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Demantra Demand Management andJD Edwards World: Benefits of a

"World"-Class Forecasting ToolMargie Bell Director, Oracle Demantra Product ManagementKevin Klimek, Oracle JD Edwards Senior Product Strategy Manager

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Agenda

Why is demand driven planning important?

Overview of Oracle Demantra Demand Management

Integration: JD Edwards World and Oracle DemantraDemand Management

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Why is Demand DrivenPlanning Important?

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Multiple,non-integrated

systems

Manual processesMultiple data sources

FinancialPlanning

New ProductPlanning

SalesQuotas

ProductionPlanning

Measurementand Reporting

MarketingForecasting

Your Company

Low forecast accuracyDepartmental orientation to demand forecastingMisalignment between metrics and objectivesNot tied to Sales and Operations Planning process

?

Traditional Approach DisconnectedHigh latency, limited collaboration, no consensus forecasting

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Eliminate decision making latency by focusingon excellence in demand visibility

Sense demand more frequently and closer to the point of consumption

Replace spreadsheets with one number demand management -Collaborate with all constituents

Improve your forecast accuracy Use advanced analytics and statistics

Shape demand Promotion excellence and decomposition

Leverage granular demand signals (customer, channel, store, shelf)

Identify and simulate cross selling opportunities

Evolve to real-time S&OP Profitable demand response

Identify supply side opportunities

Define and monitor customer based metrics

Get real time visibility to sales tactics (price breaks, promotions, deals)

Better ApproachReal-time demand sensing and collaborative consensus forecasting

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Demand Driven leaders have:

15% less inventory

17% stronger order fulfillment

35% shorter cash-to-cash cycletimes

Which translates to:

60% better profit margins 65% better EPS

2-3x the ROA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Strong Weak

Perfect Order Inventory

Cash-to-Cash SCM Costs

Source: AMR Benchmark Analytix

Improved Demand Managementis the first important step !

Better Approach Significant Benefits

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How

Delivers

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Oracle Value Chain Planning SolutionComplete, best-in-class e-business planning process platform

Demand SignalManagement

DemandManagement

Collaboration andVendor Managed

Inventory

PlantScheduling and

Monitoring

OrderPromising

ServiceParts

Planning

Trade PromotionManagement

Supply and DistributionPlanning

RiskManagement

Sales andOperationsPlanning

PerformanceManagement

Single source of truth Integrated with ERP SOA enabled

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Oracle Demantra Demand Management

Proactive planning Capture demand more frequently, closer to the point of consumption

Capture demand and forecast at more granular level (store, shelf,attributes, product characteristics)

Achieve consensus demand number more quickly by involving allconstituents at the same time, including customers

Quickly identify and react to demand changes and exceptions

Improve forecast accuracy Leverage advanced statistics for more accurate demand number

Use any combination of quantitative or qualitative data to establish yourbase line forecast

High precision statistical forecasting, no statistical background required Superior Bayesian-Markov forecast analytics

Forecast based on attributes and characteristics

Leverage Advanced Forecast Modeling for promotion lift decompositionand causal analysis

Shape demand for profitability Plan new product introductions

Plan promotions and sales incentives

Identify cross selling opportunities

Evolve to real-time S&OP Profitably balance supply, demand, and budgets

Align strategic and tactical plans

Role based process, proactively managed via workflow

Shipments

Marketing

forecast

Order

history

CHANNEL DATA

Customer

sales

CollaborationWorkbench

Demand Hub and Seeded Worksheets

Real-time demand sensing and collaborative consensus forecasting

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Proactive Planning

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Improve Demand Visibility

PartnerInputs:

XML,EDI orManual

PartnerForecastMetrics

Improve demand visibility withcustomer collaboration

Tailor worksheets to specificcustomer needs

Worksheet can be attached to atask

Direct alerts via application or email

Automate internal notification oncustomer input

Field-level security tied to customeraccess privileges

Collaborate with customers and measure impacts

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Automate Key Steps in Process

Adapt quickly to new demandsignals

Incremental forecasting

Task and exception driven userdashboards

Queue for workflow and manually generated tasks Alerts and actions can be triggered by people, the

systems, or the analytic engines

Automated escalation ensuresresponse

Tailor planning processes toresemble unique companybusiness requirements

Easy-to-use drag and drop interface User defined performance indicators

Quickly identify and react to demand changes and exceptions

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Improve Demand Planner Productivity

Task oriented dashboards

Excel like worksheets Context sensitive

User configurable workspaces

Copy and paste multiple cells and rows

Create new worksheets based on 20 seeded ones (Historical forecastperformance, Forecast accuracy, Top and bottom 5 customers year todate, Revenue analysis, and more)

Shared and private worksheets

View in any unit or currency

View data at multiple levels in hierarchy of choice

Simultaneous update and view multiple worksheetsand perform side-by-side comparisons

