® The C4I Revolution: Smart Mobs, Dumb Organizations, & Asymmetric Warfare--Why Nothing America Has...
Transcript of ® The C4I Revolution: Smart Mobs, Dumb Organizations, & Asymmetric Warfare--Why Nothing America Has...
®
The C4I Revolution:Smart Mobs, Dumb Organizations, &
Asymmetric Warfare--Why Nothing America Has Done Improves National Security
Robert David SteeleOSS.NET
9 January 2003San Antonio, Texas
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9-11: Systemic Failure
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9-11 & Intelligence: the Boiling Pot
• Collection: – Satellites deaf
– Spies incompetent
• Data entry: FBI still in pencil & paper mode
• Translation: lack of personnel or funds
• Processing: no single central OpIntel “plot”
• Analysis– Did not connect the
dots (dots found to have been known)
– Marginally-qualified analysts (no language, culture, history)
• Liaison: “business as usual,” no demands
• Mind-set: muddled
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9-11 & Policy: The Oblivious Frog
• World Trade Center 1st Bombing– Sidelined to law
enforcement
– Documents not translated
– Ignored bin Laden’s open declaration of war
– No change to visa or border security process
• Global Terrorism– Ignored warnings on
cockpit and airport safety (industry against)
– Accepted bombings of 2 embassies, a barracks, and a naval vessel as “cost of doing business”
– Accepted lack of action by other nations
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Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*29 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
Global Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding
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50% Less CostlyM
ore
Sat
isfy
ing
SIGINT
OSINT
0% 50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
Global Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
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World War III Players
Bacteria
Nation-States
Gangs
Companies
Citizens
® Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
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Ethnic Fault Lines 200018 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
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Water & War
Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
Hyper-Arid
Sub-Humid
Arid
Semi-Arid
Water Pollution
1
2
34
5
6
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Global Threats to Local Survival
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
Complex Emergencies32 Countries
Refugees/Displaced66 Countries
Food Security33 Countries
Child Soldiers41 Countries
Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising
Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**
Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**
Corruption Common80 Countries
Censorship Very High62 Countries
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Asymmetric War
• Whatever it takes--– Fight dirty
– Fight smart
– Sabotage
– Bug bombs
– Electronic attack
– Anthrax = panic
– “Ju jitsu” warfare
• $500K = $100B loss
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PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURETunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers
ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTUREPower, Financial, Comms, Transportation
MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELSOff-base power, down-links, antennas
ECONOMIC BLAHSNo Fly No Spend No Hire
DATACorruption
Public Health
Vulnerabilities on the
Home Front
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Individual as Threat
and Target
State as Threat
and Target
Defense Against Weapons Systems “Over There”
Defense of InfrastructureHere at Home
Offense Against Fixed Ground
Offense Against Distributed Groups
OLDNEW
PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR
STATE IS PRIMARY ACTOR
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Unbalanced Power
Smart Mobs• Liberated Thinking• Nomadic Connections• Global Grid Power• Swarmed Resources• 24/7 Always On• Geospatial Foundation• Reputation is Power
Dumb Organizations• Stove-Pipe Drones• Hard Copy Files• File Clerks Weak Link• Locked-Up Resources• 9-to-5 Compartments• Legal Foundation• Power is Reputation
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Dealing With Smart Mobs
Does Not Work• Nuclear Bombs• Aircraft Carriers• Tanks & Artillery• Secret Satellites• Not So Secret Spies• Young Kid Analysts• Political Bluffing
Could Possibly Work• Deep Understanding• Financial Incentives• Focused Education• Coalition Intelligence• Coalition Special Forces• Tracking Individuals• Killing Individuals
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TECHNICAL HUMAN
III - External InformationEXTERNAL
INTERNAL
OrganizationalMemory System
DataConversion
DataVisualization
HeterogeneousSearch & Retrieval
TripReports
Churning(Rotationals)
LocalKnowledge
Expert Hires“Just Enough,Just in Time”
Internal Reporting
Vendor Reporting
Government Monitoring
Customer Monitoring
Environmental Monitoring
Technology Monitoring
CHUNKS(Intellectual Property)
PERSONALITY(Insight/Intuition)
Patents, Etc.
