Global Focus on Knowledge Lecture Series

Information Changes the World #4

Why Information Technology Now ？the 3rd day

Hiroshi Harashima

Information Foundation

Information Society Information Machinery

Word

ComputerPrinting

Network

Multimedia

Personal Computer

Communication

Internet

DatabaseSimulation

Virtual RealitySearch Engine Mobile

Ubiquitous

Artificial Inteligence

Life

BrainCyborg

Community

Medical System

Net Society

Information Explosione-administration

Electric Money

Information Economics

Globalization

Environment

Industry

Robot

Body Expression

Physicality

Contents

Media Art Entertainment

Movie MusicNew Art

“Otaku” Culture

Museum

Intellectual Property

Journalism

Picture

Cognition

Information Changes the World 　－ the Global View －

Ikuo Takeuchi“Interface of Information and Art”Information

Culture

Osamu Sudo“Information Explosion and Creation of New Network Society”

Tomomasa Sato“Robot, Information and Life”

Knowledge of Information

Hiroshi Harashima“Why Information Technology Now?”

Hiroshi Komiyama“The University and Information”　－ Information Changes Learning －

PaperTelecommunication

Information Gap

Security

Public Media

Information Distribution

Science Calculation

Anime Game

Drama

Public Art

Education

Manga

Film

WEB2.0

Intelligent Robot

Android

Digital Human

Mass Media

Environmental Robot

Neural Network

Industrial production

Ultimate Frontier Robot

Life-supporting Robot

Cell Production-supporting Robot

Industrial Robot

　

Basic Theme

Now, information technology is in a drastic developmental progress.

Let us see this in terms of 10 years, 100 years

and 1000 years.

Why is this ？

How would a historian after 1000 years write about today’s development of information technology in his book?

Observing progress of IT in terms of 100 years …

Let’s review the last lecture.

Competition for Dominance of the World

・ Domination of the Land　

　 Mongol (13-14c), Ottoman Turks(15-16c)

・ Domination of the Sea 　（ sailing ）　

　 Spain ・ Portugal (16c), Netherlands (17c)　 France ・ England (18c)

・ Domination of Network 　（ information technology ）

－ industrial revolution －　（ railroad technology ）・ Domination of the Sky 　（ aviation/ space

technology ）　

　 the World War 　 England, France, USA vs Germany, Italy, Japan

　 the Cold War 　 USA vs Soviet

In the past,England who won out in the age of seahad experienced industrial revolution.　

21st century, the age of information, has started as the age of the USA.

Now, the USAwho won out in the age of skyexperienced informational revolution.

But would this age last long?

How would the 21st century be?

The 21st Century would be a troublesome age.

Club of Rome （１９７２）

resourcepopulation

production

pollution

ma

ny

few

hands → machinery

Progressed for improvement of production, and only toward quantitative enhancement of human’s abilities

The “Superman” Technology

Past Technologies

legs → transportation

eyes, ears → media

brain → computer

As a matter of course, Superman expends a huge amount of energy.

Tatsuo Motokawa “Time of Elephant, Time of Rat” Chuko Shinsho

Energy consumption at rest is proportional tothe power 3/4.

Fig.3-1 Relationship between metabolism and bodyweight (mammals).Unit of basic metabolism is watt. The watt is equal to one joule of energy per second.

Bodyweight (kg)

Basic M

etabolism

(watt)

rat

mouse

cat

monkey

doggoat

guinea pig

chimpanzee

sheep

human

elephant

horse

wild boar

sow

cow

ox

American diet 　　　 3 billion

In the late 21st century, population on the Earth will rise above 10 billion.

Population Expansivity of the Earth

Japanese diet 　　　 5 billion

developing countries’ diet 　 10 billion

The American model of mass consumption does not work in the 21st century.

Maybe, a book of history after 1000 years would write about the modern age as follows.

resourcepopulation

production

pollution

ma

ny

few

The 20th Century and the early 21st Century was the bubble age. The Industrial Revolution provided humans with technology to use up earth resources in industrial production. Humans prospered instantaneously in this period by chewing up the Earth.Humans had to deal with the aftermath of this in the late 21st Century.

Had such bubble and collapse ever happened in the past ？

It happened in the 14-15 th century!

Demographic Change in Europe

Demographic Change in Europe

European economy developed steadily in the 12, 13th Century, but the change came in the 14, 15th Century. Climate instability such as cold temperature and long rain, poor harvest, starvation, war, and epidemics devastated European societies. Population decreased and villages vanished one after another. The 14th and 15th Century was the worst age in the European history. During this collapse, social structure of Europe in manorialism underwent a great change.

Plague E

pidemic

Plague Patients’ Nurse

warmed patients’ bed with charcoal fire

The Crisis in the 14th and 15th Century Europe

Demographic Change in Europe

European economy developed steadily in the 12, 13th Century, but the change came in the 14, 15th Century. Climate instability such as cold temperature and long rain, poor harvest, starvation, war, and epidemics devastated European societies. Population decreased and villages vanished one after another. The 14th and 15th Century was the worst age in the European history. During this collapse, social structure of Europe in manorialism underwent a great change.

Plague E

pidemic

Plague Patients’ Nurse

warmed patients’ bed with charcoal fire

The Crisis in the 14th and 15th Century Europe

Medieval time

4-10th CenturyStarted from volkerwanderung　 Germanean　 Normanean

Modern times

15-17th CenturyStarted from geographical discovery

　 Spain, Portugal, 　　 Netherlands, France, England11-13th Century

Enhancement of VaticanismAgricultural technology revolution　

Reclamation of the continent led by churches and monasteries

14-15th CenturyDestruction of ecosystemPlague epidemicFamine, Wars

18-20th CenturyProsperity of modern scienceIndustrial revolution　Wide development of the Earth led by industries

21st Century

Destruction of ecosystem,environment, energy riskStarvation? War?

