is not migrating to prepaidDSL migration to higher speeds is not slowing down
X Inflationary & deficit concernsHigh Foreign Direct Investment levels
Mobile postpaid growth remains strongBroadband growth uninterrupted
AlbaniaBulgaria
GDP growth 5.8%, expected to slow downCPI 8.0%
GDP growth 6.0%, expected flattishCPI 4.2%, decreasing
X Inflationary & deficit concerns
Growing post-paid customer segment Steady mobile usage increase Steady mobile usage increase
25Macroeconomic data source: Bank of Greece, Oct 08. All GDP & CPI data as of 2008E
-
OTEOTE Group Financial Highlights
IFRS(€ mn)
2006 2007 % Diff H1’07 H1’08 % Diff
Revenues 5,891.3 6,319.8 7.3% 3,059.9 3,128.0 2.2%
Operating Income 1,088.3 1,046.9 -3.8% 513.1 527.8 2.9%
Pro Forma EBITDA 2,167.0 2,240.8 3.4% 1,106.0 1,157.4 4.7%
Pro Forma EBITDA margin 36 8% 35 5% -1 3pp 36 1% 37 0 0 9ppPro Forma EBITDA margin 36.8% 35.5% 1.3pp 36.1% 37.0 0.9pp
Net Income 574.6 662.6 15.3% 277.5 300.4 8.3%
Basic EPS (€/share) 1.1723 1.3518 15.3% 0.5661 0.6129 8.3%
Cashflow from Operations 1,786.2 1,450.7 -18.8% 672.7 765.9 13.9%
CAPEX as % of Revenues 16.3% 17.4% 1.1pp 15.3% 12.0% -3.3pp
26
Net Debt 2,548.0 4,211.5 65.3% 4,211.5 4,607.4 9.4%
Note: Pro Forma EBITDA excluding Greek VRP impact and provisions related to other employee exit programs
-
OTEForward-Looking Statement
Any statements contained in this document that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of1995. All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that995. ll o wa d loo g state e ts a e subject to va ous s s a d u ce ta t es t atcould cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. The factors thatcould affect the Company's future financial results are discussed more fully in theCompany's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"),including the Company's Annual Report on Form 20-F for 2007 filed with the SEC onJune 24, 2008. OTE assumes no obligation to update information in this presentation.
Note: In this presentation the caption “EBITDA” is used to signify “Operating incomeNote: In this presentation, the caption EBITDA is used to signify Operating incomebefore depreciation and amortization” and the caption “EBITDA margin” to signify“Operating income before depreciation and amortization as a percentage of OperatingRevenues”
27
-
OTEQ&A
For more information please contact pOTE Investor Relations
Dimitris Tzelepis, Head of IRTel: +30 210 611 1574Fax: +30 210 611 1030or visit:www ote gr/english/investorrelations
28
www.ote.gr/english/investorrelations