01 hoffmann applied solar expertise

PROSPECTS & CHALLENGES DURING INTRODUCTION OF NEW PRODUCTS IN THE PV MARKET

Winfried HoffmannWinfried HoffmannPresident EPIA

bifiPV Workshop

Konstanz, 23rd April 2012

Applied Solar Expertise

Dr. Winfried Hoffmann – ASEPresident EPIA

SMA Management Board Representative to the EPIA

Member of the Supervisory Board of SMA Solar Technology AG

Member of Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and Supervisory Board of ISFH and Helmholtz

Customer Needs

… and market size from a GW perspective

on-grid off-grid consumer high efficiency

Small nichemainstream Small niche

3Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop

€/kWh €/hr light W/m² g/W

Source: Fraunhofer ISE

€/m² / aesthetics €/W flexibility W/mm²

nicheSmall niche Small niche

Berlin 120419 Thin Film

c-Si Commercial Module Efficiency

Photon 2007 Module Survey Results

19.3

16.7

15.1

13.5 13.713.3

14.2 14.4 14.4 14.414.0 13.8

13.113.7

14.3

13.312.8

12

14

16

18

20

Effi

cien

cy (%

)

Error bars show mean efficiency for all products

specialized manufacturing Standard

Cells


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Sun

pow

er

San

yo

BP

LG

BC BP

Sha

rp M

ono

Sha

rp M

ulti

Kyo

cera

Sun

tech

Mon

o

Sun

tech

Mul

ti

Mot

ech

Mon

o

Mot

ech

Mul

ti

Deu

tsch

e M

ono

Deu

tsch

e M

ulti

Mits

ubsh

i

JA

Sch

ott M

ulti

Sch

ott E

FG

Effi

cien

cy (%

)

7% B

deg

rada

tion

Source: Photon International, Mar-08

Crystalline Silicon PV Module Value Chain

Poly-SiFeedstockPoly-SiFeedstock

IngotProductionIngotProduction

CellProductionCellProduction

ModuleAssemblyModuleAssembly

Distribution,Integration &Installation

Distribution,Integration &Installation

MC

Wafer orSheetProduction

Wafer orSheetProduction


Cz


New products and processes for c-Si compared to mainstream products

Mainstream „new„new

Product“ orProcess“

Poly Si

Wafer


Cell

Module




Poly Si Gas phasedestillation &Siemens reactor

- Same -

Fluidized Bed

mg-Si (no gas phase cleaning)

Wafer


Cell

Module

Solar Grade

PhysicochemicalPurification Process

High-Purity Silicon For Photovoltaic Energy Conversion


Source: PV Silicon AG, 2006

Quarzite

CokeMG-Si

ChemicalReactionHCI

SiCl4

SiHCl3SiH2Cl2

PurificationConversion

SiHCl3

SiH4

ThermalDecompositionCVD

Mod. EG-Silicon

Grade Silicon


15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

100

1000

10000

Solarsilicon

Byproducts of Electronics

Demand

CAGR Poly-Demand 2004 - 2010: + 15 %

SOLAR-GRADE SILICON: Moduleproduction(MW) and Polysilicon Production (tons) AN NOT FOLLOW DEMAND – Perspectiv 2006.

tons MW

3,1 GW


Feedstock for the PV Industry Karl Hesse, Ewald Schindlbeck, April 11 2005,

0

5000

10000

15000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1

10

Demand

Moduleproduction

Moduleproduction based on 20 % growth/year

Projection





- Same -

Fluidized Bed


Wafer mc + Cz crystal & wire saw (slurry )

Multi goes monoDiamond coated

Ribbon


wire saw (slurry ) Diamond coatedwire (…TFX)

Cell

Module

Wafer Production EFG Technology withRWE SCHOTT Solar (2003)

conventional Technology

solidification

melting &crystallisation

EFG Technology

Silicon ribbon pull

11Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop 11

Wafer cuttingSi ribbonsgrowth

Laser cutting

Si ribbons (disruptive in 70ies) versus mainstream wafer cutting

� when Mobile started EFG ribbon technology, wafer cutting by ID saws used about 1 mm crystal (0.5mm kerf loss, 0.5mm waferthickness)

� with the advent of wire saws the kerf loss and the waferthickness decreased by continuous development (volume!)


� in addition the crystallization technology, both Cz and mc, developed further, thereby reducing the €/kg ingot significantly

� The huge expansion in poly Si production decreased the priceper kg significantly

� the small, yet existent efficiency gap (~0.5% abs) added to theend of EFG technology in 2010 (cumulative spending about 500 m€)





- Same -

Fluidized Bed


Wafer mc + Cz crystal & wire saw (slurry)

Multi goes monoDiamond coated wire ribbon


wire saw (slurry) Diamond coated wire ribbon

Cell f-/b- screen printedcell

Selective emitterBifiMIS-IL

MWTBack cont.

