01 edwin koot - solarplaza
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Transcript of 01 edwin koot - solarplaza
19-11-2010
2 9-11-2010
The experts
3 9-11-2010
Observations…
24-01-2011 4
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000 20
01
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
[MWp/year] WORLD PV MARKET
NEWLY INSTALLED PV POWER
The Global PV market
Crisis, what crisis?
2009: +15% growth 2010: +100% 2011: +15%...?
CAGR: 52%
Market hard to predict…
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
[MWp/year] WORLD PV MARKET
2009 FORECAST NEWLY INSTALLED PV POWER
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
[MWp/year] WORLD PV MARKET
2011 FORECAST NEWLY INSTALLED PV POWER
2010: Germany…and the rest
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Germany
Italy
Czech
Repu
blik
USA
Japa
n
Fran
ce
China
Belgium
South
Korea
Australia
52% global market share; 21 MW/day…
What will happen in 2011?
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
Q2-‐08 Q3-‐08 Q4-‐08 Q1-‐09 Q2-‐09 Q3-‐09 Q4-‐09 Q1-‐10 Q2-‐10 Q3-‐10 Q4-‐10 Q1-‐11
[$/W
p]
Solarfun (NASDAQ)
Module prices in decline…
9
-/- 59%
Germany: the engine of the solar industry…
Buerstad; 50.000 m2, Photo by Ralph Orlowski/2005 Getty Images, Inc.
10 MW Sunpower project in Bavaria 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
[MWp/year]
© Solarplaza April 2010; Data source: Bundesnetzagentur plus Solarplaza model
?
Saturation of German market?
• 2010: PV electricity = 2.1% • CAGR = 68% (2002-2010) • Continuation feasible? 2015:
– 105 GW/yr – 250 GW cumulative – 31,5% of electricity consumption
• FiT reductions = ‘run on last subsidies’?
• Germany: ‘trainer PV industry…’
Decreasing German FiT reaching grid-parity
per July: 15% reduction
The Future…
Wind versus PV: 9 years’ difference
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
[GWp/yr]
PV market volume [GWp]
Wind energy market [GWp]
Wind energy data for 9 years ago; 2008 data generated in 1999
Anticipated growth of PV market
Wind versus solar energy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Wind Energy market [GWp]
PV market volume [GWp]
30% CAGR
PV market growth scenarios
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
[GWp/yr]
Optimistic growth scenario of 30%
Growth scenario of 25% > 2014
© SolarPlaza June 2008; Data source: analyses by SolarPlaza based on various sources
25%/year € 190 billion
CAGR Wind –energy: 30%/year € 500 billion
2006:
Global market [GWp]: 1.8
First Solar [MWp]: 100
c-Si Module [$/Wp]: ≈4.50
5 years ago & 5 years from now…
2011:
>17
>2250
1.80 * Solarplaza 2016 estimate: 30% growth 2013-2016
2016:
>40
>8000*
<1.15
Growth electricity consumption
0
5
10
15
20
25
30 20
10
2015
[Trillion kWh/year]
World Net Electricity Power Generation EIA forecast
+16%
-‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2015
Expected new PV power
Fully covered by new PV
power
[GW]
2016: Grid parity… What will happen?
• 3 kWp PV ≈ 5,5 k€ – € 0,24/kWh (Belgium) – € 0,16 (Spain)
• Electricity = commodity • ‘run on PV’? • All manufacturers sold
out? PV = Sold Out!
Market survey…
• James Surowiecki: “The Wisdom of Crowds”
• “Large groups of people are smarter than an elite few”
20 9-11-2010
De Belgische PV markt: Nieuw geïnstalleerde MW’en in 2011:
• <150 MW • <300 MW • <450 MW
21 9-11-2010
Grid-parity kan in België bereikt worden…
(in woningmarkt, zonder subsidies)
1. >10 jaar 2. >5 jaar 3. >2 jaar
22 9-11-2010
Om de Belgische markt te ontwikkelen, zijn groene certificaten
nog nodig gedurende…
• >8 jaar • >5 jaar • >2 jaar
23 9-11-2010
Hoeveel bent u zelf bereid meer te betalen voor pure zonnestroom van
uw eigen dak?
• Nee, niets • €0.01-0.03 per kWh • >€0.03 per kWh (ca. €90/jaar)
25 24-01-2011
26
9-11-2010
24-01-2011 27
Markt onderzoek
Hoe lang bent u al actief op het gebied van zonne-energie (PV)?
• Meer dan 5 jaar • Enkele jaren • Net gestart
De produktiekosten van zonnestroom zijn in België in 2013…
1. >€ 0.25/kWh 2. >€ 0.20/kWh 3. >€ 0.20/kWh
29 9-11-2010
De verkoopprijs van een c-Si module in 2012 is…
1. >€ 1.50/Wp 2. >€ 1.30/Wp 3. >€ 1.10/Wp
30 9-11-2010
