The IAEA EMRAS programme has compared predictions of various models, to each other and to site data....
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How well do tools predict The IAEA EMRAS programme has compared predictions of various models, to each other and to site data. Model-model intercomparison showed considerable variation between models www.ceh.ac.uk/PROTECT Pu-239
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Transcript of The IAEA EMRAS programme has compared predictions of various models, to each other and to site data....
www.ceh.ac.uk/PROTECT
How well do tools predict
The IAEA EMRAS programme has compared predictions of various models, to each other and to site data.
Model-model intercomparison showed considerable variation between models
Pu-239
www.ceh.ac.uk/PROTECT
How well do tools predict
The IAEA EMRAS programme has compared predictions of various models, to each other and to site data
Model-model intercomparison showed considerable variation between models Missing value guidance approach often give
comparatively high estimates (often for little studied organisms)
‘National’ (site specific) data
Perch Lake Canada
H-3, Cs-137, Co-60, Sr-90 data for wide range of freshwater biota
PerchLake
Ottawa River
Built-up Area
Chalk River Laboratories
Waste Management Area
Legend
Lake / River
Road
CRL Boundary
Stream0 1 2
kilometres
Sudbury
Ottawa
TorontoLake Ontario
Lake Erie
Lake Huron
CRL
Cesium-137 in Aquatic MacrophytesFreshwater Primary Producers
Model
Mo
de
led
-to
-Me
as
ure
d 13
7 Cs
Co
nce
ntr
ati
on
0.000001
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
Emergent MacrophytesFree-floating MacrophytesFloat-leafed MacrophytesSubmergent MacrophytesMinimum Measured (free-floating)Maximum Measured (free-floating)Minimum Measured (floating-leafed)Maximum Measured (free-floating)
Minimum Measured (submergent)Maximum Measured (submergent)
Freshwater Fishes
Model
Mo
de
led
-to
-Me
as
ure
d 90 S
r C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
0.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
Brown BullheadCyprinidsPumpkinseedsMinimum Measured (bullhead)Maximum Measured (bullhead)Minimum Measured (cyprinids)Maximum Measured (cyprinids)
Minimum Measured (pumpkinseed)Maximum Measured (pumpkinseed)
Strontium-90 in Freshwater Fish
Aquatic Mammals
Model
Mo
de
led
-to
-Me
as
ure
d
60 C
o C
on
ce
ntr
ati
on
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
Star-nosed MoleAmerican Water Shrew
Cobalt-60 in Freshwater Mammals
Chernobyl Case Study
www.ceh.ac.uk/PROTECT
www.ceh.ac.uk/PROTECT
www.ceh.ac.uk/PROTECT
www.ceh.ac.uk/PROTECT
Overview Hopefully have appreciation of how wholebody
radionuclide concentrations are estimated in available tools
There are some short comings in approaches - not least data availability - but to cover wide range of organism-radionuclide combinations currently ‘best we can do’ Can be considerable variability between models (justify
selection) Lack of equilibrium
Probably – but if sufficient data should reflect ‘reality’ (e.g. Pu will never reach equilibrium)
www.ceh.ac.uk/PROTECT
Overview Some radionuclides are heterogeneously
distributed throughout the body Sr (bone), Am (bone & liver), I (thyroid), Ru (kidney) Uncertainty this adds to dose organ should be
assessed (... available effects data are for wholebody dose rates?)
If required dynamic models available or scope to adapt from human assessment models
If predictions are required spatially - relatively easy to use parameters from models such as ERICA in a GIS
www.ceh.ac.uk/PROTECT
IAEA handbook on radionuclide transfer parameters for wildlife
Technical report series Final draft submitted to IAEA On-line database for collation Will be maintained and used
to provide annual update tables Database has also been used
to collate data for ICRP
framework (TG73 report in-press)
