08-10.45 - IORDANIS AIVAZIS - OTE.pptforums.capitallink.com/greece/2008/pres/aivazis.pdf ·...

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OTE OTE: Driving the Group Forward OTE: Driving the Group Forward 10 th Annual Capital Link Forum, New York, October 30, 2008

Transcript of 08-10.45 - IORDANIS AIVAZIS - OTE.pptforums.capitallink.com/greece/2008/pres/aivazis.pdf ·...

  • OTE

    OTE: Driving the Group ForwardOTE: Driving the Group Forward

    10th Annual Capital Link Forum,New York, October 30, 2008

  • OTE

    | OTE Group Overview| B i R i| Business Review| Financial Review| Appendix

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  • OTE

    | OTE Group Overview

  • OTEAt a Glance

    Group Structure(1)

    Fixed-line telephony

    Mobile telephony OTE SAGreeceOther operations

    Shareholder Structure (Sep 30, 2008)

    Deutsche

    Telekom

    22.0%

    Hellenic State

    28.0%

    Cosmote RomTelecomOTEestate

    Greece

    OTE GlobeGreece

    100% 54%

    100%

    100%

    Greek

    Institutional

    Investors

    10.1%

    International

    Institutional Oth

    Leading integrated telecommunications operator

    Listed on Athens (HTO GA), London (OTES LI) &

    GlobulBulgaria

    AMCAlbania

    CosmoteGreece

    RomTelecomRomania

    82% 100%

    Hellas SatGreece

    OTESat-MaritelGreece

    99%

    94%

    Investors

    31.9%

    Other

    8.0%

    ( ), ( )New York Stock Exchange (OTE)

    Market capitalization (Oct’08): around €5bn

    Group H1’08 Revenues: €3,128mn

    CosmofonFYROM

    70%100% CosmoteRomania

    30%

    Other

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    Group H1’08 EBITDA*: €1,157mn

    DPS (2007): €0.75

    * Excluding provisions related to employee exit programs (1) Major Companies of the Group

    GermanosS.E.Europe

    90%

  • Voice, Mobile and Data

    OTEBULGARIANumber 2

    Leader in Southeast Europe

    GREECEIncumbent/ Leader

    ROMANIAIncumbent/ Leader

    Number 2Mobile market share: 39%Customers (000): 3,945

    Bulgaria

    Romania

    Serbia

    Total Lines (000): 5,613ADSL Subscribers (000): 892

    Mobile market share: 40%Customers (000): 6,921

    Total Lines (000): 2,994ADSL Subscribers (000): 505

    ChallengerMobile market share: 19%

    FYROM

    Greece

    Albania

    ( ) ,Customers (000): 4,643

    Through Germanos, OTE

    Cyprus

    ALBANIAL d

    FYROMN b 2

    g ,Group operates the most efficient telecoms/technology retail network in Southeast Europe

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    LeaderMobile market share: 52%Customers (000): 1,280

    OTE also owns 20% of Telecom Serbia, the incumbent operator in Serbia

    Note: Data as of June 30, 2008

    Number 2Mobile market share: 31% Customers (000): 640

  • OTERecent Corporate Developments

    OTE appoints OTE

    OTE announces reduced ADSL tariffs and new access speed

    OTE issues €2 1bn in

    ADSL subscribers in Greece exceed 1mn

    OTE splits

    OTE announces new exit program for 200 employees

    OTE Estate receives HCMC license to operate a REIC

    OTE holds 100% of Cosmote shares and de-lists Cosmote

    Greek Parliament ADSL subscribers in

    2007

    OTE appoints new Cosmote CEO and CFO

    OTE announces sale of Infote directories for €300mn

    2008

    OTE issues €2.1bn in fixed coupon bonds to finance Cosmote minority buy-out

    OTE splits business & residential customer division

    Greek Parliament ratifies shareholder agreement with DT

    ADSL subscribers in Greece exceed 1.5mn

    2007

    Oct Nov Dec

    2008

    Jan Feb Mar MayApr Jun Jul OctSep

    OTE announces €2.8bn public offer for Cosmote minorities

    OTE completes Public Offer for Cosmote shares. Cosmote stake raised to 98.6%*

    Deutsche Telekom signs conditional agreement to acquire

  • OTENew Controlling Shareholder

    Greek State – Deutsche Telekom Agreement

    – Agreement ratified by Greek Parliament June 18, 2008; expected to be concluded before year-end

