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Transcript of 02- John Shelford June 22 2005[1]
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Analysis and General Vision ofAnalysis and General Vision of
the Raspberry in North Americathe Raspberry in North America
2005 Chile Export AssociationBerries SeminarSantiago, Chile
June 21-22, 2005
Presented byJohn Shelford
President Global Berry Farms
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PERISHABLESGROUP
OutlineOutline
Fresh Raspberries
Recent Production History
Changing Production Origins
Growth
Outline
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PERISHABLESGROUP
NA Processed RaspberriesNA Processed Raspberries
North American Red Raspberries Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Pounds(Million
Processed Fresh
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PERISHABLESGROUP
NA Processed RaspberriesNA Processed Raspberries
North American Processed
Red Raspberries Production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Years
Pounds(Mi
lliion
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PERISHABLESGROUP
California Raspberry ProductionCalifornia Raspberry Production
20,880,00011,60001,8001999
21,600,00010,8002,0002000
25,070,00010,9002,3002001
29,280,00012,2002,4002002
61,500,00020,5003,0002003
66,560,00020,8003,2002004
TotalYieldAcres
Source: USDA
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PERISHABLESGROUP
Fresh Raspberries Weekly ShipmentsFresh Raspberries Weekly Shipments
Raspberry US Industry Supply in Cases
Source: USDA National Berry Repor t
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
44 45 4647 4849505152 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1314 151617 1819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940 41 4243
Thousand
Weeks
Cases
2002-2003 Industry 2003-2004 Total Industry 2004-2005 Industry
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PERISHABLESGROUP
Weekly FOB PriceWeekly FOB Price
Raspberry US Industry Average Price Per Case
Source: USDA National Berry Report
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
44 46 48 50 52 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42
Weeks
Price
perCase
2003 2004 2005
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PERISHABLESGROUP
Market ShareMarket Share
Raspberry Weeks 44-52,1-20 Analysis
Past 3 Seasons -- Source: USDA
WITH SUPPLY SHARE by ORIGIN %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2003 2004 2005
Millions
Cases
Califor nia Mexico Chile
48%
19%
33%
40%
24%
37%
35%
23%
42%
Growth: 15%
Growth: 18%
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PERISHABLESGROUP
Berry Category in SupermarketsBerry Category in Supermarkets
National Berry Dollar Sales - Convent ional & Organic
Combined by Berry Type
(average per week per store)
$147
$47$28$89
$846
$175
$39
$123
$242
$914
$310
$1,120
$64
$1,327
$165
$343
$84$165
$395
$1,297
Strawberries Blueberries Raspberries Blackberries
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
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PERISHABLESGROUP
Berry Category in SupermarketsBerry Category in Supermarkets
National Berry Category Dollar Share
Conventional & Organic Combined by Berry Type
(average per week per store)
9.0%
2.9%
15.2%
73.3%
7.7%
2.4%
69.0%
18.3%
9.3%
2.9%
68.8%
19.0%18.0%
8.7%
69.7%
3.4%
66.7%
20.3%
8.5%4.3%
Strawberries Blueberries Raspberries Blackberries
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
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PERISHABLESGROUP
Berry Category in SupermarketsBerry Category in Supermarkets
National Berry Category Contribution to Total Produce DollarsConventional & Organic Combined by Berry Type
(average per week per store)
4.5%4.4%
5.2%
5.7%6.0%
4.0%
3.2%
3.1%
3.6%4.0%
1.0%1.0%0.7%
0.8%
1.2%
0.5%0.4%0.5%
0.3%0.5%
0.1% 0.1% 0.2%0.2% 0.3%
0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Total Berry Category Strawberries Blueberries Raspberries Blackberries Specialty & Other Berries
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PERISHABLESGROUP
Raspberry DemandRaspberry Demand
Good and increasing
Retail excellent! Great for special occasions,
every day demand increasing
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PERISHABLESGROUP
Raspberry DemandRaspberry Demand
Improved quality
Flavor
Consistency in appearance
Availability
Demand drivers
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PERISHABLESGROUP
Food ServiceFood Service
Demand is second to strawberries
Raspberries add value to menus
Restaurant luxury perception
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PERISHABLESGROUP
ChallengesChallenges
Fresh Market Growers
Variety development forappearance, taste, size, and
productivity
Development of competitive
varieties that are
economically viable
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PERISHABLESGROUP
ChallengesChallenges
Chilean Growers
Transportation cost
Mexico and California supplies
growth will continue
Climate modification technology
advancing in Mexico and California
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PERISHABLESGROUP
SummarySummary
All raspberries growers for
North American markets must
aggressively develop varieties
delivering superior fruit and
competitive yields to meet the
challenge of the market leader.
There is great opportunity for
the successful achievement ofthis challenge.
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PERISHABLESGROUP
When they dont disappoint
When they are consistent
When they increase consumption
When consumers ask for them by name
When consumers switch stores to get those berries When they build store loyalty
When price does not matter
When competitor retail ads dont drive the business
When shrink is in single digits
When they come with no rejections and 99.9% service levels!
When Are RaspberriesWhen Are RaspberriesNotNot Just Raspberries?Just Raspberries?