Natural Disasters and Climate Change Indi Mclymont-Lafayette Panos Caribbean.
01 Climate Change LA and Caribbean
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Transcript of 01 Climate Change LA and Caribbean
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Climate Change in Latin
America and the Caribbean
An overview
http://americas.sas.ac.uk/ -
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Structure
LAC Physical Environmentand Resources
LAC SocioeconomicEnvironment
AnthropogenicEnvironmental Change
Current and ProjectedRegional Impacts of
Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation
to Climate Change
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Physical
Environment
Great climatic variation
(latitude and altitude)plus ENSO
Vegetation/biodiversityassociated with climaticzones
Wealth of naturalresources
Fragile Environments
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Socioeconomic
Environment
Colonial heritage
persists
Cultural Diversity
Population distributed
unevenly: mega citiesand sparsely populated
rural areas.
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Historical Anthropogenic
Environmental Change
Indigenous natural resource use Colonial occupation and impacts
Modernisation and industrialisation
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LAC cities with > one million inhabitants
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CO2 Emissions from the RegionCountry Emissions of CO2/capita in
tons/annum (2000)
USA 5.5
Cayman Islands 2.1
Venezuela 1.8
Mexico 1.2
Argentina 1.0
St Lucia 0.6
Brazil 0.5
Bolivia 0.4
El Salvador 0.3
Honduras and Nicaragua 0.2
Paraguay 0.15
Ethiopia 0.01
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Current Global Scenario
Five warmest years on record:
2005, 1998, 2002, 2003 and 2004
Hydrometeorological disasters have increased
by more than 100% in last 10 years 1990s v. 1960s: 400% more major natural
catastrophes, with costs to world economiesincreasing more than 800%
90% of natural disaster fatalities in 1990s due tohydrometeorological events.
(Roberts and Parks, 2007: 9).
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Regional Climate Change
(GEF, 2004) Increasing minimum temperatures for the
region as a whole
Annual precipitation increasing in sub-tropical South America east of the Andes
Increased frequency of heavy rainfall andflooding events.
Decreased precipitation West of the
Andes Melting of glaciers and high altitude snowand ice cover
Bleaching episodes in the Mesoamerican
Reef System
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Simms and Reid (2006)
El Nio is a crucialfactor
Increasing intensity oftropical storms and
hurricanes: SouthernMexico, CentralAmerica, TheCaribbean
Sea-level rise:Caribbean, CentralAmerica, Venezuelaand Uruguay
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Current GEF-funded studies of
climate risks in LAC
Rio de la Plata (Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina):
flooding events and changes in fisheriesproductivity
Pampas: changes in mixed farming productivitydue to CC and related changes in crop pest and
diseases Mexico and Argentina: climate related risks to
small-holder farmers
Caribbean: increasing incidence of dengue
fever.
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IPCC (2007) Projected Impacts of
CC in LA and the Caribbean Gradual replacement of tropical forest by savannah
in Eastern Amazonia
In NE SA, semi-arid vegetation replaced by arid-landvegetation
Significant biodiversity loss through habitatdestruction and species extinction in tropical LA andthe Caribbean
Tropical areas: productivity of crop and livestock todecrease withve impact on food security
Increase in soybean productivity in temperate zones,but overall increase in number at risk of hunger
Changes in ppt. and decrease in glacial coverreducing water for human consumption, agricultureand energy generation.
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Highly Vulnerable LA and Caribbean
CountriesRoberts and Parks (2007)
World vulnerability rank controlled for
population size:Honduras, Nicaragua, St Lucia, Haiti,Belize and Antigua & Barbados.
Without controlling for population size:
Mexico, Venezuela, Brazil and Argentina
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LA and Caribbean
Vulnerability to Climate ChangeVulnerability: social, economic, environmental & institutional
Countries with colonial legacies of
resource extraction suffer from
declining terms of trade, commodity pricevolatility, low levels of internal integration,
degraded natural environments, weak civil
societies, feeble domestic institutions, highdomestic inequality and large informal
sectors. (Roberts and Parks, 2007: 86-7)
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Adaptation to Climate Change in
LA and Caribbean (GEF, 2004) Adaptation is needed now!
Adaptation to climate change should beintegrated with development policy
Further knowledge of climate changevulnerability and adaptation is needed
Important scientific and technicalcapacities exist in LA and the Caribbean
Building adaptation capacity requires themobilisation and sustaining ofpartnerships among policy, practitioner,stakeholder and science communities.
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GEF Projects related to CC
mitigation and adaptation
in LA: 1991-2006
Removing barriers to energy conservation andefficiency: 12
Promoting adoption of renewable energy by
removing barriers and reducing costs: 23 Reducing Long-term costs of low greenhouse
gas-emitting energy technologies: 06
Promoting environmentally sustainable
transport: 06 Climate Change Enabling Activities: 38
Climate Change short-term measures: 04
Adaptation Plans: 03 (one regional, one global)
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Examples of Adaptation
Regional democratisation
Cuba disaster preparedness
Community Forest Management in Mexico
Rapidly developing biofuels industry in
Brazil Curitiba, Brazil
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Key Issues
LAC climates are changing
Colonial legacy Globally significant energy sector
Globally significant biodiversity resources
Fragile environments, decreasing yields
Water availability decline - conflicts Diverse cultures of NR management
High levels of inequality
Poverty - lack of environmental justice
Inc. transmission of vector-borne diseases Significant regional trading blocs
Resource extractive economies
Spreading populist sentiments/regimes
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ReferencesBray, Merino and Barry (2005) The Communi ty Forests o f Mexico.
University of Texas Press: Austin TX.Deere and Esty (eds) (2002) Greening the Americas. MIT:
Cambridge MA.
GEF (2004) Its raining, its pouring Its time to be adaptingReport of the 2nd AIACC Regional Workshop fo r Lat in Americaand th e Caribbean. Buenos Aires 24-27 August, 2004.
http://www.aiacproject.org/meetings/Buenos_Aires_04/Buenos_Aires.pdf
IPCC Summary of the Synthesis Report o f the IPCC FourthAssessment Repor t. (17 November, 2007).
IPCC (1997) The Region al Impacts of Cl imate Change: AnAs sessm ent of Vulnerabi l i ty.
Roberts and Parks (2007) A Climate of Injust ice. MIT: CambridgeMA.
Simms and Reid (2006) Up in Smoke? Lat in America and theCaribbeanIIED/nef: London
Utting (Ed) (2002) The Greening o f Bu siness in DevelopingCountr ies. Zed: London.