    – DT initially acquired from MIG 98.03mn OTE shares (19.99% stake) on May 15, 2008, then proceeded with p rchase agreement purchase agreement

    – DT acquired from the market 9.65mn OTE shares (1.97% stake) during Jun 25 - Jul17, 2008

    – Acquisition approved by European Commission on Oct 2, 2008

    – DT will acquire 14 87mn more OTE shares (3 03% stake) from the Greek State after remaining regulatory

    DT will end up with 122.54mn OTE shares (25% stake), Greek State will retain 122.54mn OTE shares (25% stake) & DT will control OTE according to the clauses of purchase agreement

    DT will acquire 14.87mn more OTE shares (3.03% stake) from the Greek State, after remaining regulatory approvals are received

    – As of Q4’08, the Greek State holds 1-year put option to sell a further 5.0% stake of OTE to DT

    – Additionally, 12 months following the execution of the 3% block trade & until 31 Dec 2011, Greek State holds another put option to sell 10.0% plus any portion of OTE shares it has not sold to DT pursuant to the first put

    ti

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    option

  • OTEOperational Overview

    Despite tougher domestic market conditions & continued regulatory restrictions, OTE has continued to perform strongly as a Group. This has been supported by:

    Control of market share erosion in domestic fixed-line Control of market share erosion in domestic fixed line

    Ongoing outstanding growth in mobile

    Successful execution of employee reduction programs in Romanian fixed-line, improving efficiency

    Going forward, OTE expects to improve its operational performance by focusing on key strategic areas:

    Implementation of integrated offerings in domestic fixed, broadband & mobile platformsImplementation of integrated offerings in domestic fixed, broadband & mobile platforms

    Steady broadband growth, both in Greece & Romania

    Continued mobile growth in most markets

    Further efficiency measures in domestic fixed-line & cost cutting initiatives by Cosmote & Germanos

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    Germanos

  • OTE

    | Business Review

  • Greek Fixed-line

    OTEKey Market Trends

    -0.7%Y oY : -1.1% -5.0% -7.7%

    OTE line loss (000)

    Continuous access line loss reflecting further growth of LLU due to:

    Aggressive promotional policies of

    46 67 241 306

    2005 2006 2007 H1 08

    – Aggressive promotional policies of alternative carriers, as well as ongoing migration from Carrier Pre-Selection to LLU

    – Mobile operators offering fixed-line products

    Broadband market (000)

    OTE ADSL* LLU

    products

    Total ADSL market reaches ca. 1.4 million subscribers at the end of Jun’08

    155 488

    892 825 725

    310500

    OTE broadband customers in H1’08 reach 892K, with OTE’s retail market share remaining slightly above 50%

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    2005 2006 2007 H1 08

    * OTE ADSL includes Retail & Wholesale

  • Greek Fixed-line

    OTEKey Operational Trends

    >50%

  • Mobile

    OTE

    Top line growth still driven by

    Operations OverviewCustomer base (mn)

    Further upside in mobile market

    Top-line growth still driven by subscriber numbers and usage growth Focus on targeted subscriber acquisition/retention initiatives

    Greece#1

    6.92

    4.64

    0.47

    5.22

    1.23

    3.27

    0.99 0.59

    6.27

    3.87

    1.20

    3.62

    1.28

    3.95

    0.64

    2006 2007 H1 08

    Strong performance in post-paid

    Romania#3

    Further upside in mobile market penetrationFocused on expanding post-paid subscriber base and increasing profitability

    Greec e Romania Bulgaria A lbania FY ROM

    Revenues (€ mn)

    1,6311,736

    2006 2007 H1 08

    Strong performance in post-paid customer segmentFocus on corporate customers

    Bulgaria#2

    A pre paid market with strong Alb i

    54151342

    44

    1,631

    62176412

    156 3091210

    117

    880

    Greec e Romania Bulgaria A lbania FY ROM

    Rapid roll out of 3G networkFYROM

    A pre-paid market with strong marginsConsolidate market position

    Albania#1 EBITDA margin (%)