Color coding based on exceptions Flexible formulaic expressions

Online notes with audit trail

Off-line mode with automatic sync and MS Excel

integration

Configurable user interface replaces need for individual spreadsheets while

ensuring enterprise database access and security

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Task Oriented Dashboards

Personalizedworksheets

Real-time alerts,exceptions and

workflowmessages

Online status ofAnalystscollaborationgroup

Open anyworksheet filteredby a ProductCategory

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Integrated,configurable graphs

Color coded cellsto focus plannersattention on key

issues

Work on multipleworksheets atvarious levels atthe same time

Excel Like Worksheets

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Unlimited hierarchies to model allplanning data:

Products and product families

Plants and distribution networks

Customer ship-locations including DCs and stores Sales territories and customer account relationships

Promotion and marketing programs

Attributes and characteristics

New levels can be added on the fly

Edit and view data at multiple levels inhierarchy of choice

Use lower level data for higher level forecasting

Use higher level data for lower level forecasting

Intelligent data management ensuresincomplete data is detected

Planning automatically done at next level when statisticallyrelevant data is not available

Marketing

Sales Rep

Support planning the way your business works

Flexible Hierarchies

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Online Notes and AuditTrail with digital signature

Comprehensive Audit TrailAccountability throughout the entire organization

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Improve your ForecastAccuracy

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Improve Forecast Accuracy

Mixed models used in same time series adjustfor multiple causal factors including seasonality,market trends, and promotions

Each model contributes different forecastcharacteristic to the overall model

Automatic model selection provides improvedaccuracy of best fit approaches

One forecast based on multiple models instead of only

using best-fit model Self-tuning engine

Forecast trees automatically find level withstatistically relevant data

Forecasts stored at lowest level

Proportion rules applied when necessary

Can incorporate external information such asweather, market drivers, forward indicators, andcompetitive data

Causal

Analysis

OutlierDetection

PromotionEvents

Seasonality

Cyclical Patterns

Trend

Historicaldata

BayesianEstimator

Forecast

Multiplecausalfactors

Combinedmodel

BayesianOptimizer

Leverage Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling option

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MAPE Mean Absolute

Percent Error

Improve Forecast Accuracy

MPE - Forecast Bias WMAPE Weighted MAPE

by revenue, cost, and so on

Built-in accuracy metrics

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Shape Demand forProfitability

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Shape Demand for Profitability

New products present forecasting challenges

Limited or no demand history for a given item

May combine characteristics of several previous products

Price points, changing market conditions may be different Product demand changes over product life cycle

Accurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data

??

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Shape Demand for Profitability

Derive forecast fornew product andadjust forecast basedon actual demand

Automaticallydetect outliers

View demand ofcomparable productsbased on characteristics

Accurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data

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Shape Demand for Profitability

What incremental volume will result from amarketing program?

How will it impact the sales of other products?

How does a marketing program at a brand orproduct family level impact a specific item?

What were the indirect effects such ascannibalization and consumer stockpiling?

What is the ROI on my marketing and tradespending?

What is the predicted impact of future activity?

How does a promotion impact shipments and DC

replenishments?

Cannibalization

Pre- and p ost-effects

Comp etitive switchingCatego ry growth

Baseline

Actual

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Period 1 Period 6 Period 11

Cases

P ast Future

Leverage Advanced Forecasting and Modeling to understand the real impact

of promotions and sales incentives

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Shape Demand for Profitability

Baseline versus incremental volume Provides decomposition of incremental volume

from advertising, promotions, or sales incentives

Granular lift analytics Incremental volume lift coefficients maintained at

lowest level

Localized promotion analysis Allows shipments/replenishments to be adjusted

by ship-to location

Cross product and customer effects Determines cross-product cannibalization impact Adjusts forecasts for product and customer

cannibalization

Baseline

Incremental

Competitiveswitching

Long term

growth

Pre and Postpromotion

effect

Cross product

cannibalization

Typical DemantraAFDM

Baseline

Leverage Advanced Forecasting and Modeling to understand the real impact

of promotions and sales incentives

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Evolve to Real Time

Sales & Operations Planning

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Evolve to Real-Time S&OP

Customers

Suppliers

Develop predictable business plans

Shape demand to meet financial goals

Align supply chain to support plan

Monitor performance to plan

Shape demand to close gaps

Drive decisions into ERP

Finance

Supply Chain Sales

Marketing

Profitably balance supply, demand, and budgets

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Evolve to Real-Time S&OP

Seeded templates for S&OPcollaboration

Seeded consensus planning worksheets

Easily tailored to your business

Configurable and extensible Extensible hierarchies and dimensions

Collaborate at any level

User-defined reports and exceptions

Manage by exception instantly Exceptions and visual cues easily point to important

issues immediately

Document all assumptions with a complete audit trail ofdecisions taken

Leverage POS data to alert planners to exceptions realtime (versus batch month by month)

Integrated Seeded data streams for data commonly used in the

process

Profitably balance supply, demand, and budgets

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Architecture

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State-of-the-art and Scalable Architecture

