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Transcript of ® The New Craft of Intelligence What Should the T Be Doing to the I in IT? Robert David Steele...
®
The New Craft of IntelligenceWhat Should the T Be Doing to the I in IT?
Robert David Steele<[email protected]>
Federal Convention on Emerging TechnologiesA Forum on Homeland Security
Las Vegas, 9 January 2002
®
9-11: Systemic Failure
®
Let’s Crush the Box
®
Conflict Specifics for 1995-2000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000HIC Levels Off
LIC Business is Good
Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof
High-Intensity Conflict Low-Intensity Conflict Internal War
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman
® Conflict Facts for 200026 LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman
®
External “Issues”
Complex Emergencies29 Countries
Refugees/Displaced67 Countries
Food Security27 Countries
Child Soldiers42 Countries
Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising
Peacekeeping Forces18 UN, 20 Other
Landmines62 Countries
Torture Common94 Countries
Corruption Common78 Countries
Censorship Very High63 Countries
*State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map
®
10%
50%
25%
15%
State vs State
State vs Nation
Inter-Ethnic Tribal
Gang Wars, Genocide,Decolonization
Pentagon/IC Focused on 10% of the Threat
® Four Different Threats to America
PHYSICAL
STEALTH,
PRECISION
TARGETING
NATURAL
STEALTH,
RANDOM
TARGETING
CYBER -
STEALTH,
DATABASE
TARGETING
IDEO -
STEALTH,
MASS
TARGETING
GUERRILLAWAR
CULTURALWAR
HIGH TECH
BRUTES
(BIG WAR)
LOW TECH
BRUTES
(GANGS)
HIGH TECH
SEERS
(HOME)
LOW TECH
SEERS
(POOR)
MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS
POWER BASE
KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY
TERRORISMECONOMICWAR
®Intelligence Failure in
Global Collection
Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*28 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
® Intelligence Failure in All-Source Processing
50% Less CostlyM
ore
Sat
isfy
ing
SIGINT
OSINT
0% 50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
11
®
PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURETunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers
ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTUREPower, Financial, Comms, Transportation
MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELSOff-base power, down-links, antennas
ECONOMIC BLAHSNo Fly No Spend No Hire
DATACorruption
Public Health
Vulnerabilities on the
Home Front
®
Individual as Threat
and Target
State as Threat
and Target
Defense Against Weapons Systems “Over There”
Defense of InfrastructureHere at Home
Offense Against Fixed Ground
Offense Against Distributed Groups
OLDNEW
PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR
GOVERNMENT IS PRIMARY ACTOR
®Inside Out Targeting
Homeland Security First!Leadership
Exposed and Often
Ignorant
Infrastructure Wide Open,
Especially Data
Population Completely Vulnerable
Military Largely Irrelevant for
Homeland Defense
®
Civil Center Of GravityState & Local Government, Non-State Actors
InformationInformationWarfareWarfare
Information Information PeacekeepingPeacekeeping
Open Open Source Source
IntelligenceIntelligence
EducationEducationElectronicElectronic Security & Counterintelligence
Big Secret Not Secret
PrivatePrivate SectorSector!
INFORMATION INFORMATION COMMONSCOMMONS
®
Open source information is more complex than secrets…
New Intelligence Paradigm
SI/TK
Selective Importation
System High/Firewall
Just Enough, Just in Time
Default to Validated OSINT
SI/TK
Validated OSINT
OUT IN
®
TIME IMPACT SHORT
TIME IMPACT
LONG
MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL
EQUITIES
SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION
EQUITIES
LEADERS DECIDE
PEOPLE DECIDE
TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL
SECRET SOURCES & METHODS
BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING
OPEN SOURCES & METHODS
OBVIOUS DETAIL
OBSCURE DETAIL
OLD
NEW
21st Century “C4I”
®
Policy Intelligence
Military Intelligence
Law Enforcement Intelligence
Coalition Intelligence
Business Intelligence/OSINT
Mass & Niche Media Intelligence
Citizen Intelligence--Intelligence “Minuteman”
Basic, Advanced, & Corporate Education
Home Front and International“Virtual” Intelligence Community
International
Coalition
Options
INFORMATION UNIVERSERelevant and Irrelevant -- Open and Secret
Decision-MakerIntegration, Reflection & Decision
RANDOM
SECRET
EXISTING INPUT
normal staff process,
counterparts, family/friends
OPEN SOURCEINPUT
Internet &private sector fee-for-service
Information Management StaffCollection Management, Fusion, Analysis & Presentation
FIND (free), GET (free), BUY (cheap), TASK (costly)
®
1
2
Ops-Logs-Intel-Real World Disconnects!