    43.136.9

    60.3

    17.3

    41.7 39.262.0

    31.042.0

    40.8

    63.5

    27.9

    2006 2007 H1 08

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    OTE in the process of divesting FYROM#2

    Greec e Romania Bulgaria A lbania FY ROM

  • Mobile

    OTESelected Markets

    Greece Romania

    37% 37% 37% 37% 38% 38%39% 40%

    Estimated market share

    7%10% 11% 13%

    16% 18% 19%

    Estimated market share

    2005 2006 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 2007 Q1 08 Q2 08

    Blended monthly AMOU (minutes)

    2006 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08

    64Revenues EBITDA(€ mn)

    138153 153

    163 169 170177 183

    2005 2006 3M 07 6M 07 9M 07 2007 3M 08 6M 08

    44 27 36 4250 53 64

    (66)

    (11) (8) (9) (12) (8)

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    2006 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08

    Market share expansion

    Mix of 30:70 for post-/pre-paid at the end of H1’08

    Market share expansion

    Total post-paid subscribers around 800K

    – 414K post-paid net adds in 2007;

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    Steady usage increase boosting service revenue growth

    414K post paid net adds in 2007; 161K in H1’08

    Positive EBITDA achieved in Q2’08

  • RomTelecom

    OTEKey Trends

    Developing a more customer-oriented approach

    – Set up of 2 commercial units, dedicated to business and residential clients

    – Fixed-line value (flat rate) offers since Q2’07

    RomTelecom line loss (000)

    (65) (63)

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    (14) (27)

    – Lower monthly fees for ADSL subscriptions (up to 4Mbps) since Q2’07

    – Satellite TV - digital TV, under Dolce brand, launched in late 2006

    (122)

    (65)

    (234)

    (181)

    (135)

    (63)

    (133)

    Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08

    Reorganization to allow further headcount reduction by up to 2.5K

    – process initiated early ’08; provision taken in H1’08 (€32.6mn cost)

    2K jobs shed in H1’08

    RomTelecom Broadband/ Pay TV subscribers (000)

    – 2K jobs shed in H1 08

    Efforts to contain access line churn starting to pay off

    DSL subscriber take-up remains strong

    – 271K customer additions in 2007; 145K in H1’08 89

    505

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    528

    8

    360390

    ADSL Pay TV

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    Pay TV offering well accepted

    – 502K new customers within last 1.5 year

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    2005 2006 2007 H1 08

  • OTE

    | Financial Review

  • OTERevenue Trends

    Group RevenuesGeographical Revenue Mix (H1’08)*

    (€ mn)

    FYROM

    1%

    Albania

    2%B l i

    6,3205,891 7.3%

    2.2%3,060 3,128

    Bulgaria

    7%

    Romania

    17%

    2006 2007 H1 07 H1 08

    Greece

    73%

    OTE Cosmote RomTelecom OtherH1’08 Group revenues up 2.2%

    – Greek fixed-line revenue decrease by 3.5% mainly due to lower traffic

    – Continued strong growth across all mobile markets (8.1% total revenue increase), supported by market h i t b ib t k & hi h d it i t ti t t i G B l i

    16* Revenues presented gross of eliminations.Note: Comparable revenues exclude H1’07 Infote revenues, the Group’s Greek directories business sold in Q4’07

    share gains, strong subscriber take up & higher usage, despite interconnection rate cuts in Greece-Bulgaria & new competitors in FYROM, Albania & Romania

    Comparable Group Revenues up 3.2%

  • OTEEBITDA Trends

    2 167 2,241

    EBITDA EBITDA margin %

    4.3%

    (€ mn)

    EBITDA TrendsEBITDA Mix(1) (H1’08)

