Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew...

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Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000 Irwin/McGraw Hill

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Page 1: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

Risk and Return

Principles of Corporate FinanceBrealey and Myers Sixth Edition

Slides by

Matthew Will Chapter 8

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

Page 2: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 2

Topics Covered

Markowitz Portfolio Theory Risk and Return Relationship Testing the CAPM CAPM Alternatives

Page 3: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 3

Markowitz Portfolio Theory

Combining stocks into portfolios can reduce standard deviation below the level obtained from a simple weighted average calculation.

Correlation coefficients make this possible. The various weighted combinations of stocks

that create this standard deviations constitute the set of efficient portfoliosefficient portfolios.

Page 4: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 4

Markowitz Portfolio Theory

Price changes vs. Normal distribution

Microsoft - Daily % change 1986-1997

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

# of

Day

s (f

requ

ency

)

Daily % Change

Page 5: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 5

Markowitz Portfolio Theory

Price changes vs. Normal distribution

Microsoft - Daily % change 1986-1997

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

# of

Day

s (f

requ

ency

)

Daily % Change

Page 6: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 6

Markowitz Portfolio Theory

Standard Deviation VS. Expected Return

Investment C

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

-50 0 50

%

prob

abili

ty

% return

Page 7: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 7

Markowitz Portfolio Theory

Standard Deviation VS. Expected Return

Investment D

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

-50 0 50

%

prob

abili

ty

% return

Page 8: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 8

Markowitz Portfolio Theory

Bristol-Myers Squibb

McDonald’s

Standard Deviation

Expected Return (%)

45% McDonald’s

Expected Returns and Standard Deviations vary given different weighted combinations of the stocks.

Page 9: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 9

Efficient Frontier

Standard Deviation

Expected Return (%)

•Each half egg shell represents the possible weighted combinations for two stocks.

•The composite of all stock sets constitutes the efficient frontier.

Page 10: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 10

Efficient Frontier

Standard Deviation

Expected Return (%)

•Lending or Borrowing at the risk free rate (rf) allows us to exist outside the

efficient frontier.

rf

Lending

BorrowingT

S

Page 11: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 11

Efficient Frontier

Example Correlation Coefficient = .4

Stocks % of Portfolio Avg Return

ABC Corp 28 60% 15%

Big Corp 42 40% 21%

Standard Deviation = weighted avg = 33.6

Standard Deviation = Portfolio = 28.1

Return = weighted avg = Portfolio = 17.4%

Page 12: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 12

Efficient Frontier

Example Correlation Coefficient = .4

Stocks % of Portfolio Avg Return

ABC Corp 28 60% 15%

Big Corp 42 40% 21%

Standard Deviation = weighted avg = 33.6

Standard Deviation = Portfolio = 28.1

Return = weighted avg = Portfolio = 17.4%

Let’s Add stock New Corp to the portfolio

Page 13: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 13

Efficient Frontier

Example Correlation Coefficient = .3

Stocks % of Portfolio Avg Return

Portfolio 28.1 50% 17.4%

New CorpNew Corp 3030 50%50% 19% 19%

NEW Standard Deviation = weighted avg = 31.80

NEW Standard Deviation = Portfolio = 23.43

NEW Return = weighted avg = Portfolio = 18.20%

Page 14: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 14

Efficient Frontier

Example Correlation Coefficient = .3

Stocks % of Portfolio Avg Return

Portfolio 28.1 50% 17.4%

New Corp 30 50% 19%

NEW Standard Deviation = weighted avg = 31.80

NEW Standard Deviation = Portfolio = 23.43

NEW Return = weighted avg = Portfolio = 18.20%

NOTE: Higher return & Lower risk

Page 15: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 15

Efficient Frontier

Example Correlation Coefficient = .3

Stocks % of Portfolio Avg Return

Portfolio 28.1 50% 17.4%

New Corp 30 50% 19%

NEW Standard Deviation = weighted avg = 31.80

NEW Standard Deviation = Portfolio = 23.43

NEW Return = weighted avg = Portfolio = 18.20%

NOTE: Higher return & Lower risk

How did we do that?

Page 16: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 16

Efficient Frontier

Example Correlation Coefficient = .3

Stocks % of Portfolio Avg Return

Portfolio 28.1 50% 17.4%

New Corp 30 50% 19%

NEW Standard Deviation = weighted avg = 31.80

NEW Standard Deviation = Portfolio = 23.43

NEW Return = weighted avg = Portfolio = 18.20%

NOTE: Higher return & Lower risk

How did we do that? DIVERSIFICATION

Page 17: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 17

Efficient Frontier

A

B

Return

Risk (measured as )

Page 18: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 18

Efficient Frontier

A

B

Return

Risk

AB

Page 19: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 19

Efficient Frontier

A

BN

Return

Risk

AB

Page 20: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 20

Efficient Frontier

A

BN

Return

Risk

ABABN

Page 21: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 21

Efficient Frontier

A

BN

Return

Risk

AB

Goal is to move up and left.

