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SHTP’s  1st  Annual  Conference  2013  November  28,  2013  Ho  Chi  Minh  City  

Opportunities  in  200mm  Semiconductor  technology  markets  

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Eduard  Hoeberichts  -­‐  Biography  Eduard  Hoeberichts  has  been  in  the  semiconductor  industry  since  1995,   and   has   a   broad   experience   in   business   management,  lithography  and  technology  development  for  IC  manufacturing  for  Moore’s  Law  and  More  than  Moore  Applications.        Founded  FabMax  in  2012  to  focus  on  realizing  larger  technology  and  funding  projects  and  “innovation”.  www.fab-­‐max.com      Chairman   of   SEMI   SEA   Global   Interest   Group   since   2009.  www.semi.org      ASML  (95-­‐2007)  initially  as  Director  of  Investor  Relations  (95-­‐96)  and  as  the  SVP  ASML  Division  Special  Applications-­‐200mm  for  10  years  (97-­‐07).        Founder   and   CEO   of   Simax   International   in   2007  which   offered  customers  a  service  and  support  solution  for  equipment.  Led  the  company   to   grow   to   $25M   sales   in   4   years.   Raised   $25M   in  funding.  Left  as  CEO  in  2012.    

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Outline  

§  Semiconductor  industry  Ø Market  trends  

§  300mm  vs  200mm    Ø  “Moore’s  Law  vs    “More  than  Moore”  

§  Closer  look  at    markets  Ø  LED’s,  MEMS,  Power/analog  

§  200mm  plays  important  role    §  Examples  of  device  innovation  

Ø MEMS  Ø  CNT  Sensor  

§  Innovation  for  new  region  -­‐  Vietnam  

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v  I  would  like  to  thank  SEMI  for  the  support  and  use  of  the  material  in  this  presentation.  

Acknowledgement  

SEMI:  The  Global  Association  

•  Global  Association    ~2,000  member  companies  

•  Events  –  SEMICON,  SOLARCON  

•  Standards  •  Advocacy  •  Market  Research  •  EHS  •  Semiconductor,  LED,  FPD,  

MEMS,  PV,  plastic  electronics,  emerging  markets  

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“Plenty  of  room  at  the  bottom”    

Back   in   1959   it  was   only   six   years   since  Crick   and   Watson   had   determined   the  double-­‐helix   structure   of   DNA,   the   laser  and  Silicon  Valley  were  still  taking  shape,  Feynman's  Caltech  rival    and  colleague  Murray  Gell-­‐Mann  had    yet  to   propose   the   quark   model   of   particle  physics,  and  scanning  probe  microscopes  and  carbon  nanotubes  were   still  decades    away.  

Innovation today for most semiconductor applications not in 300mm

+

≈ Innovation and opportunites in <= 200mm

Evolution of Chip Demand

Semiconductor Revenues- Low single-digit revenue growth

256 249226

298 300 292 298313 325 333

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Semiconductor Revenue Annual Growth

Source: SIA/WSTS historical year end reports, WSTS June Forecast

Glo

bal S

emic

ondu

ctor

Rev

enue

US

$B

(bar

gra

ph)

Ann

ual G

row

th %

(lin

e gr

aph)

Economic Trends: 2014 Semiconductor Revenue Forecasts:

5,6%

5,6%

6,5%

8,0%

9,0%

9,6%

10,0%

5,1%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%

WSTS (June 13)

Cowan LRA (Aug 13)

Gartner (Sept 13)

IHS iSuppli (Sept 13)

IC Insights (Aug 13)

Henderson Ventures (Sept 13)

VLSI (Oct 13)

Semico (Aug 13)

Source: SEMI

Fab Equipment Spending- Driven by Foundry and Memory (NAND Flash)

US$ Millions

FAB EQUIPMENT SPENDING BY PRODUCT TYPE

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, Sept. 2013

Silicon Wafer Shipment Forecast

Source: Rose Associates 1978 to 1995; SEMI SMG 1995 to 2012; SEMI October 2013

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Chip  Manufacturer  (IDM)  –  Perspective  200mm  Fabs  Largest  Nr.  –  While  300mm  Investment  Dominant  

≤ 200mm wafersize ± 900 fabs ww >90nm node

450 mm technology < 14 nm node? 3 investors?

300mm wafersize ± 100 fabs ww >14nm node?

Source iSupply 2011

??

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Innovation  in  processes  &  materials  

Source: 2007 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS)

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A  mix  of  IC  and  new  materials    for  <300mm  manufacturing  technology  

27/11/13 13

More than Moore Mainstream Semi

0.1 µm

0.2 µm

0.4 µm

0.8 µm

1.6 µm

Inte

gra

tion

Den

sity

(d

esig

n r

ule

)

Integration of functionality

Electronics RF Optics Mechanics Chemistry Biology

Moo

re’s

Law

Le

adin

g E

dg

e S

emi

Opto- MEMS

Photonics

Lab-on- a-chip

Biochips 3D IC

TFH

Compound Semiconductors

MEMS

≤200mm 300mm

LED

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Analog  and  Power  Devices-­‐    Installed  Fab  Capacity  by  Wafer  Size  =  200mm  shift  

2013 Capacity = 2,910 million wafers/month

(in 200 mm equivalents)

2003 Capacity = 1,510 million wafers/month

(in 200 mm equivalents)

Source: SEMI Opto/LED Fab Forecast, Sept. 2013

LED Dedicated Fabs Changing LED Landscape = 100mm -> 200mm!

4 5 8

7 16 70

1 2 10

7 9 18 China

Japan

S. Korea 3 8 14

SEAsia 0 0 4

Taiwan 14 24 42

2001

36

127,124

Year (begin operation)

Total count of LED fabs*

Capacity in 4-inch EQs w/m

2006

64

376,400

2014

166

~2,700,000

Americas Europe/Mideast

*Fab number includes both LED epitaxy and chip facilities.

World LED Capacity Trend – 4 countries lead LED Epitaxy capacity (4” equivalent per month)

Source:  SEMI  Opto/LED  Fab  Forecast  ,  Sept.  2013  

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MEMS  

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MEMS  –  “Transition  to  200mm”  

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§  Power/Analoge  IC’s  –  largest  capacity  growth  in  200mm    §  LED’s  

Ø  100mm  to  150mm  transition,  200mm  future?  Ø  >100  new  fabs  and  new  IDM’s  in  last  10  years  

§  MEMS  Ø  in  “transition”  to  200mm,  but  still  lot  100/150mm  Ø Many  new  fabs  and  IDM’s  

 Conclusion:  The   combination   of   existing   IC   technology   with   device   (design   and  materials)   innovation   is   a   fertile   environment   for   new   technologies  and  companies  to  incubate.      One   of   the   keys   for   success   is   the   establishment   of   a   complete  infrastructure,   from   education   to   design   to   fab   and   fab   support   and  access  to  capital.          

Conclusion:  “200mm  signiYicant  innovation”  

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Examples  of  new  products  

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Carbon  Nanotubes  50  years  later..  

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Healthcare  to  POC  

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CNT  Sensors  Xtreme  Sensitive!  

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New  region’s  –  3  Requirements    

Infrastructure  *  People    *  Training    *  Industry    *  Funding

Global  “Competition”  *  Participate  in  Global  Technology  Network  *  Compete  globally  with  excellent  products

+  “Patience”    *  It  can  take  many  years  to  develop  success    

*  Examples  China,  Russia

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