000 cordeirosingularidad2011

132
José Luis Cordeiro The Millennium Project Director, Venezuela Node Singularity University NASA Ames, California, USA IDE – JETRO, Tokyo, Japan (past 3 years) Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea (next 3 years)

description

"El Futuro de la Tecnología y la Tecnología del Futuro", organizada por la Facultad de Sistemas Empresariales - Universidad Científica del Sur

Transcript of 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Page 1: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

José Luis Cordeiro

The Millennium ProjectDirector, Venezuela Node

Singularity UniversityNASA Ames, California, USA

IDE – JETRO, Tokyo, Japan (past 3 years)

Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea (next 3 years)

Lima, 17 de septiembre de 2011

Page 3: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

4 0 N o d o s e n e l m u n d o

The Millennium Project

Page 4: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

The Millennium Project’s 15th AnniversaryAnnual Report Cardon the Future

• Global Challenges• State of the Future Index• Egypt 2020• Future Arts/Media 2020• Latin America 2030• Environmental Security• Other Futures Research

Plus 8,000-page CD

Page 5: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

El Desafío Latinoamericano

Page 6: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Development is faster and faster

La Escalera del Desarrollo(Tiempo para duplicar el PIB por habitante)

Fuente: Basado en Banco Mundial (1991) y Angus Maddison (1994)

La Escalera del Desarrollo

Años

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Reino Unido, 1780-1838

EUA, 1839-1886

Japón, 1885-1919

Italia, 1890-1911

España, 1950-1968

Corea del Sur, 1978-1987

China, 1987-1994

Page 7: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Mientras más rápido vamos, más lejos necesitamos ver

Page 8: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Del Mediterráneo al Pacífico

500 years 5000 years

50 years ???

Page 9: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

China( 中国 )

Page 10: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 11: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 12: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 13: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 14: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

A new face for the world

Page 15: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

A new behind for the world

Page 17: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 18: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 19: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Singularity University

Page 20: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 21: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Ray Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near

• www.singularity.com• Bill Gates• Ley de Moore

Page 22: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 23: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

23

Page 24: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

24

Page 25: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

25

Page 26: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 27: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 28: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 29: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Sequencing the genome: cost and time

Year Cost (US$) Time

2003 1,000,000.000 13 years

2007 100,000,000 4 years

2008 1,000,000 2 months

2009 10,000 4 weeks

2015 100 5 days

2020 10 8 hours

Page 30: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 31: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

“Android” Google Phone (gPhone)

Page 32: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 37: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 38: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 39: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Agricultural revolutionNatural resources

Industrial revolution

Financial resources

Knowledge revolution

Human resouces

The 3 “waves” of Alvin Toffler

Page 40: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Japón: de sacapuntas malos a computadoras buenas en 30 años

Page 41: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Energy “waves”: “decarbonization”

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Future

Others

Gas

Oil

Coal

Wood

Page 42: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Towards a post-petroleum world

British Petroleum

Beyond Petroleum

Page 43: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Jeque Yamani, 2000Arabia Saudita

• La Edad de Piedra se acabó y no por falta de piedras, y la Edad del Petróleo se acabará pronto y no por falta de petróleo.

Page 44: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

From manufacturing to mindfacturing

Page 46: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Finlandia(siglo XIX)

• País pobre

• Atrasado

• Colonia

• Idioma “bárbaro”

Page 47: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Bioenergy and “eternal” energy

• Photosynthesis:CO2 + 2 H2O + light→ (CH2O) + O2 + H2O

• From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates

• Craig Venter and his artificial bacteria

Page 48: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP

NASA: Space Solar Power Strategy2003-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-20202002

Studies & Proof-of-Concept Technology Research (TRL 2-4)

Technology Research, Development and Test (TRL 4-5)

Dual-Purpose Applications R&D (TRL 4-6)

FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

Technology Demos (TRL 6-7)

LEGEND R&D Decision Point

Major R&D Pgm Milestone

Strategic R&T Road Map Objective

MSC 310 MW-Class Flight

Demo (TRL 7)

Complete Initial SSP Technology Research for 1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems

Complete Initial R&D for 1 MW to Full-Scale SSP

Technology Testbeds

MSC 1100 kW Class SSP flight demo

50 M Class flight expt.(incl SPG, AR&D, dist. control)

Component-Level Flight Experiments

Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards

Large structures for large apertures & solar sails

Component-Level Proof-of-Concept

experiments

High Efficiency Arrays for S/C

SSP Concept definition complete

Ground Test very large deployable structures

1 MW Class SSP advanced technology subsystem flight

demo’s (SPG/SEPS/WPT)

10 kW 100 kW 1 MW

High Power SEPS For Science Probes

Lunar Power, Large SEPS

High-Power GEO CommSats

MSC 210-100 kW SSP

planetary surface demo

SSP Model System Concept(s)

MSC 4+(2020+)

Page 49: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 50: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

JAXA: Space Solar Power Strategy

Page 51: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

¿Qué es el futuro?

