© T. M. Whitmore TODAY Population Geography of LA Growth Fertility Mortality Age structure...
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Transcript of © T. M. Whitmore TODAY Population Geography of LA Growth Fertility Mortality Age structure...
© T. M. Whitmore
TODAY
•Population Geography of LAGrowthFertilityMortalityAge structure
•Urbanization in LASpatial patternsCauses & consequences
© T. M. Whitmore
Population (2007 estimates)•Latin America & Caribbean ~ 569 m
(8.7% of global total)
•USA ~ 302 m (4.6 % of global total)
•World ~ 6,525 m
•Caribbean ~ 40 m
•Central America (with Mexico) ~ 148 m
•Mexico ~ 106.5 m
•South America (with Brazil ~ 381 m)
•Brazil ~ 189 m
•Mexico + Brazil ~ 295.5 m (> ½ of LA; ~ USA)
© T. M. Whitmore
Demography: Growth related
•Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)Meaning of “crude” in demographyCrude Birth Rate (CBR): live
births/1000 pop in a given yearCrude Death Rate (CDR):
deaths/1000 pop in a given yearCBR - CDR = RNI
typically given as %/yrassumes no net migration in a given year
© T. M. Whitmore
Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)/yr
•Latin America ~ 1.5%/yr
•USA ~ 0.6%/yr
•World ~ 1.2%/yr
•More Developed World ~ 0.1%/yr
•Lesser developed world ~ 1.5% -
1.8%/yr
•Historical trends in LA: 1950s - 1980s
Declining but less rapidly now
© T. M. Whitmore
Population projections for 2025
•Latin America 700 m
•USA 350 m
•World 7490 m
•Caribbean 48 m
•Mexico 129 m
•South America 465 m
•Brazil 229 m
•Mexico + Brazil 358 m (~ = USA)
© T. M. Whitmore
Rate of Natural Increase II• Caribbean ~ 1.1%/yr• Central America (including Mexico) ~ 1.8%• Mexico ~ 1.7 %/yr• South America (including Brazil) ~ 1.5%/yr
Brazil ~ 1.4%/yr• Notable extremes
HIGH (~ 2.5%/yr): Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Haiti Bolivia
LOW (~ 1%/yr or less): Costa Rica Cuba, Puerto Rico Uruguay, Chile, Argentina
© T. M. Whitmore
Total Fertility Rate (TFR)•= Average total number of births to a
woman in her lifetime (superior to CBR)
•~ 2.1 => parents only replacing themselves (called replacement level fertility)need the extra 0.1 due to childhood
deaths
© T. M. Whitmore
Fertility (TFR)•Latin America ~ 2.5•USA ~ 2.1•World ~ 2.7•More Developed World ~ 1.6•Lesser developed world ~ 2.9 - 3.3 •Caribbean ~ 2.5•Central America (including Mexico) ~
2.7•Mexico ~ 2.4•South America (including Brazil) ~
2.4•Brazil ~ 2.3
© T. M. Whitmore
Fertility II•Notable extremes
HIGH (TFR > 3)Guatemala (> 4), Honduras, Nicaragua
Haiti (>4.5)Bolivia, Ecuador
LOW (< 2.5)Costa Rica, MexicoCuba, Puerto RicoUruguay, Brazil, Argentina
© T. M. Whitmore
Death related (mortality)• Mortality
Measured by “life expectancy at birth” (Eo)
= AVERAGE projected span of life at the date for a pop
• Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)# deaths of infants (< 1yr)/1000 live
births in a given yr
© T. M. Whitmore
Life expectancy at birth (Eo) • Latin America ~ 73 yrs• USA ~ 78• World ~ 68• More Developed World ~ 77• Lesser developed world ~ 64 – 66• Caribbean ~ 71• Central America (including Mexico) ~ 74• Mexico ~ 75• South America (including Brazil) ~ 72• Brazil ~ 72• Individual extremes
© T. M. Whitmore
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)• Closely correlated with Eo & very diagnostic of
social underdevelopment and poverty• Latin America ~ 24 (per 1000 live births -or
2.9%)• USA ~ 6.5• World ~ 52• More Developed World ~ 6.0• Lesser developed world ~ 57 – 61• Caribbean ~ 38• Central America (including Mexico) ~ 23• Mexico ~ 21• South America (including Brazil) ~ 24• Brazil ~ 27• Individual extremes
© T. M. Whitmore
Population age structure - youth
•Youthful pops: % of pop < 15 years old•USA 20%•World 28%
Lesser developed World 31% - 34%More Developed World ~ 17%
•Latin America 30%Central America with Mexico 33%Caribbean 28%South America 29%
•Latin American extremes & consequences
