What can we project about the future of terrorism?

1998 Good Friday Agreement,Northern Ireland

Saudi exilekilled in Pakistan

May 2011

LTTE Defeated 2009Sri Lanka

Terrorist groups have rarely achieved any of their intended goals Al Qaeda is weaker, and its future is cloudy Yet hundreds of years of history suggests there is a

future Lots of major terrorist groups for whom death of bin

Laden had no impact

Many questions, few answers Incremental changes? Sudden new innovations like

9/11? What kinds of analysis help us anticipate future

events? Need to consider CT implications of:

1. Organizational Attributes2. Environmental Enablers

Leadership vs. Leaderless Resistance Anyone can join an ideologically-centered movement Anarchists, Left-Wing, Right-Wing, Environmentalists, al-

Qaida Madrid, London, Ft. Hood = al-Qaida transformation

milestones

Ideological Resonance New ideologies? Old grievances, new groups? What will the “5th wave” look like? Splinter groups?

Intersections of Crime and Terrorism

Organizational Learning Terrorists will learn, adapt Some will embrace the leaderless resistance model Terrorists will become more proficient

Shaping/Influencing Perceptions Priority effort for some groups

New Technologies Drone technology Electromagnetic Pulse weapons, directed energy beams,

high powered microwave (HPM) weapons Biotechnology Radiological sciences Cyber WMD

Grievances and Sources of Discontent Oppressive, corrupt, incompetent regimes Demographic changes (population growth, urbanization, etc.) Deep ethnic fissures (Sudan, Yemen, Kurdish regions,

Chechnya, etc.) Economic trends (globalization, resource distribution inequities,

etc.)

Facilitators Porous borders and zones with limited government influence Vibrant global trafficking networks

Transitioning States Governments and political systems in transition are often

distracted and disorganized Transition to democracy can be fragile, difficult, violent times

Our Capabilities Intelligence (especially HUMINT) is key Strategies must integrate kinetic and non-kinetic power

Their Capabilities Constrain communications, asset transactions Increase costs of organizing, operating Decrease appeal of ideological resonance Secure CBRN storage, waste facilities

Environmental Enablers Support transparency, legitimacy, development, reform Foster patience, resilience among transitioning states Rebuild, repair damaged infrastructure, human security

There is a long history of terrorism

There is a future for terrorism

It is a future that we can manage successfully Interagency coordination International cooperation Information, intelligence and law enforcement Moral and ethical legitimacy