04.forest fires 2012_epsilon_210512

3rd International Conference on Modelling, Monitoring and Management of Forest Fires22 – 24 May, 2012, New Forest, UK

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ArcFIRE™/ArcFUEL™: Forest Fire Management

Geoplatform & Fuel Maps

Forest Fires 2012 ConferenceSession ArcFUEL: Advancing Forest Fuel Mapping techniques in Europe

Marc Bonazountas, Despina Kallidromitou, Alkis AstyakopoulosEpsilon International SA | Monemvasias 27 | 15125 Marousi, GR

T: +30-210-6898-614 | [email protected]

2Marc Bonazountas, Alkis Astyakopoulos; EPSILON Greece; T:+30 210 6898614; [email protected]

Outline

Part A: Forest Fire ManagementPart B: ArcFIRE™ TechnologiesPart C: ArcFIRE™ ArchitecturePart D: ArcFIRE™ Services & Basic ModulesPart E: ArcFIRE™ Operation Areas


What is the ArcFIRE™?

Integrated Wildland & Forest Fire Management Geoplatform WITH:

Constant technology evolution since 1990US Forest Service modeling technologiesVital dynamics demanded by planners & decision makers engaged in FF Life CycleNumerous operations in GR,FR,IT,SP,PT


Historic Evolution 1990+Multi-National product (US, EU, MS)Product via EC Fomfis (1990)Product via EC participations (e.g., Orchestra) and Spanish applicationsOperational product via the OA-Athens-2004 installations (2004-5)EC/SCIER programme (2009)Numerous applications in GR/NTUA, IT, ES, PT and cooperation with US Dept. FS/FFLMore than 10 million in RTD development.More than 100 people engaged in RTD, testsReal installation in RG: Seix-Sou ForestArcFIRE™ >> Pan-EU, multi-geo-platform (2010) >> BRISEIDE (web-services via cloud 2011).


Introduction

FF hazard is continuously increasing

Up to 1975: aver. annual burnt area at national level=127.000 acres/yearaver. frequency=650 fire events

Up to 1998: aver. annual burnt area at national level=487.000 acres/yearaver. frequency=1.713 fire events

>> 250% increase


Main Driving Factors

Lacking of forest management practices (e.g. biomass accumulation)Mismanaged spatial planning and inappropriate land use practices and patternsSocio-demographic factorsClimate change & extreme weather conditionsEconomic factorsLow resources availability to monitoring mitigation


ArcFIRE™ Life Cycle


ArcFIRE™ Life Cycle“Awareness” is:

to minimize FF impacts to the environment and people as a result of operations made “prior to a fire”.

“Emergency” is:to assist planners, decision makers and fire fighters in their mission “during the fire”

“Impacts” is:to assess & quantify environmental, economic & social Impacts “after the fire”.

“Dissemination” is:to provide information on international best practices and on “lessons learned” from past fire events.


ArcFire™ Awarenesse.g.: FF Risk Assessment

Index of Ignition. Measures the exposure to FF Driving Factors per EGU: Human Activity, Power Supply Network, Industry, Natural phenomena, other.

Propagation Index. Calculates the conditional probability of Fire Propagation given an Ignition Source. Probability is calculated in reference to CLC, Fuel Coverage.

(Meteorological) Probability of Ignition Index. Calculates the conditional probability of Fire Propagation given an Ignition Source. Probability is calculated in regards of Meteorological Conditions.

Fire Hazard Index. Classifies the Intensity of a potential Fire at the range 0- to 100%. For the static case, Intensity is calculated for the average meteorological conditions belonging to the 1% of the annual worst meteo-conditions in favor of Forest Fires.

Fire Cost Index: Calculates the environmental, socioeconomic, aesthetic damage caused by a potential Fire as a Function of CLC and POIs related to Infrastructures & Properties.


FF Risk Assessment


e.g.: Early Warning ToolsSmall Areas of high Risk: In situ Sensors, Wireless Networks (IEEE 802.14.5), Meteo-stations (CR800). Larger Area of Medium Risk: Cameras for monitoring & pattern recognition (G4S- ©Bosch).

Very Large Areas: Satellite Surveillance (MODIS).