    15750 1,158

    2,167 2,241

    1,106 1,157

    45.2%100%

    3.4%

    36 8%428

    523 13.5%

    4 7%

    O T E C o smo t e R o mT eleco m O t her O T E G r o up

    37.0%

    36.8%

    36.1%

    428 35.5%

    37.0%

    4.7%

    2006 2007 H1 07 H1 08O T E C o smo t e R o mT eleco m O t her O T E G r o up

    H1’08 Group margin up 0.9pp, mainly due to strong mobile performance

    – 33.3% Greek fixed-line EBITDA margin

    Group EBITDA up 4.7% in H1’08; 5.5% on a comparable basis

    – Greek fixed-line EBITDA increase by 0.1% in

    17(1) Incl. €1.3mn intercompany eliminationsNote: EBITDA excluding Greek VRP impact and provisions related to other employee exit programs. Comparable EBITDA excludes H1’07 Infote EBITDA

    33.3% Greek fixed line EBITDA margin

    – Mobile EBITDA margin improvement in all major units

    Greek fixed line EBITDA increase by 0.1% in H1’08

    – Mobile EBITDA increase by 12.9% in H1’08

  • OTECash Flow Trends

    2,167 2,241 Maintaining strong cash flow generation, in

    conjunction with CAPEX decrease & lower cash

    Cash Flow (€ mn)

    1,1571,205 1,140

    782

    payments to pension funds

    Group Capital Expenditure in H1’08 down 19.8%

    from H1’07 levels

    – Reflecting lower investments in Romanian

    fixed-line & mobile operations

    (962)(1,101)

    (375)

    – CAPEX will be normalized during H2’08

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    EBITDA CAPEX FCF

    Notes: EBITDA excluding impact of Greek VRP and provisions related to other employee exit programs. FCF defined as EBITDA less CAPEX

    2006 2007 H1 08

  • Management Consistency in

    OTE

    l

    Delivering Commitments

    ArmenTel sold in Nov 2006 for €349mnArmenTel sale Completed

    OTE successfully completes VRP (5.4K employees) in Oct 2006 Completed Operational efficiency

    OTEGlobe (international wholesale telephony) de-consolidation from OTE SA in 2007

    OTEGlobe de-consolidation

    Infote (directory enquiries) sold in Dec 2007 for €300mnInfote sale Completed

    Completed

    OTE issues €2.1bn in fixed coupon bonds to finance Cosmote minority buy-out in Feb 2008

    Cosmote bridge refinancing

    Completed

    Absorption of Otenet (domestic ISP) within OTE SA legally completed Jun 2008

    Otenet merger Completed

    OTE reaches 100% in Cosmote in Apr 2008Cosmote buyout Completed

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    New exit program for more than 600 employees X PendingOperational efficiency

  • OTEStrategic Guidelines Going Forward

    Proceed with the integration of the Group, which after the sale of non core assets & the acquisition of Cosmote minorities, has the right size & shape

    Capitalize on the strengths of the new controlling shareholder, which will bring significant advantages on managerial, financial, technological & strategic level

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  • OTE

    | Appendix

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  • G FTTH I i i iOTE

    Government FTTH Initiative

    Government FTTH Initiative:– Open passive optical network– 2mn homes & enterprises in major cities– “Open access”, point-to-point network model – At least 100 Mbps/user– Network deployment within 7 years

    Description

    1st tier: Infrastructure Provider; provides fiber (passive network) 2nd tier: Communication Provider; provides wholesale access (active network) 3rd tier: Service Providers; provides retail service

    3-tier service model

    Project implemented through Public & Private Sector Ventures, divided into 3 different geographical regionsDuration: 30 years

    Business modely

    Indicative Budget: €2.1bn Greek state financing ca.1/3 of total; possibility for preferential lending terms by European Investment Bank

    End 2008:– Submission of Project Plan to E.U.– Public consultation

    Project plan

    H1 2009:– Approval by Inter-Ministerial Committee– Selection of consultantH2 2009:– Call for Tenders

    Yet to be clarifiedRegulatory

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    Yet to be clarifiedRegulatory treatment

  • OTEMobile Termination Rates

    Romania: regulatory framework not yet fully implemented Greece: regulatory framework implemented

    Jan 2007 11.74Jun 2007 10.67Feb 2008 9.89Jan 2009 7 89 Current 8.40Jan 2009 7.89Jan 2010 6.24Jan 2011 4.95

    Albania: regulator influenced by EU policiesBulgaria: regulatory framework not yet fully implemented