WHY?

ABN

Page 22: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 22

Efficient Frontier

Return

Risk

Low Risk

High Return

Page 23: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 23

Efficient Frontier

Return

Risk

Low Risk

High Return

High Risk

High Return

Page 24: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 24

Efficient Frontier

Return

Risk

Low Risk

High Return

High Risk

High Return

Low Risk

Low Return

Page 25: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 25

Efficient Frontier

Return

Risk

Low Risk

High Return

High Risk

High Return

Low Risk

Low Return

High Risk

Low Return

Page 26: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 26

Efficient Frontier

Return

Risk

Low Risk

High Return

High Risk

High Return

Low Risk

Low Return

High Risk

Low Return

Page 27: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 27

Efficient Frontier

Return

Risk

A

BNABABN

Page 28: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 28

Security Market Line

Return

Risk

.

rf

Efficient PortfolioRisk Free

Return =

Page 29: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 29

Security Market Line

Return

Risk

.

rf

Risk Free

Return =

Market Return = rm

Efficient Portfolio

Page 30: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 30

Security Market Line

Return

Risk

.

rf

Risk Free

Return =

Market Return = rm

Efficient Portfolio

Page 31: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 31

Security Market Line

Return

BETA

.

rf

Risk Free

Return =

Market Return = rm

Efficient Portfolio

1.0

Page 32: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 32

Security Market Line

Return

BETA

rf

Risk Free

Return =

Market Return = rm

1.0

Security Market Line (SML)

Page 33: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 33

Security Market LineReturn

BETA

rf

1.0

SML

SML Equation = rf + B ( rm - rf )

Page 34: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 34

Capital Asset Pricing Model

R = rf + B ( rm - rf )

CAPM

Page 35: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 35

Testing the CAPM

Avg Risk Premium 1931-65

Portfolio Beta1.0

SML

30

20

10

0

Investors

Market Portfolio

Beta vs. Average Risk Premium

Page 36: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 36

Testing the CAPM

Avg Risk Premium 1966-91

Portfolio Beta1.0

SML

30

20

10

0

Investors

Market Portfolio

Beta vs. Average Risk Premium

Page 37: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 37

Testing the CAPM

0

5

10

15

20

25

Average Return (%)

Company size

Smallest Largest

Company Size vs. Average Return

Page 38: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 38

Testing the CAPM

0

5

10

15

20

25

Average Return (%)

Book-Market Ratio

Highest Lowest

Book-Market vs. Average ReturnBook-Market vs. Average Return

Page 39: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 39

Consumption Betas vs Market Betas

Stocks (and other risky assets)

Wealth = marketportfolio

Page 40: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 40

Consumption Betas vs Market Betas

Stocks (and other risky assets)

Wealth = marketportfolio

Market risk makes wealth

uncertain.

Page 41: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 41

Consumption Betas vs Market Betas

Stocks (and other risky assets)

Wealth = marketportfolio

Market risk makes wealth

uncertain.

Standard

CAPM

Page 42: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 42

Consumption Betas vs Market Betas

Stocks (and other risky assets)

Wealth = marketportfolio

Market risk makes wealth

uncertain.

Stocks (and other risky assets)

Consumption

Standard

CAPM

Page 43: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 43

Consumption Betas vs Market Betas

Stocks (and other risky assets)

Wealth = marketportfolio

Market risk makes wealth

uncertain.

Stocks (and other risky assets)

Consumption

Wealth

Wealth is uncertain

Consumption is uncertain

Standard

CAPM

Page 44: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 44

Consumption Betas vs Market Betas

Stocks (and other risky assets)

Wealth = marketportfolio

Market risk makes wealth

uncertain.

Stocks (and other risky assets)

Consumption

Wealth

Wealth is uncertain

Consumption is uncertain

Standard

CAPM

Consumption

CAPM

Page 45: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 45

Arbitrage Pricing Theory

Alternative to CAPMAlternative to CAPM

Expected Risk

Premium = r - rf

= Bfactor1(rfactor1 - rf) + Bf2(rf2 - rf) + …

Page 46: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 46

Arbitrage Pricing Theory

Alternative to CAPMAlternative to CAPM

Expected Risk

Premium = r - rf

= Bfactor1(rfactor1 - rf) + Bf2(rf2 - rf) + …

Return = a + bfactor1(rfactor1) + bf2(rf2) + …

Page 47: Risk and Return Principles of Corporate Finance Brealey and Myers Sixth Edition Slides by Matthew Will Chapter 8 © The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000.

©The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 2000Irwin/McGraw Hill

8- 47

Arbitrage Pricing Theory

Estimated risk premiums for taking on risk factors

(1978-1990)

6.36Mrket

.83-Inflation

.49GNP Real

.59-rate Exchange

.61-rateInterest

5.10%spread Yield)(r

ium Risk PremEstimatedFactor

factor fr


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