®Revolution Needed in
Presidential LeadershipPresidentCongress Judiciary
Chief of Staff
Director-General forNational Policy
Director-General forGlobal Strategy
Director-General forNational Intelligence
Director-General forNational Research
Director of ClassifiedIntelligence (DCI)
Chairman, NationalIntelligence Council
Director, Global Knowledge Foundation
Ove
rsig
h t A
u tho
r ity
®
New Craft of Intelligence
I
Lessons of History
II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence
IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
®
New Craft of Intelligence I
I
Lessons of History
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc. Narrowly focused!• Digital History Project
• $5M per year
• State/Library of Congress
• NSA Processing
• Digital History project will, each year, digitize essential Chinese, Islamic, and such other foreign language historical, political, social, economic, cultural, and related information, as needed to create a foundation for rapidly translating, visualizing, and modeling critical national security information.
®
New Craft of Intelligence II
II
Global Coverage
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
• Global Knowledge Network
• $100M per year
• CINCs, State, Commerce
• NSA Processing
• NGO Data Warehouse and Network ($10M), Global Coverage Network of Operational Planning Groups ($10M), four regional OSINT collection, translation, and digitization centers ($40M), Digital Marshall Plan for Third World ($20M), OSINT Training ($10M), and Future Intelligence Collaborative Environment ($10M).
®
New Craft of Intelligence III
III
National Intelligence
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
• Homeland intelligence
• $1.5B a year
• Governors Have Lead
• FBI, State, INS, Army
• NSA Processing
• Homeland Security Intelligence Program (HSIP) adds $3B per year to National Foreign Intelligence Program (NFIP). Funds Global Coverage ($1.5B/yr), Homeland Intelligence ($1.5B/yr) to include national and state intelligence centers, two new FBI divisions (economic espionage and counterterrorism).
®
New Craft of Intelligence IV
IV
Spies & Secrecy
Narrowly focused!• Foreign Intelligence & CI
• Fences $30B per year
• DGNI, Consolidated NFIP
• Get serious!
• Foreign intelligence and counterintelligence must be restructured via a National Security Act of 2002 with distinct agencies for collection, processing, analysis and geospatial information, new programs for counterintelligence, coalition intelligence and homeland intelligence, CINC-driven ground truth battalions and information peacekeeping programs, transfer of covert action to USSOCOM, elevation and expansion of NIC to include SIOs for states, new DGNI above DCI.
®
Global Distributed Knowledge
National Distributed Knowledge
Government Knowledge
Intelligence Community
1B 10B 100B 1 TRILLION
Real World Dollars for Burden Sharing
®
COALITION COMMANDER & STAFF
INTELLIGENCE METHODS
•Requirements Definition
•Collection Management
•Source Discovery & Validation
•Multi-Source Fusion
•Compelling Timely Presentation
•Evaluation, Feedback, New Requirements
•Operational Security
OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION
•Internet
•Commercial Online (Fee for Access)
•Gray Literature
•Subject-Matter Experts
•Commercial Geospatial Information
•Direct Ground and/or Aerial Reconnaissance
•Complex Human and/or Technical Services
Create Common Open Source Intelligence
for Multi-Laternal Sharing
Securely Exploit Bi-Lateral Classified Intelligence
from Nations
Emerging NATO (SACLANT) Approach
®
CINC
G-2 G-3
PSYOP
POLAD
PAO
CIVILAFFAIRS
PROVOSTMARSHAL
COMBATENGINEERS
Exchange with People
Exchange with Embassies
Exchange with Civil Authorities
Exchange with Business Community
Exchange with
MediaOSINT “NET”
Practical Value for Government Operations
Exchange with Allies and NGOs
®
Homeland Security Intelligence
• Single national center, 24/7 operational intelligence, geospatial time “plot” (Army)
• Individual “community intelligence centers” for every Governor and 250K Mayor (Guard)
• Web-based “virtual intelligence community” for entry and evaluation of citizen inputs
• Web-based distributed database access for secure exploitation of credit, travel, other non-state, LEA, and USG watchlist databases
®
Threats to the “I” from the “T”
Errors & Omissions
Fire
Water
Dishonest Insiders
Disgruntled Insiders
OutsiderVirus
®GEOSPATIAL 101: MUST HAVE MAPS
• 10 meter synoptic wide area imagery from SPOT Image Corporation
• 1 meter precision urban imagery from Space Imaging Corporation
• <1 meter precision Digital Terrain Elevation Data (DTED) from shuttle mission
• Decades worth of data extraction at the 1:10,000 to the 1:100,000 level from Russian military maps
®GEOSPATIAL 101: GPS ID FOR DATA• Every building, every bridge, every tunnel, every critical infrastructure element.