    Feb 2008 17.60Jul 2008 16.10 Current 9 80Jan 2009 14.40Jul 2009 12.00

    Current 9.80

    23Note: MTR in eurocents per minute on Cosmote’s network

  • OTEOTE Group Debt

    Debt maturity profile as of 30 June 2008 (€ mn)

    639

    2,187

    453

    1,254602

    9026333

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    €6.5bn EMTN program

    2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-20

    Moody’sp g

    Fixed/floating ratio 82/18

    Average cost of debt around 5% post-refinancing

    H1’08 Net Debt of €4.6bn in line with current rating

    Moody s

    – Baa2, Stable outlook

    S&P’s

    – BBB+, Negative outlook

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    and financial strength (2x EBITDA)

    Note: Major OTE Group liabilities presented

    OTE also maintains committed lines of €350mn

    Moody’s as of May 19, 2008

    S&P’s as of November 12, 2007

    , g

  • OTEMacroeconomic Environment

    RomaniaGreece

    GDP growth 3.5%, expected to slow down CPI 4.2%, decreasing

    GDP growth 6.5%, expected to slow downCPI 8.0%

    X Inflationary & deficit concerns

    Customer defaults are not increasingMobile postpaid is not migrating to prepaidDSL migration to higher speeds is not slowing down

    X Inflationary & deficit concernsHigh Foreign Direct Investment levels

    Mobile postpaid growth remains strongBroadband growth uninterrupted

    AlbaniaBulgaria

    GDP growth 5.8%, expected to slow downCPI 8.0%

    GDP growth 6.0%, expected flattishCPI 4.2%, decreasing

    X Inflationary & deficit concerns

    Growing post-paid customer segment Steady mobile usage increase Steady mobile usage increase

    25Macroeconomic data source: Bank of Greece, Oct 08. All GDP & CPI data as of 2008E

  • OTEOTE Group Financial Highlights

    IFRS(€ mn)

    2006 2007 % Diff H1’07 H1’08 % Diff

    Revenues 5,891.3 6,319.8 7.3% 3,059.9 3,128.0 2.2%

    Operating Income 1,088.3 1,046.9 -3.8% 513.1 527.8 2.9%

    Pro Forma EBITDA 2,167.0 2,240.8 3.4% 1,106.0 1,157.4 4.7%

    Pro Forma EBITDA margin 36 8% 35 5% -1 3pp 36 1% 37 0 0 9ppPro Forma EBITDA margin 36.8% 35.5% 1.3pp 36.1% 37.0 0.9pp

    Net Income 574.6 662.6 15.3% 277.5 300.4 8.3%

    Basic EPS (€/share) 1.1723 1.3518 15.3% 0.5661 0.6129 8.3%

    Cashflow from Operations 1,786.2 1,450.7 -18.8% 672.7 765.9 13.9%

    CAPEX as % of Revenues 16.3% 17.4% 1.1pp 15.3% 12.0% -3.3pp

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    Net Debt 2,548.0 4,211.5 65.3% 4,211.5 4,607.4 9.4%

    Note: Pro Forma EBITDA excluding Greek VRP impact and provisions related to other employee exit programs

  • OTEForward-Looking Statement

    Any statements contained in this document that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements as defined in the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of1995. All forward-looking statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties that995. ll o wa d loo g state e ts a e subject to va ous s s a d u ce ta t es t atcould cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. The factors thatcould affect the Company's future financial results are discussed more fully in theCompany's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"),including the Company's Annual Report on Form 20-F for 2007 filed with the SEC onJune 24, 2008. OTE assumes no obligation to update information in this presentation.

    Note: In this presentation the caption “EBITDA” is used to signify “Operating incomeNote: In this presentation, the caption EBITDA is used to signify Operating incomebefore depreciation and amortization” and the caption “EBITDA margin” to signify“Operating income before depreciation and amortization as a percentage of OperatingRevenues”

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  • OTEQ&A

    For more information please contact pOTE Investor Relations

    Dimitris Tzelepis, Head of IRTel: +30 210 611 1574Fax: +30 210 611 1030or visit:www ote gr/english/investorrelations

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    www.ote.gr/english/investorrelations