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Transcript Mi nary Analyst Cal2005 0930re U S m o p ad.ustmenk in raqPon o m on me rew m, PORTIONS OFF THE RECORDOSD PJOc Afla rs Room 2E556 Tne PentagonHost LTC Dan e Badagla. JOnt Cne fs PJO c AffairsTranscriber: MurphyDO NOT DISTRIBUTEFolks tnat I n nk are une d n this morn ng pretty mLcn me normal 1st ofs~soecisAn0 aaa n we o be haoov at anv oo int nere when we ve finisned to take VOJrquestions, and vie'll take as long 'aiw e need to.

What I wou ld like to do is split the time this morning to the extent that we can. Iwou ld like to pitchto you all for about 15 minutes, both the essence of wh afs taking place and then som e points hatIwould have for you that i hink would help you with your analysis, and then use the est of thetime to go ahead and answer your questionsFirs t of all, i don 't think it's a surprise o you a t this po int with the secretary having announced andwith some articles having appeared as early as a weekago . but certainly in the papers n thismorning that the 2d Brigade, ls'rmored Division, out of Schweinfurt, Germany, (note,DoDrelease says BaumhokJer) will be propositioned on its gear in Kuwait, serv ing as a call-forwardforce.Tne Army has own ousy preposmonmg he eq~ipment f an armorea brgaoe anamgo-s 10whatwe Lsed to have tnere l guess oefore OlF Tnat eqdipment is general y arriving an0 I be inolace this momn and that swnat the 2d of the 1 "Armored s allma in on tnev w I oe aaain nthis call-forwardstatus or an undetermined period of time, based on soma re&mmendations thatare going to be com ing from the secretary from the commander of CENTCOM.Okay, secondly - and more n a moment about this call-forward status. Secondly, the 1" Brigadeof the IaIn fan try Division, out of Fort Riley. Kan., was notified, oh, mid-November or so that theywould be in delayed status pend ing heir deployment o Iraq. They were told to enjoy Christmasand their status wou ld be provided to them shortly after Christmasand after the first of the NewYear.They were scheduled o arrive in Iraq- actua lly in Kuwait - on 13December with the lates tarrival date, and then to be in Iraq and ready to transfer authority on the 12"of January.Their status is being updated by virtue o f the o rders the secretary has signed, and they will not bedep loyed o Iraq as a brigade. Again, that's one o f the points that Iwant to raise with you, in thepoints that I want to make.And let meoe t into those points now There are four of them essentially The llrst dealswith the1"of the 1 Infantry As Isaid, they will not begoing into thea ter as a brigade, but elements ofthe brigade will be deDlovlna to Ira0- and or as it turns out this morning, perhaps, a smallnumb& into the ~ o r n ' o f ~ f r i c a . 'What's intenoed for the ongaoe an0 tnis s base0 "pan Army aec sions and who's nest avan ablen o s est trainee (up on step?) and that Type of tn ng. is that the brigadem Iprou de seven ore gn l security companies thatm Iperform set-nty roles - convoy escorts hose type things- inand around Iraq as a part of their number.The brigade is also tasked with providinga number, i don't know how many, frankly, at this point,but a number of the ransition eam s that will work with Iraq i forces and continue theirmodernization and professionalism efforts,and also the brigade headquarters has been tasked

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with the training of Army transition teams, and perhaps even other Service transition teams,depending upon their makeupBut those are the three functions that the brigade will be performing now over the next year or so,again, with certainly a portion of them going into IraqNow wo- a a00 tna: t s st I a net p ,s in terms of tne total n-mbers OKay? BecaJse tney aregong r as sec-irry compan es sorneood; eee s not gong. 0day7 So"is sn t a sne game.cena n v n mat coitexl t s -st tnat tnese oeoole are aoa n reao $ ava a0 e !nev re morepreparid than some of the other companies rom the other units that might be tagged a later pointin timeLet me talk to you some about the math, okay? Simplicity says that until about August, and for theseve'a months eac ng .p :3 that we were a0Od 138% s wnat we ca I tne case ne to'ce YO3 a.are we aware oeca-se /OL racGea t that Ae sbnea to ~ m pP a1 tna' oo nt frs' for me m d-Octooer refereno-m and lo owrq tnat, of co-rse t i e m o-Decemoer e ect on an0 pea

