1

How do civil conflicts end?

Repression &surrender

Separation of the parties

• 2/3 of civil wars end with one side surrendering to the other (usually to the state)

• Often leads to recurring conflict later• Repression could also be done by a 3rd party

• More common in ethnic than in ideological conflicts

• More common after extreme violence• Prioritizes immediate safety over peace• Often included in peace settlements if

ethnic groups are regionally concentrated

Power-sharingpacts

• Fewer than 1/2 of civil conflicts historically make it to negotiations, and many of these negotiations fail

• Involves: joint control of government, proportional distribution of resources, group rights, or minority vetoes

• May not be democratic but can create an enduring egalitarian culture

Which do you think lead to the best outcomes?

2

Advantages and disadvantages of separation outcomes

Advantages Disadvantages

• Realistically recognizes that security dilemmas become severe as civil conflict persists

• Can stop violence right away• Allows time for emotion to

subside before engaging the other party

• Usually finds more political support than cross-national appeals

• Homogenous territory is defensible

• Assumes primordial traits and enduring hatreds that prevent cooperation

• Institutionalizes division between groups in the long run

• Makes rebellions for autonomy increasingly attractive

• Ethnic borders are never clearly fixed, creating the “beached diaspora” problem

• Works against equitable division of resources

• Usually requires 3rd party military intervention

vs.

3

Negotiations to end civil conflicts

Challenges

Solutions

• Negotiations are characterized by asymmetry, which works against agreement

• Negotiating groups often split over the advisability of negotiations

• Overtime, rebellion can become an end in itself, instead of a means

• Asymmetry can be partially overcome through an understanding of the costs of stalemate or finding an external partner

– Insurgents can win by not losing– Insurgents can form cross-border coalitions

• Negotiate with moderate leaders with true insurgent credentials

– Respected insurgent gone moderate– Often older leaders will have the incentive

• Highlight the potential for new roles for insurgents

What are the risks of negotiated ends to conflicts?

4

Why do peace agreements often fail?

Even after agreements have been reached they often fail

Why?

1) Agreements are often made with uncertainty about the other group’s intentions

2) Disarming or giving up territory makes groups vulnerable

3) Monitoring of the other group’s compliance is difficult

How can the guarantees in a peace deal be made credible?

5

Successful agreements require credible enforcement

Enforcement will be more credible if:

1) Groups make commitments credible with costly and irreversible signals (“tie their own hands”)

2) Disaggregate political power across the government, bureaucracy, and territory

3) Eliminate anarchy during disarmament through neutral 3rd party intervention

4) Use neutral 3rd parties to monitor compliance with the agreement and publicize violations

6

Some success factors in securing enduring peace

Commitments

Publicexpectations

Statecapacity

Economic growth

• Self-enforcing• Costly (credible)• Public

• Expectations of peace• Based in conflict history• Create social and

economic investment

• Military• Financial resources• Bureaucratic reach

• Raises opportunity costs of returning to war

• Strengthens states

Civil society• Cross-group (bridging)• Social goods focus• With funding and freedom

Globalinterest

• Balanced international investment

• International monitoring

7

Security sector reform matters

Military victoriesare more stable

“Spoiler” problem

• Negotiated settlements likely to relapse into civil war

• Wars ended by victory 2x more likely to stay settled

• Rebel victories are the most stable outcomes

• Spoilers gain little from a peace deal and have incentives to defect

• Defections are hard to punish by most 3rd parties

Security sector options

• Fend for themselves• Single-party control• Joint control arrangements• 3rd party aid/monitoring

8

Issues in power sharing pacts

Power sharing

pacts

• Distributes power through inclusive, partitioned, or pre-set policy making

• Can constitutionally protect groups or create incentives to promote inter-group cooperation

• Limits individual democracy by enshrining group rights

• Politically reinforces group identity and ethnic cleavages

• Encourages radicals to challenge moderates on ethnic issues (outflanking)

• Creates rigid and inefficient government

9

Issues in decentralization pacts

Decentralization pacts

• Provides autonomous territorial rights within a state framework

• Can help mitigate security dilemmas without full separation

• Offer of decentralization makes the commitment to peace more credible

• Customizes political rights within economies of scale

• Reinforces territorial identity and creates “beached diasporas”

• Decentralization arrangements are historically unstable, moving towards separation (Sudan, Iraq) or centralization (South Africa) over time

10

Challenges in building civil society

When it works well, civilsociety should:• Advocate for good policy• Provide social goods

when the state cannot

The Challenges

Advocacy is usually irrelevant in failed states that can’t produce or execute policy

In civil war, individuals may stop elective group participation because of shifting priorities & declining social trust

Recovering states can view civil society as a threat to their legitimacy