Trade Secrets
Meta-Data
Knowledge Capital™
Rolodexes/E-Mail
Personal Brand
Out-Sourcing ofInformationProcessing
Project/GroupManagement
Training
BusinessIntelligenceInstitutionalized
E-Commerce
Automated Analysis
Cell #
IV - Organizational Intelligence
I - Knowledge Management II - Collaborative Work
C4I Big PictureFour processing quadrants
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Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form
Automated Extraction of Data Elements From
Text and Images
Standardizing and Converting Data Formats
Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data
Automated Foreign Language
Translation
Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information
Detection of Alert Situations
Clustering and Linking of
Related Data
Statistical Analysis to Reveal
Anomalies
Detection of Changing Trends
Interactive Search and Retrieval of
Data
Graphic and Map-Based Visualization
of Data
Modeling and Simulations
Collaborative Work
Notetaking and Organizing Ideas
Structured Argument Analysis
Desktop Publishing and
Word Processing
Production of Graphics, Videos and
Online Briefings
Revision Tracking and Realtime Group
Review
Finished Intelligence and Reporting
A
B
C
Processing Desktop:
Generic Analytic Functionalities
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Processing DesktopNo Easy Solutions
PlanPlan
ExtendExtend
ReportReport
ShareShare
OSALAT
Copernic CollectCollect
Excaliber
Topic
Analyst WorkbenchIdentifier, SIFT,
OnTopic, Labrador
GMS, Athens
Aerotext
Intelligent MinerFor Text
AnalyzeAnalyze
Content Extractor
Information Portal,Comprendium
ClearForest Suite
CrimeLink
Analyst Notebook
**C-4-U Scout
**CI Spider
**Knowledge.Works
**Market Signal Analyzer
**E-Sense
**Corporate Intelligence Service
**TextAnalyst**Plumtree Corporate Portal
**Powerize
**Strategy!
**Wincite
**WisdomBuilder
** Previously reviewed in the Fuld & Co. Software Report
Groove?
EDGE?
MindMap?
SYSTRAN+?
Other CATALYST
Elements?
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New C4I Strategic Priorities
• Open Source Collection• Multi-Media Processing• Analytic Toolkits• Analytic Tradecraft• Defensive Security• Leadership• Training• Culture
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Administration’s Shortfalls
• Unbalanced Staff• Failed Intelligence• Maginot Line Military• No Counterintelligence• Education Broken• National IT Fragmented• Public Health Broken• Water - No Strategy• Energy - No Strategy
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White House Staff Upgrade
D irec to r G e n era lN a tio na l P o licy
D irec to r o fC lassif ied In te llig en ce
C h a irm a n, N a tion a lIn te llige nce C o u nc il
D irec to r , G lob a lIn fo rm a tio n F ou nd a tion
D irec to r G e n era lIn te llige nce
D irec to r G e n era lS tra tegy
D irec to r G e n era lN a tio n a l R e sea rch
C h ie f o f S ta ff
P res ide n t
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Security Shortfalls
• Intelligence Failed, Not Changing the Cultures
• Heavy Metal Military, Useless 90% of the Time
• No National Counterintelligence Agency or State & Local Counterintelligence, Private Sector Uncovered
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Prosperity Shortfalls
• Education and IT fragmented (content, connectivity, coordination, C4 security on Net)
• Public health unfunded, children falling by wayside
• No water or energy strategy
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South America Today15% of the Conflict, <5% of the Budget?
GOOD BAD UGLY
Costa Rica Haiti Mexico
Chile Colombia Brazil
Uraguay Venezuela Cuba
El Salvador Argentina All Others
Culture Violence Poverty
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OASCTF
StrategistsAdvise Policy
ConstabularyStabilize Failed States
Domestic ThreatsWater, Food, Health
Citizen EducationRegional Network
Force on ForceTrain Local Services
Electronic SecuritySet Standards, Stand Watch
Small WarsControl Territory
Ground TruthObserve with Warrior’s Eyes
Regional Agile Forces for Peace
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Regional Intelligence Center
OSINTHUMINT
IMINTSIGINT
Deputy for CollectionCountry B
DigitizationTranslation
VisualizationAnalytic Support
Deputy for ProcessingCountry C
WarningEstimativeCountries
Issues
Deputy for AnalysisCountry D
Chief of CenterCountry A
Deputy for CounterintelligenceCountry E
Deputy for Covert ActionCountry F
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Necessary Changes in EmphasisStriking a better balance
• Must strike a better balance between– technical (-) and human assets (+)
– secret (-) and open sources (+)
– hard power (-) and soft power (+)
– reaction (-) and prevention (+)
– unilateral (-) and truly multilateral combined operations (+)
®Proposed Strategy: 1 + iii:
Need huge increase in “soft power” capabilities
BIG WAR SMALL WAR OOTW REAR AREA
Base Rights Small Wars Water Intelligence
Protect Canal Constabulary Food Border Patrol
Ground Truth Health Port Security
1 ii i
Electronic
Protect Oil
Training Environment
Public HealthEducation
50% 15% 20% 15%
250B vs. 400B 75B vs 20B 100B vs. 20B 75B vs. 38B
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Contact Information
• Robert David Steele• OSS.NET• POB 369• Oakton, VA 22124• Email: [email protected]• Voice: (703) 242-1700• Fax: (703) 242-1711• Web: www.oss.net