Module

Main stream versus disruptive cell technology

StartStd pn

Screen printSiN passivation

Disruptive 1Bc cell(SunPower)

Disruptive 2HIT(Sanyo)

time


Selective emitter

New passivation, laser, …

Today cumulative experience ca 60 GW Ca 3 GWCa 2 GW

Example main stream versus disruptive

MIS-IL solar cell (ISFH/NUKEM)

� industrialization of PECVD process for SiN AR andpassivation, necessary for MIS-IL, boosted mainstream (R&R SINA)


� evaporation of Al was demonstrated at pilot scalebut could not be transferred to high volumeproduction (lack of equipment for cost efficientmetalization at that time … things have changed bynow!)

� … new approach with US start-up

High Efficiency Solar Cells

Back contact for highest current


n-type base





- Same -

Fluidized Bed


Wafer mc + Cz crystal & wire saw (slurry)

Multi goes monoDiamond coated wire ribbon


wire saw (slurry) Diamond coated wire ribbon



MWTBack cont.

Module Glass – EVA –backfoil & lamination

Glass – new encaps– glass (1mm)

No laminationNo encapsmaterial

From Cell to Module Production






- Same -

Fluidized Bed


Wafer mc + Cz crystal & wire saw (slurry )

Multi goes monoDiamond coated

Ribbon


wire saw (slurry ) Diamond coatedwire (…TFX)



MWTBack cont.

Module Glass – EVA –backfoil & lamination

Glass – new encaps– glass (1mm)

No laminationNo encapsmaterial

Main stream New product or process

chal

leng

es� Competitive pricing � Piloting new processes

� Tedious and costly ramp up

� Possibility to become mainstream product for the mainstream market


chal

leng

es

stream market

� … proof of 30+ years lifetime(25 +/- year warranty)

chan

ces

� Quick ramp-up –important in times ofhigh growth andlimited capacity

� reduction of capexand material cost

� Product differentiation –important in times ofconsolidation

� Possibility to serve a betterpriced niche market

Global installed capacity 2011

~70 GW (~ 80,000,000 MWh)Corresponding to 53 full size 1,300MW nuclear reactors

… and energy wise to the annual output of 9 such reactors


Europe alone has installed more in 2011 than the total capacity outside Europe.

Market imbalance has deepened in 2011


EPIA / Navigant Consulting

1001980 2005 20081990 2000

Price Experience Curve

Photovoltaic

1. PEC for c-Si will continue

2. Reason for different PEC and PEF for Thin Film PV

28Bruxelles, 21 March 2012. 7th EPIA Market Workshop28

1

10

1,E+00 1,E+01 1,E+02 1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05

MW accumulated

AS

P in

$/W

PEF 20%

source: NAVIGANT

Thin Film

and PEF for Thin Film PV

3. Different growth rates forglobal PV installations asparameter

4. Different fraction of TF/c-Si as parameter

10,0

AS

P in

$/W

Case A – cSi 20%

PEC ScenarioCase A: BaselineTF share 15% constTF PEF 20%

Case B:Paradigm ShiftTF share 15% → 35%TF PEF 25%

10,0

AS

P in

$/W

Case B – cSi 20%c-Si Technology

price expectation in 2020

Photovoltaic –Future Price Development… with “healthy” module prices …

as of 2011/12


0,1

1,0

1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06

MW accumulated

AS

P in

$/W

Case A – TF 20%

0,1

1,0

1,E+03 1,E+04 1,E+05 1,E+06

MW accumulated

AS

P in

$/W

Case B – TF 25%

price expectation in 2020 ca. 60 – 80 $ct/W

Thin Film Technologyprice expectation in 2020

ca. 30 – 70 $ct/W

Technology Evolution

75

100

todayc-Si

TF

a-Si-pin/pin, II-VI

r/mgmc

Cz

+ (4 to 5) years *

SiIII -V

Mod

ule

pric

e (r

el. U

nits

)

r ribbon

mg metallurgicalgrade Silicon

mc multicrystalline

Cz Czochralski


ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates

0 5 10 15 20 250

0 5 10 15 20 250

25

Module Efficiency [%]

a-Si/µc-Si,dye a-Si-pin

II-VI

r/mgmc

Cz+ (10 to 13) years *

50

30

Mod

ule

pric

e (r

el. U

nits

)

@ - (8 to 10) %price decrease per year

Beyond 20 years

OPV

Cz Czochralski

CPV concentrated PV

OPV organic PV

Share of PV Technologies

60%

80%

100%

New Technologies


0%

20%

40%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

New Technologies

TF

cSi

Ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates

TF like c-Si(TFX)

www.epia.org

01 hoffmann applied solar expertise

Presentations & Public Speaking

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