01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
-
Upload
srikanthmadhan -
Category
Documents
-
view
228 -
download
1
Transcript of 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
1/20
108 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Detroit, MI April 14, 2008
Business opportunities because thesolution is more than a hybrid
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
2/20
Renewable energy sources have become a must
World fossil fuel energy reserves 2008
Reserves(years atcurrentproductionlevel)
6139 145 80
208 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTXSource: BP report, Roland Berger analysis
Oil Natural Gas Coal Fossil FuelsWeighted Average
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
3/20
120.00
135.00
Gas prices are expected to remain high
Barclays
USD/bl
September 2007WTI crude: USD 80/bbl
Forecasted WTI crude oil price development to 2020 (real USD 2006 per barrel)
308 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
0.00
15.00
30.00
45.00
60.00
75.00
90.00
.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, EIA International Energy Outlook, Ministry of
Finance of selected countries, MEES, Samba
CERA 2
CERA 1
CERA 3
Deutsche Bank
Goldman Sachs
Merril Lynch
EIARussia
Mexico
Saudi Arabia
IEA forecast (WEO 2006)EIA forecast (IEO 2007)
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
4/20
Global CO2 emissions 2007 (%)
Several polluters should be considered in today'sdiscussion
Total: 800 Gt/year
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions (%)
Total: 28 Gt/year
Source of global CO2 emissions 2007
408 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
41.5
Oceans
Vegetation27
Combustionof biomass
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
5/20
Policies in all regions are focused on reducingemissions
(g CO2/km)
USA
508 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
California
Canada
Australia
China
JapanEU
Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
6/20
Hybrid concepts reduce CO2 emissions
Potential CO2 savings (%)Full hybrid
CO2 savings of hybrid concepts
608 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
E-Recuperation(limited)
Start-Stop
E-Boost
E-Recuperation
Start-Stop
Electric driving
E-Boost
E-Recuperation Start-Stop
Functions
Installedelectricalpower(kW)
Mild hybrid
Micro hybrid
150
Newdevelop-ments
Source: Ricardo, TNO, IEEP, Roland Berger
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
7/20
Full hybrids especially help reduce emissions forhigher-weight vehicles
Diesel-Hybrid as full hybridCO2 emission
1) (g/km) per vehicle by weight
708 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
1) CO2 emissions according to NEDC
Diesel-
hybrid
forecast
based on
cost-benefitassumptions
Source: IAV
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
8/20
A full hybrid vehicle currently costs about USD6,000 more than a non-hybrid
Potential CO2 savings2)
(g/km)
Full hybrid
Cost CO2 impact ratio hybrid systems 2006
808 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Cost per vehicle(USD '000)
Micro hybrid
Mild hybrid
1) ICE: Internal combustion engine , 2) Medium size vehicle (e.g. VW Golf)
Source: Ricardo, Roland Berger
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
9/20
To reduce CO2 emissions focus should be onreduction of road resistance
Gearbox
Fuel - 100%
Coolingsystem
45.5%
Exhaust gas
23.0%
Mechanical 31.5%
Comments
Direct energy loss in combustionengines accounts for about 68%of total losses
Energy transformation of today's vehicles in NEDC
908 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Heat loss to radiator 18.7%
Convection andradiation
3.2%
Residual heatat
end of test 23.6%
Charge air 1.1%
Intercooler 0.8%
Thermal losses inexhaust pipes 2.6%
Thermal lossesin catalyst 2.6%
Exhaust gasheat losses
15.8%
1.6%
Oil pump 0.5%
Power steering 1.9%
Water pump 0.3%
Alternator 0.6%
Battery
Rollingresistance
11.0%
Accelerationlosses
8.5%
Air resistance 6.4%
ElectricalDevices
0.9%
Warm up26.8%
Roadresistance
25.8%
Charging1.9%
(Braking energy
7.7%)
Accesso
rie
s4.1% Losses from disposal of
energy/heat of the enginethrough cooling system (2/3) andexhaust gas (1/3)
Out of 32% of mechanical energy
transformations only 8.5% areused for driving
Energy losses from brakingaccount for only 7.7% of totalenergy losses
Source: AVL, Roland Berger
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
10/20
Most of the CO2 emission savings in hybridsresult from better operating point adjustments
CO2 [g/miles]
100% 8%
CO2 [g/miles] CO2 [g/miles]
INTERURBAN (Avg. 26 mph) FREEWAY (Avg. 76 mph)URBAN (Avg. 16 mph)
Fuel consumption/CO2 analysis of Lexus Rx 400h full hybrid
1008 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTXSource: TU Darmstadt
Hybrids have no impact on reducing rolling friction, drag coefficient and vehicle weight
Powertrain needs to be optimized as a system
Hybrids with e-boost function pave the way for downsizing
320
58%
0
100% 4% 5% 20%
71%
0
320
100% 1% 1% 0% 98%
0
320
Bench-mark
vehicle
Start-stop
Recupe-ration
Optimizeoperating
point