Scalable Handle millions of combination

Web-based user interfacepersonalization

Dynamically configure

Drag-and-drop

Tailor workflow processes to uniquecompany requirements

Demand Management adapts to your businessprocess

Create alerts and exception rules

Customize reports on-the-fly

Dynamic open link to MS Excel

Work in disconnected modeEnte

rpriseTe

chnology

Stack

SOAP

/XML/H

TML/HT

TP(S)

J2EESer

ver

RDB

MS

Enterpris

eTechno

logyStac

k

SOAP

/XML/H

TML/HT

TP(S)

J2EESer

ver

RDB

MS

Demantra

Infrastructure

User

/RoleSe

curitySe

rvices

Adm

inistratio

n&Con

figuration

Bus

inessOb

jectServ

icesDemantra

Infrastructure

User

/RoleSe

curitySe

rvices

Adm

inistratio

n&Con

figuration

Bus

inessOb

jectServ

ices

DataInte

grationS

ervices

UnifiedD

emandD

ataRepos

itory

BusinessApplicationLanguage

OLAP

Optimiz-

ation

Business

Logic

GUI

Workflow

&

Exception

s

Predictiv

e

Modeling

DataInte

grationS

ervices

UnifiedD

emandD

ataRepos

itory

BusinessApplicationLanguage

OLAP

Optimiz-

ation

Business

Logic

GUI

Workflow

&

Exception

s

Predictiv

e

Modeling

http://wendys.com/

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Copyright 2008, Oracle. All rights reserved.1 - 35

DemandManagement

Predictive Trade Planning

Strategic Network

Optimization

Collaborative

Planning

Advanced Supply

Chain Planning

Inventory

Optimization

Demand Signal

Repository

Advanced Planning

Command Center

Real-Time

S&OP

E1 World

Global Order

Promising

Production

Scheduling

Sales CG PIP

Financial Planning

PLM

SCM & Financials

VALUE CHAIN PLANNING

Manufacturing

Operations Center

Service

Parts Planning

SCM

Demantra Integration Overview

Advanced Forecasting

& Demand Modeling

Trade Promotion Optimization

Deduction and Settlement Mgmt

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JD Edwards World

and

Demantra Demand Management

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JD Edwards World to Demantra IntegrationBusiness Challenge

The Issue:

Better Forecast Accuracy in a Demand Driven, Consensus Based,

Collaborative Planning Environment

The Solution:

Use a Single, Precise Forecast from Demantra Demand Managementto Drive the JD Edwards World MRP/DRP Process

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JD Edwards World to Demantra IntegrationFunctional Overview

ItemsCustomers

Sales History

Forecast

Demand Management

Advanced Forecasting

Manufacturing Management

Order ManagementInventory Management

JD EdwardsWorld

Demantra DemandManagement

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Download from JD Edwards World and Upload to Demantra:

Item, Facility (B/P), Customer information

Open Sales Orders/Sales History

Notifications (errors, warnings, success) available via e-mail and throughBatch Status Inquiry program

Download Forecast from Demantra and Upload to JD EdwardsWorld:

Forecast to JDE World

Notifications (errors, warnings, success) available via e-mail and throughBatch Status Inquiry program

JD Edwards World to Demantra IntegrationFunctional Overview

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JD Edwards World to Demantra IntegrationUser Notification of Exceptions

Seeded workflow notifications can be modified byselecting the appropriate group for notification

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JD Edwards World/Demantra IntegrationFunctional Overview

Menu G34A2 Contains allprograms/operations for theintegration to Demantra DemandManagement

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Outbound ProcessorFunctional Overview

FXXXXFXXXX F34AXXXXFF34AXXXXFF34AXXXXF34AXXXX

XXXX.txtXXXX.txt

FTP

JD Edwards World

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Outbound Processor P34AOBFunctional Overview

P34A120

F34A4211

P34A110

F34A4001P34A160

F34A0301P34A150

F34A4102P34A140

F34A4101P34A130Item/Unit of Measure

F4101, F41002/3

Sales History

F42119

Sales

F4211

Facility

F41001, F0006

Customer

F0301, F0101

Item/Branch

F4102

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Inbound ProcessorFunctional Overview

F3460F3460 F34A3460FF34A3460FF34A3460F34A3460

Forecast.txtForecast.txt

FTP

JD Edwards World

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Inbound Flat File to Forecast

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For More Information

OR

Oracle Demantra Demand Management

OR

JD Edwards World Home Page

Click on:

JD Edwards World A9.1 Integration toDemantra Demand Management

Functional Overview

Follow Sign on Instructions and Click onJD Edwards World: Migration / Integration link

http://www.oracle.com/applications/scm/demantra/demand-management.htmlhttp://www.oracle.com/applications/jdedwards-world.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://www.oracle.com/applications/jdedwards-world.htmlhttp://www.oracle.com/applications/scm/demantra/demand-management.html

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The preceding is intended to outline our generalproduct direction. It is intended for information

purposes only, and may not be incorporated into anycontract. It is not a commitment to deliver anymaterial, code, or functionality, and should not be

relied upon in making purchasing decisions.The development, release, and timing of anyfeatures or functionality described for Oraclesproducts remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.

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