History repeats in the perspective of civilization.

Civilization has life-span.

Acquisition of technology　　↓

Improvement in productivity, population increase 　　　　↓Wastage of natural resources, environment deterioration

　　↓Depression in productivity, population decrease

　　↓Starvation, epidemic, civil war　　↓The end of civilization

Period of Woods and Prairie （ Prehistoric Times ）

　 The birth of humans （ upright walking), food-gathering, hunting 　

Period of Cities （ Ancient Times ）

　 agriculture, cattle breeding, formation of cities

Period of Continents （ Medieval Times ）　 volkerwanderung, reclamation of lands, plague epidemic

Period of the Earth （ Modern Times ）　 geographical discovery, global development, ecological destruction

Period Division

Now, the modern age ( the period of the Earth) is coming to an end.

What kind of age would come next?

All the civilization had its life-span since Tigris and Euphrates.　

　→　 New civilization had been built on newly found continents.

In the modern times, we built civilization on whole earth.Now, there is no more continent on the Earth.

So, what should we do?

After　　“The　Period　of　the　Earth”Comes　“The　Period　of　Space”

Space boom (first landing on moon) in the late 20th century was maybe a preparation for this.

SF predicted the period ofspace.

Can technology catch up?Is there an utopia in the outer space?

If　there　is　no　new　continent　(　new　planet　)　in　the　space,　we　have　to　look　for　a　new　continent　on　the　Earth.　

The information boom from the late 20th century to the early 21st century was maybe a preparation for this.

　One　possibility　is　　the　construction　of　“a　new　information　　　　continent”　that　needs　　　no　resource　or　energy.

　Anyway,　　what　we　need　now　is“　technology　to　　　　　sustain　the　Earth”.toward a perfect

recycling-based society

A perfect control toward energy and resources saving　　

　　　→　 Realize perfect recycling　　　→　 Stop wasting energy

Information technology would be a key technology to sustain the Earth.

Networking all the contents on the Earth

　　　　　　　　　↓Networking all the “materials” on the Earth

In the 20-21st century, development of information technology was thought to have nothing to do with energy and resources.

However, there was a close relationship between information technology and energy.

In the 21st century, humans challenged to sustain the Earth by information technology, and succeeded in constructing “the New Continent of Information” that does not consume any material nor energy.

The history book after 1000 years might say …

Would this be a real solution?

There might be some other thing which is more important.

Maybe, this is only a temporarylife extension.

However…

The important thing now is to change the quality of

civilization.

Let’s look back again on the history.

How is beginning of the modern agewritten in a history textbook?

The Modern SocietyFormation of modern civil society

Renaissance

Geographical discovery

Reformation

During transition from medieval times to modern times, there were great changes in conception of humans and values.

　　 Renaissance, Religious Reformation

Thoughts and philosophy which become leading principles in the next period prosper in revolutionary times.

Period of Woods and Prairie （ Prehistoric Times ）

　 The birth of humans （ upright walking), food-gathering, hunting 　

Period of Cities （ Ancient Times ）

　 agriculture, cattle breeding, formation of cities

Period of Continents （ Medieval Times ）　 volkerwanderung, reclamation of lands, plague epidemic

Period of the Earth （ Modern Times ）　 geographical discovery, global development, ecological destruction

Period Division

Renaissance, religious reformation, modern rationalism

Hellenic culture, Roman culture, 3 major religions

Leonardo

Da Vinci

（１４５２－１５１９）

the man who had both total knowledge and sensitivity knowledge

Knowledge to judge right, good, and beauty

total knowledgeKnowledge to overview the whole

sensitivity knowledge

Now, a person who has both total knowledge and sensitivity knowledgeis needed.

Can anyone be a Da Vincinow?

A question.

Leonardo Da Vinci could have both total knowledge and sensitivityknowledge alone because it was 500 years ago.

This is far impossible now!

Da Vinci Today

A single person cannot be a Da Vinci.

But if experts from various fields collaborate, they can be a Da Vinci as a group.

It is the age for Da Vinci as a group.

University is a group of knowledge.

If there is a system for all campus to collaborate with each other, an university can be a Da Vinci.

The new academic institution where

humanities and sciences cross each borders　

The University of Tokyo

Interfaculty Initiative in Information Studies

(Founded in 2000)

Kang Sang-jung

social thought

Osamu Sakura

evolutionary　biology

Yoichiro KawaguchiCG artist

Katsushi Ikeuchicomputer vision

Shunya Yoshimicultural studies

Shin Mizukoshimedia studies

TRON ， ubiquitous computing

Ken Sakamura

And more …Junichi Hamada ／ Tohru Nishigaki ／ Hidetaka Ishida ／ Akira Baba ／Yuhei Yamauchi ／ Masato Ishizaki…

People in iii

humanitiessciencesfine artsnon-classified…

Osamu Sudoh

electric society

“Scuola d’Atene” RafaelloVatican, Stanza della Segnatura, Rome

For the new scuola

Summary

Ancient times→Medieval timesInvention of paper （ BC ２）3 Major Religions （ Buddhism, Christianity, Islamism)

Medieval times→Modern timesGutenberg printing press （１４４７）Renaissance, Reformation, Modern rationalism

Modern times→ ？？Computer （１９４６） , Internet （１９６９）？？？？？

Progress in information technology gave birth to new thoughts and philosophy.

Environment got set.

Information technology such as internet will create new values.

You are the next leaders.

End

Thank you for listening these 3 lectures.

Dr. Fujiwara, Dr. Yoshimi, Dr. Tanaka, Dr. Kitsuregawa

and Ms. Otaki

Thank you!