Q3 2019 Investor Presentation FINAL - Norbord...ð ï v ] t } } ] v Á o } µ

44
Investor Presentation November 2019

Transcript of Q3 2019 Investor Presentation FINAL - Norbord...ð ï v ] t } } ] v Á o } µ

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Investor PresentationNovember 2019

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Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information

2

Notices

• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.

• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

• Such statements and estimates are based on assumptions as to the future and on management’s current expectations and are, naturally, subject to risks and uncertainties.

• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.

• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.

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Company Overview

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Norbord Snapshot

• Leading manufacturer of wood-based panel products

• Largest global producer of Oriented Strand Board (OSB)– Stated OSB capacity of 9.0 Bsf-3/8”(1)

– Stated panel capacity (including particleboard & MDF) of 9.9 Bsf-3/8”(1)

– Approximately 2,500 employees at 17 plants across the US, Canada and Europe

• Listed on the NYSE and TSX (“OSB”)

• Report in US dollars and in accordance with IFRS

• LTM Q3 2019 sales of $1.9 billion

4

Company Overview

North America

Europe

Oriented Strand Board (OSB)

Particleboard

Medium Density Fiberboard (MDF)

Furniture

Panel Capacity by Region(1)

(1) Based on stated annual capacity as of December 31, 2018.

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The Leading Global OSB Company

5

Company Overview

Top 10 Global OSB Producers

Enterprise Value

Source: Company filings and Bloomberg. Enterprise values as at November 1, 2019.

* Excluding OSB siding capacity

*

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Norbord’s Wood-Based Panel Products

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Company Overview

OSB – 90% of Capacity

• Norbord’s operations include 15 OSB mills and two other plant locations in the UK producing particleboard, MDF and related value-added products

• New home construction

• Repair and remodel

• Light commercial construction

• Industrial applications

Particleboard – 6% of Capacity

• New home construction

• Repair and remodel

• Furniture

• Fixtures

MDF – 4% of Capacity

• Furniture

• Fixtures

• Mill work

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Industry Overview

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Typical Uses for OSB Products

8

Industry Overview

Wall Sheathing

Webstock

Flooring

Rimboard Door Header

Roof

Window Header

Garage Door Header

• OSB is an innovative, affordable and environmentally “sustainable” structural panel– Serves many of the same uses as plywood, but produced at a lower cost

• Norbord expects OSB will continue to capture market share from plywood– Currently, OSB represents 69% of total North American structural panel production

Source: APA, October 2019

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Global OSB Industry

9

Industry Overview

Industry OSB Capacity (MMsf-3/8”)

Norbord operates in the two significant global OSB producing regions

Source: Company documents and other public filings, Wood Based Panels International (WBPI)

* Excluding NA OSB siding capacity

*

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North American & European OSB Industries

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Industry Overview

North American OSB Industry

Source: Company documents and other public filings – stated industry capacity

European OSB Industry

Norbord is a significant player in both key markets

* Excluding OSB siding capacity.

*

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US Housing Starts Are the Single Biggest End Use for OSB

11Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA)

Industry Overview

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US Repair & Remodel Demand Also Drives OSB Consumption

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Industry Overview

Bsf-

3/8”

bas

is

US$

bill

ions

Source: Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA); in billions of 2012 US$

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Norbord announced indefinite curtailment of Cordele, GA Line 1 (440 MMsf) effective mid-November 2019

The picture can't be displayed.

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North American OSB Industry Stated Capacity of 27 Bsf

13

Industry Overview

Note: Excludes OSB siding production and capacity.

Source: APA, company documents and other public filings

35 Mills in Operation

5 Mills (Re)started in 2017/18

North American OSB Installed Capacity:

Norbord Mill

6 Mills (Re)started in 2012/13

3 Mills Idle

Georgie-Pacific announced indefinite curtailment of Allendale, SC mill (800 MMsf) effective December 2019

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Favourable Long-term OSB Industry Fundamentals

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Industry Overview

North American OSB Demand

Source: Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA)

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$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Annu

al A

vera

ge N

C Pr

ice

US$

per

Msf

7/1

6"Historical North American OSB Prices

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Industry Overview

North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths

15-year average: $253

• OSB prices are tied to demand for building products, which is influenced by the general economy, demographics and the need for housing

Q1 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226 293 370 211

Q2 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264 330 426 188

Q3 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301 409 363 217

Q4 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242 285 379 243

Average 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209 269 353 351

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0

2

4

6

8

10

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Europe: Strong Demand Growth Driven by Substitution

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Industry Overview

OSB Share of Structural Panels

Source: Forest Economic Advisors, LLC (FEA), European Panel Federation (EPF) and Norbord estimates

European OSB Demand (million m3)

Source: Eurostat, UN Comtrade Database, Destatis and Norbord estimates

8%2005-2018 CAGR

North America

Europe Indicative average OSB price

Source: Random Lengths and Company documents

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• Significant growth opportunity – OSB accounts for only ~9% of the structural panel market in Japan compared to 69% in North America