ArcFire™ Awareness


ArcFire™ Awareness


e.g.: Fire Simulation“Wind” Field modeling“Surface” Fire Propagation (Rothermell Model)“Crown” Fire Propagation“Stochastic” Propagation including wind perturbation

Input DataDigital Terrain (slope, aspect)Meteo Forecasts (wind field, relative humidity)Fuel Moisture (Dead/ Live)Fuel Maps

User InteractionTime of SimulationIgnition PointsSimulation Time (hours)

Output Fire Access Time (FAT)Fire-Front contoursFire Statistics

ArcFire™ Emergency


Propagation MechanismGives Fire-Front spatiotemporal evolutionUses a Vector Propagation Law. Input: Fuel Model & Terrain and Meteo-conditionsApplies a Correction Factor for wind & upslope aspect Applies Iterative Cellular Automata: spread to neighbor cells

N (0º)

R

Bω

XRATEXDIR

RBACK

θ

E (90º)Changeboundary

tR

F

RtB

tA AB

A

1 2

3

456

7

8



e.g.: Tracking & Rooting of ground units“Find” a Unit/ “Retrieve” past positions/ give guidanceUse Hybrid satellite (GlobalStar/ Iridium) and ground communications (GSM/GPRS, 3G) to achieve “100% coverage”



e.g.: EvacuationGive the FF start time yyyymmdd hh mmRun a Fire Simulation Insert From- To Destination to find the optimum rootingGive the expected time of arrival in regards of FF start time Consider all Road Edges affected by the Fire Front as non TraversableCalculate Fastest PATH Select Solve. Give the time offset from the start of the fire. This offset View new route.



ArcFire™ Impacts

e.g.: Post Fire Flood-RiskBurn SeverityRainfall Forecast & Annual StatisticsDirect Run-off & Peak Flow

e.g.: Social & Economic ImpactsBurnt Area, Timber & Agrarian loss, Recreational value


ArcFire™ Dissemination

e.g.: Special e-Publicationsuser manuals & white papers (library of science) on all ArcFIRETM Modules

e.g.: Spatial-Temporal Datasets onFF History in regards of x, y, z, t of Ignition, meteo-conditions, Land Use etc Statistical Patterns found in FF History

e.g.: References & Scientific Papers on“Lessons Learnt”cumulative multinational knowledgebest practices, etc.


ArcFIRE™ TechnologyS/w Architecture

ArcGIS ESRITM TechnologyOperated as Desktop (local) or Web ServiceMeet OGC, INSPIRE, ISO, standards

InteroperabilityModular Architecture to incorporate new emerging modulesAdopt Global Technology Standards: OGC, XML, tcp/ip, soa, http

Info & MeteoCooperate with Weather Forecast Authorities/ Institutions (meteo-grid ESP, nkua GR)Standardized Forecast Data Transfer protocols (ESRI ASCII GRIB format)


ArcFIRE™ TechnologyGeo-Information

Develop Custom SDI adhering to ArcFIRETM requirementsMeet OGC standards

Land Soil & ForestryScalable XML catalogue for Surface & Crown Fuel ModelsInclude Established (NFFL, Prometheus, Scott Burgan) & Custom Catalogues (SEIX SOU etc)

Sensors & CamerasWireless Sensor Networks: energy efficiency, self-organizing data transfer over standard wireless protocols IEEE 802.15.4 standard Zigbee.Meteo Stations and data transfer via standard data-logger protocols (CR800) Monitoring Cameras (G4S©, Bosch©)Pattern recognition systems


ArcFIRE™ TechnologyCommunications

GSM/3G Networks to interact with mobile unitssatellite Networks (GlobalStar/ Iridium) to achieve 100% coverage for the Area of operation even under extreme conditions.

Fire DynamicsWind Field modelling (New Atmos, UoA, MeteoGRID)Surface Fire Propagation (Rothermell Model) Crown Fire Propagation Stochastic Propagation including wind perturbation etc.

Control Command Centre (CCC)Coordinates all modulesEstablishes high availability communication pipelinesEquipped with dual server, clients, TV monitoring stations etc.


ArcFIRE™ TechnologyFuel Classification Mapping (TBC)

Updates fuel maps annually using remote sensing along with vector GIS and ground truth data >>important components of fuel models mapping and fire hazard mitigation.