• Every mobility platform, both owned and rented--especially latter.
• Every intelligence report must include GPS information for start, phase points, end points, as well as time and date stamping, both for the described event and for the report itself.
• From this will come early warning and pattern analysis gains.
®
TECHNICAL HUMAN
III - External InformationEXTERNAL
INTERNAL
OrganizationalMemory System
DataConversion
DataVisualization
HeterogeneousSearch & Retrieval
TripReports
Churning(Rotationals)
LocalKnowledge
Expert Hires“Just Enough,Just in Time”
Internal Reporting
Vendor Reporting
Government Monitoring
Customer Monitoring
Environmental Monitoring
Technology Monitoring
CHUNKS(Intellectual Property)
PERSONALITY(Insight/Intuition)
Patents, Etc.
Trade Secrets
Meta-Data
Knowledge Capital™
Rolodexes/E-Mail
Personal Brand
Out-Sourcing ofInformationProcessing
Project/GroupManagement
Training
BusinessIntelligenceInstitutionalized
E-Commerce
Automated Analysis
Cell #
IV - Organizational Intelligence
I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work
®
Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form
Automated Extraction of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Standardizing and Converting Data Formats
Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data
Automated Foreign Language
Translation
Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information
Detection of Alert Situations
Clustering and Linking of
Related Data
Statistical Analysis to Reveal
Anomalies
Detection of Changing Trends
Interactive Search and Retrieval of
Data
Graphic and Map-Based Visualization
of Data
Modeling and Simulations
Collaborative Work
Notetaking and Organizing Ideas
Structured Argument Analysis
Desktop Publishing and
Word Processing
Production of Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Revision Tracking and Realtime Group
Review
Finished Intelligence and Reporting
A
B
C
®Desktop Software Choices
PlanPlan
ExtendExtend
ReportReport
ShareShare
OSALAT
Copernic CollectCollect
Excaliber
Topic
Analyst WorkbenchIdentifier, SIFT,
OnTopic, Labrador
GMS, Athens
Aerotext
Intelligent MinerFor Text
AnalyzeAnalyze
Content Extractor
Information Portal,Comprendium
ClearForest Suite
CrimeLink
Analyst Notebook
**C-4-U Scout
**CI Spider
**Knowledge.Works
**Market Signal Analyzer
**E-Sense
**Corporate Intelligence Service
**TextAnalyst**Plumtree Corporate Portal
**Powerize
**Strategy!
**Wincite
**WisdomBuilder
** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report
Groove?
EDGE?
MindMap?
SYSTRAN+?
Other CATALYST
Elements?
®
Focus of Effort
Strategic Forecasting10% Need, 40% Cost
Primary Research & Experts on Demand20% Need, 30% Cost
Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now)30% Need, 20% Cost
Daily/Weekly Reports40% Need, 10% Cost
®
SHOW ME THE MONEY!Striking a New Balance
TECHNICAL $$
HUMINT $$
OSINT $$
LIFERS
MID-CAREER HIRES
1-179 DAY/YR TEMPORARY EXPERTS
IC MANNING IC DOLLARS
UNCLASSIFIED
SECRET
TS
IC PRODUCTION
®
OPG VPN
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Virtual Intelligence Community Networks
®
Intelligent “IT” $100B/Year Marketplace
Federal smart IT and OSINT:
>$5B/year
US Corporate business
intelligence: >15B/year
State & Local smart IT and intel: >$5B/year
Global smart IT and
shared intel: >$75B/year
Value of Common “I” to
Generic “T”:Priceless
®
References
• ON INTELLIGENCE: Spies and Secrecy in an Open World (495 pages, amazon.com)
• The New Craft of Intelligence: Personal, Public, & Political (forthcoming in April)
• www.council-on-intelligence.org (pointers)
• www.oss.net/White.html (this/other briefs)
• www.oss.net/OSS02 (the global network)
®
HUMINT
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS
OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION
OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
T3
T2
T1
®
The Way Ahead
• National Security Act• DGNI in WH with three
subordinates:– D/Classified Intel.– Chairman, NIC (++)– D/$1.5B OSINT
• Homeland Security Intelligence Program– 24/7 OpIntel Center– State & City Centers
• NRO=Technical Collection• NIMA=Geospatial/USGS• NSA=Processing/ICMAP++• CIA=Analysis/ExpertNet• FBI adds econ/CT Divisions• New Clandestine Service• State/JFCOM new roles
– Digital Marshall Plan/FICE++– Ground Truth Battalions
®
The New Craft of Intelligence What Should the T Be Doing to the I in IT?
Robert David Steele<[email protected]>
Federal Convention on Emerging TechnologiesA Forum on Homeland Security
Las Vegas, 9 January 2002