Rx 400h Bench-mark
vehicle
Start-stop
Recupe-ration
Optimizeoperating
point
Rx 400h Bench-mark
vehicle
Start-stop
Recupe-ration
Optimizeoperating
point
Rx 400h
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
11/20
If a car were a house (1/2)
Energy is saved by:
R
A JTEnergy consumption =
1108 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Thermal insulation(RL)
and by
Controlling thethermostat (TA)
Build smaller houses
(A A)
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
12/20
If a car were a house (2/2)
Energy is saved by:
1208 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
More efficient powertrains
and by
Driving less, slower and more
constantly
Lighter and smaller cars
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
13/20
Fuel consumption is a function of vehicleattributes and powertrain technologies
Freeway
Road resistance
Aerodynamics
Powertrain technology
Multi-speed transmission
Importance of attributes relative to annual mileage and driving style
ecovery
Powertrain size
1308 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Urban
MILEAGELow High
DRIVING
STYLE
Weight
Kinetic energy recovery providing
electric power
Efficient low-range transmission
Roadresista
nc
Weight/kineticenerg
y
Powertrain technology
PriceImportance of attributes
Kinetic energy recovery
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
14/20
Best vehicle types depend on annual distancedriven and driving conditons
Vehicle styles best suited to each driving style
Freeway
Non-hybrid,
aerodynamic,
Low-tech,
aerodynamic,
1408 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Urban MILEAGELow High
DRIVING
STYLE
4-cylinder sedan
Lightweight,
diesel/
hybrid vehicle
gasoline-
powered car
Low-tech,
gasoline-powered, micro-
hybrid,
lightweight
vehicle
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
15/20
Electric vehicle will be the next logical step fromhybrids
Hybrids
Electric Vehicle (EV)with "ICE rangeextender"
BatteryEVTechnology
Examples Micro Mild Full
Fuel CellEV
Low or zero-emission technologies and examples
1508 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX 15
TeslaSmart
tart- top - oost
Civic IMA Prius
- r v e
GM E-Flex
- r v e
Potential
CO2reduction
3-4% < 15% < 20% < 100% 100%
Range
E-Motor
(miles)
0 0 6-31 124-249 200-400
FCXconcept
100%1) ?
Pure Electric Vehicles
1) If one regards total energy balance, CO2 reduction potential is significantly smaller than 100%
Source: Roland Berger Research
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
16/20
By 2015 battery driven EVs will grasp a significantmarket share
40% of world population will live in cities
(>1 million people) & California willrequire a share of Zero-Emission-vehicles in fleet
1608 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
ELECTRICVEHICLESBattery technology improvements (will)provide sufficient range & costs willcome down
New market players will be on themarket with electric cars & increase thepressure on the OEMs
Source: Roland Berger
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
17/20
Hydrogen powered Electric Vehicles will not playa significant role before 2020
Four major stoppers for the success of hydrogen as the future fuel have been identified
1. Infrastructure to supply the fleet just in the US will cost over 500 USD billion
1708 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
.
3. End user technologies such as fuel cells won't be market competitive by
2020
4. Othercompeting technologies such as PHEVs1) and BEVs2) offering today
better CO2 emissions levels at a market competitive price and with lower
investment requirements will already be established in the market and may
"close the door for FCEVs3)"
Source: Fuel Cell Vehicles, US Department of Commerce, Argonne National Laboratory
1) PHEV = Plug In Hybrid Vehicle, 2) BEV = Battery Electric Vehicle, 3) FCEV = Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
18/20
ZEV are at least 2 times more efficient than fuelcell cars
Overview of energy efficiency from Well-to-Wheel comparison for hydrogen and
electricity
20100
Hydrogen Well-to-Wheel efficiency Electricity Well-to-Wheel efficiency
8100
1808 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
283
27
184
Electr.Well
H2Prod.
H2Transp.
H2Compression
FuelCell
Electr.DriveTrain
Energyleft
698
5
Electr.DriveTrain
Li-ionBattery
Electr.Well
Powerlines
Batterycharger
Energyleft
Source: Roland Berger
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
19/20
Business opportunities are abundant because thesolution is more than a hybrid
Technology development and supply of:
Efficient gas engines Efficient diesel enginesEfficient DiesOtto
engines
1908 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Electric motors and
EMSEfficient transmissions
Light weight AWD
capabilities
Light weight body
structures
Communication/
Integration,
vehicle/vehicle and
vehicle/infrastructure
-
8/14/2019 01. VanAcker - Roland Berger
20/20
2008 04 14-DTW-WvA-OESA Energy Future Powertrain-F.PPTX
Detroit, MI April 14, 2008
Business opportunities because thesolution is more than a hybrid