ArcFIRE™ Modules


ArcFIRE™ Architecture


ArcFIRE™ ArchitectureApplication Layer

Heavy Clients: Desktop Clients operate a tool which hosts all ArcFIRE™ modules (ERSI/ArcMap™ or ESRI/ArcGISExplorer™ - TBD)Thin Clients: Mobile Clients have limited access to ArcFIRE™modules (ESRI/ArcPAD™)

Server LayerInterface between the Desktop Clients and the Data LayersOperates a list of ServicesData-flows are triggered under client requestsAdheres to requests for input data coming from a Client and checks in Data Layer for availabilityMakes sure that output from ArcFIRE™ modules is properly stored in the Data Layer


ArcFIRE™ ArchitectureData LayerStatic Data:

bare some or no changes in the long-termfuel maps: surface/ crown fuel types (.shp)terrain maps: slope, aspect (ESRI grid)Land Use (.shp) Road & Power Supply Networks (dataset)

Spatio-Temporal Data:bare significant changes in the short-termreal time Meteorological Measurements (tables, point, .shp)Meteorological Forecasts (ESRI grid)


ArcFIRE™ ArchitectureData Layer – Folder Structure

1. SSS: scene identifier e.g. 001. All files (static and dynamic) that are under the same scene have the same geographical extent, resolution and projection system.

2. YYYY: Time Stamp the Forecasts and INDEXES are issued (year)

3. MM: Time Stamp of Forecasts and INDEXES are issued (month)

4. DD: Time Stamp of Forecasts and INDEXES are issued(day)

5. yyyy: Fire Ignition Time Stamp (actual year)6. mm: Fire Ignition Time Stamp (actual month)7. dd: Fire Ignition Time Stamp (actual day)8. sss: simulation session. Each day

yyyymmdd might have up to 999 simulation sessions. Each session identifies a simulation for a particular hour and minute of the day yyyymmdd


ArcFIRE™ basic modules

Fire detectionRequest for a Forecast MapRequest for an IndexSet-up a new simulationRetrieve a simulationEdit a simulationView meteo dataTrackingRooting & Evacuating


Successfully operated in 10+ projects, as:

Seih-Sou Forest, Thessaloniki, Greece (2010-2011), 100km2, Wildland Urban Interface Area, 200.000 habitantsTaxiarchis Forest, Poligiros Chalkidiki, Greece (2008), 155 km2, Forest Area, sparsely populated Stamata Region, Attika, Greece (2009), 15 km2, Wildland Urban Interface Area, 40.000 habitantsAubagne, Marseille, France, (2008) 15 km2, Wildland Urban Interface, Habitants 40.000, Bacva, Chech Republic. (2008), 1630 km2, River Basin, Habitants 100.000

ArcFIRE™ Operation Areas


Area: 100km2

Area Description: Wildland Urban InterfaceHabitants: 200.000Period of Operation: 15 March- todayFunded by: Region of Central Macedonia

Seih-Sou Forest (GR)


Taxiarchis Forest (GR)

Area: 155km2

Area Description: ForestHabitants: Sparsely PopulatedPeriod of Operation: 2008Funded by: Regional Administration


Stamata Region (GR)

Area: 15 km2

Area Description: WUIHabitants: 40.000Period of Operation: 2009Funded by: EC


Aubagne Region (FR)

Area: 15km2

Area Description: Sparsely PopulatedHabitants: 4.000Period of Operation: 2008Funded by: EC


Becva Region, (CH)

Area: 500 km2

Area Description: WUIHabitants: 100.000Period of Operation: 2009Funded by: EC


Your participation

Register with usBasic training & material, as linked to Universities or to usYour cases and your applicationsUniversity theses supportedThird party funding supportTechnologies interchangeSocial and other LinkedIN networkingAlways at the frontier (professionally, operationally)

3rd International Conference on Modelling, Monitoring and Management of Forest Fires22 – 24 May, 2012, New Forest, UK

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Thank you!

Forest Fires 2012 ConferenceSession ArcFUEL: Advancing Forest Fuel Mapping techniques in Europe

Marc Bonazountas, Despina Kallidromitou, Alkis AstyakopoulosEpsilon International SA | Monemvasias 27 | 15125 Marousi, GR

T: +30-210-6898-614 | [email protected]

04.forest fires 2012_epsilon_210512

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