© T. M. Whitmore
Population age structure - aged
•Aged pops: (> 65)
•USA 12%
•World 7%Lesser developed World 5-6%
•Latin America 6%Central America with Mexico 5%Caribbean 8%South America 6%
•Latin American extremes & consequences
© T. M. Whitmore
Population age structures•Population pyramid
•Concept of dependency ratio(pop aged 0-15 + pop aged 65+) *100/ Pop age 15-65
•USA dependency ratio100*(20% +12%)/68% = 47
•Developing world dependency ratio100*(34% + 5%)/61% = 64
•Latin America dependency ratio100*(30% + 6%)/64% = 56
© T. M. Whitmore
© T. M. Whitmore
Geographic distribution of population
•High density zones
•Low density zonesSouth America’s “empty heart”Arid zones in N Mexico & Southern
Cone
© T. M. Whitmore
Urbanization •Proportion of a country’s pop living in
citiesWorld = 49%Global South = 42-43%Global North = 75%USA = 79%LA = 76%
•Extremes in LA
•Large city urbanization in LA (% in cities > 1 million)
© T. M. Whitmore
Urbanization II•Mega-cities
Emerging Megalopolis zonesCentral MexicoSouth Brazil triangle & Río de la Plata
•Concept of primacySingle city in a country that
dominates in pop, culture, economic development, etc.
Examples: Santo DomingoGuatemala CityMexico CityLima
LA cities in World’s top 100(19 of the top 100)
Lima10 x larger
>20 x larger >20 x larger>15 x larger
© T. M. Whitmore
Roots of urban growth•Demographic
R—to—Urban migrationNatural increase
•EconomicIndustrializationRural stagnation
•Organizations Banks and governments
© T. M. Whitmore
Benefits from urban growth•Efficient provision of social services
•Cities are centers of information flow and knowledge
•Concentrated (and better educated?) labor pool
•Physical infrastructure often better
•Cities concentrate “human capital”
•Cities are a huge internal markets
•Easier linkages between industries
•Cities are often “better off”
© T. M. Whitmore
Urban growth I•Housing
First destination of poor migrants is the inner city slums
Elite often still in posh neighborhoods in inner city
Often close juxtaposition of rich and poor
© T. M. WhitmoreElite housing, Santo Domingo
Mexico City country club
Mexican stock exchange
© T. M. WhitmoreWealthy homes in Morelia, Mexico
© Pearson Education – Prentice HallElite house Cuidad Juarez
© W.H. Freeman & Co.
© T. M. Whitmore
Urban growth II•Planned developments•Self-help (often squatter) “slum” hous
ingCalled: favelas (Brazil), colonias
proletarias, cuidades perdidas, etc.Seen as places of permanence25-40% of total pop in some citiesInitially settlements lack
infrastructureA main characteristic is
improvement•New purchased housing
Planned new housing area in Mexico City
Nezahualcoyotl:Planned housing area in Mexico City
Nezahualcoyotl - 3 millon people
Squatter housing in Mexico City
Mexico City inner city
© Pearson Education – Prentice HallSquatters outside Lima
© W.H. Freeman & Co.
© T. M. WhitmoreSelf-help housing, Santo Domingo, DR
© T. M. WhitmoreSelf-help housing, Santo Domingo
© T. M. Whitmore
Self-help housing, Santo Domingo
© T. M. WhitmoreSelf-help housing, Santo Domingo
© T. M. WhitmoreSelf-help housing, Lima
© T. M. WhitmoreSelf-help housing, Saltillo, Mexico
Return migrant (remittance funded) housing in Ecuador© Brad Jokish
© T. M. Whitmore
© T. M. WhitmoreFormal sector housing, Saltillo, Mexico
© T. M. WhitmoreFormal sector housing, Tegucigalpa
© T. M. WhitmoreFormal sector housing, Tegucigalpa
300+ low income homes in Ixtapaluca, Mexico - complex has more than 10,000!
© T. M. Whitmore
Urban growth III•Subsidy and Sink effects
•Congestion
•Pollution
•Loss of urban open space
•Poor provision of basic services
•Export of problems
•Poverty generally
•Employment not always good
Mexico City on a rare clear day
More typical Mexico City day
© T. M. WhitmoreUrban water, Santo Domingo
© T. M. WhitmoreUrban water, Santo Domingo
© T. M. WhitmoreSubsidence in Mexico City
© T. M. Whitmore
Subsidence in Mexico City