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The last thing is that I would emphasize s that this all is coming about as a result of Iraqiprogress Imean, right now, the numbersareat216,OOO rained andequipped, 120-plus Iraqlarmv and Dolice battalions n the fioht 44 of those own around as we soeak here this momma;thatnumber is going up to 50 or soby the end of ~anu &, Seven bnga'des hat are providing-leadership roles right now in that; two division headquarters: hat number of brigade headquarterswill go up to 11 or so by the end of January. So it's a northeast rendline in terms of the Iraqis.both coming on line and assuming control of ground and battle space as they are able to doAnd again, that's how General Casey, General Vines, General Abizaid, the secretary and thechairman are all able to arrive at the decision that has now been madeIwould emphasize to you that it's done in a military chain of command that goes all the way to thepresident; t is not based on political events And that's all as a military man Isuppose I need tosay about thatQuay lnal o on t take a fu 15 m ni-tes 0i.t tnal -st gives ,s more :me fo' q-estons Denaopy !o f e a arytn i g nat \OL g>-ysnaveQ This is Jeff McCausland Two quick questions On the ls'f the lst , ou said that they aregoing to be training the transition teams Will they be doing thatback at Rky, the internationaltraining center, Kuwait, Iraq, where will that occur?And on the 1 AD brigade, when will theyactually close in Kuwait with troops and equipment, and then lastly, any comments about thefuture if things go well at the end of spring?

/Ve frsl of a n termsof meIran ng yod k i o ~ i 6 ana nave!o confm1 s or to.. 3-1 In nx 1s gong totane pace a1 hope station n R e, Tnat *ow 0 cena n ) m t

In terms of the 2d of the 1 AD, they're there. They had an LAD (latest arrival date) In Kuwait lateNovember Thev made that Thev have been essentiallv there doing traininq, doing commanders'reconna ssance some of me.r e&ersrw l nmi< went "10 Iraq ,m LO expe ite tneprocess f mey*ere cal eo fowaro Tney nade essent ally sausfeo a of noswnat ME ca RSO& req- cementslnal a O A mem no* 10 oep 0) q~w , f the event sno- 0 necess tale InatIn terms of what will happen down rangeJeff, Imean, it just depends. This has always beensituation based, and we are going to have to read the situation as it develops Right now there'ssome pretty positive trend lines out there compared to what we saw during the referendumInterms of casualties, n terms of numbers of attacks, in terms of VBIEDs, suicide VBIEDs, thosetypes of things If those things continue in a positive fashion, and Iraqis continue to show that theycan manage it. then I think there's probably good news to follow. But that will be dependent uponGeneral Casey's assessment when those things pop on to the calendarQ. Thank you,Q Hey General, Jed Babbm We heard from General Casey, and I guess more recently rom thesecretary, that we're trying to balance things between providing the Iraqis with the support theyneed and not creating in them a dependency on us to do all of those things, I understand heconcept Give us a couple of points- ou know. how do you make the udgment? What do youbalance one against the other in terms of trying to not create that dependency?

Yeah, Je.d I think that's a good quesbon And ifs a finesse question in a sort ofway, because it just depends on what you're dealing with at the time I mean, clearly, ust like Inour mllitarv, some lraai units are better than others But as the" are able to steo UD,we are Drettvmuch requiring hat they do so

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I can tell you that in the reports this morning, that there's the first what they are calling Iraqibrigade-level sweep that's taken place out in the Euphrates River Valley There's a Marine nflecompany out of RCT-2 that is there as observers But these guys conceived of it, planned it andexecute2 all on their own So that's the tvoe of arowth that we see and that wewant toencourage And I think there's a belief on the part of ou r military and certainly our leadership hat.yo- anort some of tnese -n is 6 . oe rencent 10 step fo'wara -n ess yo- aoso -1e y wmpe them10 00 so art mats OJ 'espons o ty to botn train t i e raqis as oo one c o n a n ne necessaryw-nter ns..rgenc{ as ,0a two 021 o maxe s ~ r ehat mat f (st 00 s -naerstooo ana exec-:ea assoon as we can make it happenQ Great, thanksC? This is Jeff McCausland again One other question -o n the transition teams- what's in thefuture? Is that going to be Army-Marme, or is that going to besolely Army7

-eft act-a y 1s ai Services Tne g-ys wno are 021 dong :ne cose cornoat x naof stiff s c ear y Army m d Mar ne Butwnat weve seen s the d reelon ana s-oseq-en1 y me1 nones3 on tne n a i cf tne Nan and the A r Force to sreo ,.o we r e tnev can So some ofthese-transition teems are base -facilities (base facilities7itrainina teems some of them arelogistics training teams So where it'splausible that a transition team can work to do the type ofthings that we find resident in the Air Forceor the Navy, again, those Servicesare stepping upbig time to help relieve some of the stresson the two ground ServicesBut clearly, where there is a ground combat role, and mat extends out to the border transitionteams - the special police and the police transition teams -- youare going to find mostof thoseareArmy and Marine

Q How are we coming, particularly with the MEF, of impressing upon the Sunms that the U San0 tne Coa ton forces are there last great nope that ':hey con1n.e me nsdgency tnen (0 -Know 1me * "st force - s 10 1-m it over me Kurds aod me Sn 'a to so ,e I or mern ana AC canne P tnem more mar anyoooy M i n red s ng the constiti-I on econom c resources pos ions nmecao net Are he man ng progress with them?