• ¡El futuro ya no es lo que era antes!

• Lo que hoy se vive no es el acabose, sino apenas el continuose de lo que empezose ya mucho ha.

Mafalda

Page 52: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

• Passive (ostrich) Suffer the future

• Reactive (fire fighter) Respond

• Preactive (insurer) Prepare

• Proactive (builder) Create

Attitudestowards the future

Page 53: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 54: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Sir Arthur C. Clarke with Jose Cordeiro

Page 55: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

The Three Laws of Sir Arthur C. Clarke

• First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.

• Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible.

• Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

Page 56: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Technologies of the “past”

• 30 years agoPersonal computers

• 20 years agoCell phones

• 10 years agoGoogle

• What will happen in 10 years? In 20 years? In 30 years?Immortal (ageless) cells!

Page 57: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Physical Immortality: Death of Death1. Reproductive cells (good)

2. Cancer cells (bad)www.Mprize.org

Page 58: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

NBIC (Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno)National Science FoundationDepartment of Commerce

Page 59: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Neurons

Cogno

NBIC

Bio

Info

Cells

Technological Convergence NBIC

Nano

Bits

Atoms

Page 60: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Technological convergence is accelerating…

… and everything is information

Page 61: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Ray Kurzweil (MIT):The Singularity is Near

• www.singularity.com• Bill Gates• Ley de Moore

Page 63: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Moore’s Wall?

ThermionicTube

Transistor

IC1

IC2

IC3

IC4

IC5

ICn

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

1. 3D ICs

2. Quantum computing

3. Subatomic particles

Log Scale

No!

Page 64: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

1. Nano (NBIC)

Page 65: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Nanotechnology: www.nano.gov

Page 66: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 67: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

2. Bio (NBIC)

Page 68: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

The glo-fish: transgenic fish (Taiwan)

Page 69: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 70: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Dolly: the clone

Page 71: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Singapore: Biopolis 2012

Page 75: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

The attack of the clones?

Page 76: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Synthetic biology is born• Variola virus (smallpox)

Genes: 197Base pairs: 185,000

• Mycoplasma genitalium (bacteria)Genes: 485Base pairs: 580,000

• Homo sapiens sapiensGenes: ~25,000Base pairs: ~3,000,000,000

Page 77: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

3. Info (NBIC)

Page 79: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 80: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 81: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 82: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 83: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

The 3 Laws of “Knowledge”

• Law of Nodes(N units)

• Law of Metcalfe(N x N conexions)

• Law of Reed(exp.N Knowledge)

Page 84: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

                                                               

Global brain?

Page 85: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 86: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

IBM´s Watson won in Jeopardy! February 14-16, 2011

Page 87: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 88: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 89: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

4. Cogno (NBIC)

Page 90: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

The triune brain:Paul MacLean, 1973

• Reptilian (primitive): instincts

• Limbic (paleomammalian): emotions

• Neocortex (neomammalian): intelligence

Page 91: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Riken Brain Institutewww.brain.riken.go.jp

Page 93: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Paul Allen: www.BrainAtlas.org

Page 94: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

• 1 brain• 1011 neurones• 1014 synapsis• 1017 computations

(per second)• And the mind?• And the spirit?• And the soul?

What is a brain?

Page 95: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Internal brain implants: Cyberkinetics Inc.

Page 96: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

External brain implants

Page 97: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Robots in Japan and Korea

Page 98: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Asimo (Honda) evolution

Page 99: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 100: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 101: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 102: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 103: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 104: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 105: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 106: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 107: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Robots are good in Japan

Page 108: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 109: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Kevin Warwick: I, Cyborgwww.KevinWarwick.org

Page 110: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Humans and machines!

Humans or machines?

Page 113: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Transhumanism is S&T for humans: transcending human limitations

www.TransHumanismo.org

Are humans trans-monkeys?

Page 114: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 115: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Transhumanism, yes...but carefully

Homo sapiens sapiens

Page 116: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Superman?

ChristopherReeve

(paraplegic)

Page 117: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Stephen Hawking

Page 118: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Michael J. Fox: Back to the Future

Page 119: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Ronald Reagan:Alzheimer’s

Page 120: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Space:the final frontier?

Page 121: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

SpaceShipOne: Virgin Galactic 2012

Page 122: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

The brain:the final frontier!

Page 123: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Yin-yang 阴阳 (and more yin-yang)

Page 124: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Light up the world

Page 126: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

The world is one

Page 127: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

Guru Cordeiro meditating in India (Hinduism) and in Japan (Buddhism)

Page 128: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 129: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 130: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 131: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011
Page 132: 000 cordeirosingularidad2011

¡Muchas gracias!www.Cordeiro.org