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CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS iii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY iv

1. INTRODUCTION 1

2. AIMS & OBJECTIVES 3

3. LEGISLATION AND POLICY FRAMEWORK INFLUENCING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 3

3.1 Legislation 3

3.2 Purpose of the NMP 3

3.3 How the NMP achieves its Purpose 4

3.4 Regional Marine Planning 4

4. AQUACULTURE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS 5

4.1 Sector Analysis 5 4.1.1 Description of the aquaculture sector with particular reference to the west of Scotland 5 4.1.2 Key issues for marine planning 8 4.1.3 Interactions with other users 8 4.1.4 Environmental limits 9 4.1.5 Climate change 11 4.1.6 Key statistics and trends 12

4.2 Sector Development Forecast 17 4.2.1 Summary of NMP Scenario 17 4.2.2 Scenario Analysis 17

4.3 Opportunities and Challenges 18 4.3.1 Monitoring 19 4.3.2 Marketing 19 4.3.3 Diversification 20 4.3.4 Summary of Opportunities and Challenges 24

4.4 References 26

5. AQUACULTURE SOCIO-ECONOMICS 29

5.1 Sector Analysis 29 5.1.1 Brief summary description of the socio-economics of the sector relevant to the Clyde and Argyll regions 29 5.1.2 Key issues for marine planning 29 5.1.3 Interactions with other users 30 5.1.4 Environmental limits 30 5.1.5 Climate change 30 5.1.6 Key Statistics & Trends 30

5.2 Sector Development Forecast 31 5.2.1 Summary of NMP Scenario 31 5.2.2 Scenario Analysis 32

5.3 Opportunities and Challenges 32 5.3.1 Employment 32 5.3.2 Tourism 32 5.3.3 Seaweed Aquaculture 33 5.3.4 Rural/Isolated Communities 33 5.3.5 Debris 33 5.3.6 Summary of Opportunities & Challenges 34

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5.4 References 34

6. TOURISM & RECREATION 35

6.1 Sector Analysis 35 6.1.1 Brief summary description of the sector relevant to the Clyde and Argyll regions 35 6.1.2 Key issues for marine planning 35 6.1.3 Interactions with other users 37 6.1.4 Environmental limits 37 6.1.5 Climate change 37 6.1.6 Key Statistics and Trends 38

6.2 Sector Development Forecast 39 6.2.1 Summary of NMP Scenario 39 6.2.2 Scenario Analysis 39

6.3 Opportunities and Challenges 40 6.3.1 Sea Angling 40 6.3.2 Sailing 40 6.3.3 Wildlife Tourism 41 6.3.4 Cruising 41 6.3.5 Accommodation 42 6.3.6 Visitor Experience 42 6.3.7 Adventure Tourism 42 6.3.8 West Coast Marketing Strategy 42 6.3.9 Summary of Opportunities & Challenges 43

6.4 References 44

7. MARINE TRAFFIC 45

7.1 Sector Analysis 45 7.1.1 Brief summary description of the sector relevant to the Clyde and Argyll regions 45 7.1.2 Key Issues for Marine Planning 46 7.1.3 Interactions with other users 47 7.1.4 Environmental limits 48 7.1.5 Climate change 48 7.1.6 Key statistics and Trends 49

7.2 Sector Development Forecast 59 7.2.1 Summary of NMP Scenario 59 7.2.2 Scenario Analysis 60

7.3 Opportunities and Challenges 60 7.3.1 Commercial 60 7.3.2 Fishing 61 7.3.3 Pleasure 61 7.3.4 Ferry 62 7.3.5 Summary of Opportunities and Challenges 62