Tom, I hink so Isee some really positive signs, without sounding overlyoptimistic. One is just the turnout of the Sunni vote I hink they realize that they hosed (71 it lasttime, and they are not willing to see that occur that way this time around So that's I think apositive signSeconoly }Q mow Me re act-a y seeing some red on re2 nand are-na Ranao an0 01 onme .vestern ooroer Ine - some ol me 0.30 g q s nade rea I\ naa Iwin me AQ fo KS n Ramaoare mere are fonts a< r c oace tnere mere are threats here s mum oat on - on m t r s desreally But it's th'e old thing the enemy of my enemy is my friend And although these, you know,FRE (former regime elements?) and former Saddamists aren't going to really befriend us inwaysthat we are seeing out west, we still see that as a positive thing, and I hink a realizationon thepart of those folks, that, you know, me final solution here is going to be political, not kineticTne omer in ng s mat 0-1 on tne o o w r one me ooraer POSTSare now n place ara menneo .P.so we tn ni

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between sheiks out there that weren't necessarily avorable o the Marines n the west that arenow by necessity caused o work somewhat in sync.Q:And have som e of them continuedwith the cease fire they put in during the election?

You know, I n nk we re probao ly certainly the-were gong tostart to see tne n i-moers of attacks go up som e Tnere Aras never rea y a cease fire i think thatwas De m os a llrte misunderstood th nk there oronablv were som e dscissions temna Dlace.but those aren't new. Imean, I had those when I as out there, and these guys can never quitecome across with the goods. We said, hey, show us your power by cutting off he attacks andwe'll start to believe that you speak for large num bers of people.Tney were never q ~ i t e0.e to do LhaL And a tnougn I n nk mere have once aga n beeno i s c ~ s ~ i o n shis time. notning mat approacneo a cease fr e and atacks still d o o a r so -although ney were sonaw nat dimimsned And these people did help JS n secmng me po ingsitesSo, Idon't know that there's a one-for-one return on the effort, certainly one tha t we'll continue tosee as we approach he new yearQ :Thank you0 Genera Bob Mag nn s On the Horn of Africa yod indicate0 in your expanaton of b e irstpa nt mat me 1" of tne 1" of course isn t go ng over n us entirety but eem enis m gn tgo to tneHom of Afrca Are we growing or s In s a replacemen teffort n tfiaiarea?

Boo I oe hone stwtn yo- Idon1 know the answer totn at The information Igave /ou s about 30 minutes old When Istepped n the Army nad actual y rea-ced me n-rncerof sea-nty companes mat were going to oe neadeo into lrwa and n d a e a in mat nurnoerwasone for the Horn of AfricaI I te I YOJ thai we are trying not to grow .t that's the thrust I t s an economy of force mission,an0 any request for forces mat com e in from tnere are very closely scrut nuea so Iam going tonave to d a more nto what mev see is th s reauirement Ido know tneres s e w N effort tnerethat Is existent n Dmbouh at the base w e t h e r o r not these are guvs that are lust scheduled to.go in and rota te them out, Ican't say for sure.We are not providing a lot of security elsewhere with regard to convoys and that type of thing. So.Iwould say 60-40 that they're replacement, but I can't say that with 100percent assurityQ' Thank you.Q General, Tim Eads.Coutd you give us a little background on the timing of this announcement?I mean, is it basedalmost exclusively on the capab ility of the Iraqi forces to s tep in, is theresomething else in p lay - you know- he election was less than a weekago. Some may think it'sstrange that we are announcing troop withdrawals before the government has stood up.w ean Tim all mose things certainly want mto consderaton I can te l yod tnatare s sen isc ~s sio n n in s now for some tme, out tnat toe election hangingOLIhere was ama or consioeration n terms of me annomcemen t YOJ know we neeoeo to see-weweregetting reports, of course, that the bad guys were go ing to try to disrupt and eradica te, you know,the success of the elec tion as much as they could. That obviously didn 't happen. I mean. you hada huge turnout and theability of the Iraqi forces to defend t was just excellent.So t abeieved m at we wo dd wad and see how a Imat pannea o n before mere were any rea.annoi-ncemenis of me dec swn. an0 mat's esseni al y what you see nere Now we rea ize that if

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you look at what happened recently with this interim government that it took, some would argue,90 days or more to stand up. We're hoping that doesn't happen this time; time will certainly tell.And I hink there's a lotof backroom discussion, a lot of tea that's going to be drank before thisone really is settled out. But I think people would say thatwe ail lost momentum when they took,you know, so b g o put it together. That's a lesson learned andwe just hope it's applied as theybnng this one around,Q' Thank you.Q' General,this is Jeff McCausland. I'm sorry. One more question. While I fully am more thanhappy to use this phrasecall forward force as opposed to operational reserve, and I am sure allmy colleagues will be happy to do that as well, could you kindof tell us why you want to do it thatway? I mean. all of us are comfortable with operational reserve, makes sense in terms of militaryterms (crosstalk).BEGINOFF THERECORD

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