7.4 References 63

8. OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES: A STAKEHOLDER RISK PERSPECTIVE 64

8.1 Opportunities 64

8.2 Challenges 65

8.3 Risk Perception and Management 65 8.3.1 Mental Modelling 66 8.3.2 Stakeholder Engagement 67

8.4 Conclusions 69

8.5 References 69

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank Professor Kenny Black (SAMS), Dr Roy Clarke (University of Stirling Institute of Aquaculture), Dr Katie Gillham and colleagues in the Coastal and Marine Unit of SNH, and Chris Wallace (Marine Harvest Scotland Ltd) for helpful discussions, and for comments on a draft of the Aquaculture section of this report.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY MacArthur Green and UWS have been commissioned by Caledonian MacBrayne to prepare a report on economic development within the marine economy over the next 25 years. The report contemplates the opportunities and challenges that are likely to arise from various development scenarios when considered in the context of the Scottish National Marine Plan (NMP)1, which introduces marine planning to Scotlands seas for the first time. To enable useful analysis within the time and financial constraints of the project, it has been necessary to focus the scope of work to the regional seas areas of Argyll and Clyde and to three key sectors in these areas: aquaculture, tourism & recreation and marine traffic. The Scottish Governments Vision for the marine environment is to achieve Clean, healthy, safe productive and diverse seas; managed to meet the long term needs of nature and people. Achieving this vision will ultimately require stakeholders within the marine environment to work in partnership with each other for the common good. Caledonian MacBrayne is a key stakeholder in the west of Scotland with its origins dating back to 1851. The company provides lifeline ferry services and carries millions of people each year to and from Scotland's Hebridean and Clyde islands and remote peninsular communities. They have been, and remain, a major local employer, both on shore and at sea. Operating 475 sailings per day in summer and around 350 per day in winter, they carry in excess of 4.9 million passengers per annum. It is hoped that the following chapters on aquaculture, tourism & recreation, marine traffic and stakeholder engagement will provide a helpful contribution to the National Marine Plan, and in particular, the development of Regional Marine Plans in the Argyll and Clyde regional sea areas. The report identifies the following key conclusions for the four areas considered: Aquaculture Environmental Impact Key challenges include: reliance on only two major products (salmon and blue mussel); climate change impacts; planning constraints; aquafeed costs and availability of suitable constituents to maintain high nutritional quality of farmed finfish; diseases and parasites; impacts on local ecosystems and protected wildlife; and, the ability to compete with overseas producers.

Key opportunities that could overcome the challenges, and help to make Scottish aquaculture more productive, more resilient and more sustainable include:

Monitoring: Scope for strategic partnerships between stakeholders. There is an opportunity for ferry operators, such as Caledonian MacBrayne to embrace partnerships with aquaculture specialists, to collect and provide real time information on phytoplankton and zooplankton (including jellyfish) blooms, and to sample organisms for further analysis. A real time service, provided online, with a robust system of alerts could provide the aquaculture industry and marine regulators with tools to save fish from harm and contribute to maintaining the highest standards of fish health and welfare in finfish sea pen aquaculture.

Marketing: The Scottish marine environment is very clean with low contaminant levels and salmon produced have high omega-3 levels. These attributes lend themselves to a differentiation based competitive advantage which could be exploited to a greater degree through a strategic marketing strategy.

1 http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/03/6517/downloads#res-1 (1) https://www.Caledonian MacBrayne.co.uk/corporate

http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2015/03/6517/downloads#res-1

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Diversification: Opportunities for diversifying Scotlands aquaculture products exist which would help improve the overall resilience of the industry. Sea snails, sea urchins, sea weeds for food, chemicals and bio-gas production. Also, the development of a blue mussel hatchery in the west of Scotland would help boost the mussel farming industry with supply chain benefits.

Multi-trophic aquaculture: Through integrated planning and strategic partnerships, there is scope to develop multi-trophic aquaculture. This would enhance local production, protect the environment and increase sustainability.

R&D into aquafeeds: With uncertainty over the sustainability of many lower trophic level fisheries and a rapid increase in global prices of fish meal and fish oil, it is important to develop aquafeed formulations that reduce the need to import marine products but continue to provide the health benefits of high omega-3 levels in Scottish farmed salmon.

Aquaculture Socio-economic Impact Key challenges include: the development of a more Sustainable Livelihood Approach (SLA) to include development of human, physical, social and environmental capital; overcoming issues of marine planning to allow for greater job creation and the positive impacts that can have in the community; the potential reduction in employment from technological advances and increased mechanisation; and, the negative impacts of debris and rubbish a small fraction of which may originate from aquaculture facilities. Some key opportunities that could overcome these challenges and help to improve the socio-economic impact of aquaculture: Job Creation: Continued job creation, youth employment and skills training with the expansion

of the aquaculture sector and the positive impacts that has on rural communities. Sustainable Livelihood Approach: The inclusion of a SLA approach towards the growth and

further development of sustainable aquaculture as part of the Scottish Governments Ministerial Group on Sustainable Aquaculture (MGSA) and the industries 2020 targets to ensure long-term sustainable development of the sector.

Economic Diversification: Diversification of the communities economy was seen as an important benefit allowing the opportunity to move away from an over reliance on tourism.

Development and growth of strong rural communities that can help maintain a thriving tourist industry. Also the presence of aquaculture in