Japan: Stable Housing Market

17

Industry Overview

Japanese Housing Starts (000’s)

Source: Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism and Company documents

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Business Strategy

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Norbord’s Strategy Is Well Defined

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Business Strategy

Pursue growth in OSB2

Own high-quality assets with low-cost positions3

Maintain a margin-focused operating culture4

Focus on growth customers through best-in-class service and product development

5

Allocate capital with discipline6

Develop a world-class safety culture 1

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Norbord’s Growth Focused on OSB

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Business Strategy

Norbord OSB Capacity (Bsf-3/8”)

(1) 2015 onwards reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.(2) Norbord's total OSB capacity increased by 560 MMsf-3/8" effective December 31, 2018 based on recent capital investments and improved efficiency.

(1) (2)

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Margin Improvement Is an Operational Priority

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Business Strategy

(1) Measured relative to prior year at constant prices and exchange rates.(2) The benefits from richer product mix and improved productivity were offset by higher maintenance-related costs. In addition, 2018 MIP was negatively impacted by higher raw material usages and costs associated with

executing on strategic capital and sales growth initiatives. Further, the excellent ramp up of the Huguley, Alabama and Inverness, Scotland mills were excluded from 2018 MIP calculation. (3) 2015 onwards reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.

(2)

Margin Improvement Program Gains (US$ in millions)“In Control of Our Controllables”

• Margin Improvement Program (MIP) gains help offset impact of industry-wide rising input costs:– Increased productivity– Reduced overhead costs– Reduced raw material usage– Improved product mix

• MIP has delivered $331 million of margin improvements over the past 15 years

(1)

(3)

(2)

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Repositioning Business to Reduce Earnings Volatility

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Business Strategy

Q3/19 LTM Sales

(1) Exports to Asia are handled by Interex and sales are reported in the North American geographic segment.

• Strong operating footprint

• Growing stable margin end-uses:

– North American industrial products

– European panels

– Asia-focused exports(1)

• Provides greater diversification than North American-based competitors

• Better positioned to weather market cycles

(1)

$1.9 billionsales

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Focused Customer Strategy Sets Norbord Apart

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Business Strategy

Q3/19 LTM North American Shipments

• New home construction sales volume tied to US housing starts• Repair & remodel sales volume growing in step with R+R expenditures• Industrial and export sales volume growing through substitution, has more stable margins

6.4 Bsf-3/8”

Commodity

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Specialty Products Will Drive North American Substitution Growth

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Business Strategy

• Reduced dependence on new home construction

• More predictable, stable margins over business cycle

2015 Target2018

~400 MMsf

Specialty Products Volume (MMsf-3/8”)

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New Industrial End Uses, New Growth Opportunities

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North American Industrial Panel Consumption

EWP

Furniture Commercial

Source: APA – The Engineered Wood Association, FEA, RISI, US Forest Products Annual Market Review and Prospects (USDA FS), US International Trade Commission, Norbord estimates

Business Strategy

Norbord is a leading supplier to current industrial end uses

~21 Bsf-3/8”

Transportation

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More Stable Results from European Operations

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Business Strategy

European Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)

• European panel prices have rolled over from the well above-average levels of the past two years

• Future margin growth is expected from the ramp-up of Inverness phase 1 and 2 investments

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Inverness Mill Expansion Supports Increasing European Customer Demand

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Business Strategy

Phase 1 investment of US$147 million

• New continuous press line started up in Q4/2017

• New finishing end commissioned in Q1/2019

Phase 2 investment of US$46 million (£35 million)

• 2nd wood room and dryer approved in January 2019

• Completion expected H2/2020

395

720945

2016 Phase 1expansion

Phase 2expansion

+139%

Inverness Capacity (in MMsf-3/8”) Inverness Investments

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58%22%

20%

63%

4%

28%

5%

Diversifying Towards Stable Margin End Uses

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Norbord shipments(1)

5.1 Bsf-3/8”

(1) Reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.(2) Represents Norbord’s North American non-OSB business (fully divested in 2010).

Business Strategy

20041.96M US Housing Starts

20181.25M US Housing Starts

Norbord shipments8.3 Bsf-3/8”

(2)

NA Specialty

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Business Strategy

Capex Investment (US$ millions)• Three main priorities:– Re-invest in the business– Optimize capital structure– Return cash to shareholders

• 2019 capex forecast of $150 million

– Includes investments to prepare Chambord, Quebec mill for restart (when warranted by customer demand) and Inverness, Scotland phase 2 project

• 2020 capex budget of $100 million

– Includes investments in Chambord and Inverness phase 2

Disciplined Capital Allocation

(1)

(1) 2015 onwards reflects Norbord following completion of merger with Ainsworth. Pre 2015 reflects Norbord excluding Ainsworth.

Minimum Maintenance $25 million

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Financial Overview

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Strong Operating Cash Flow Through The Cycle

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Financial Overview

North Central Avg. Benchmark OSB Price $369 $320 $217 $161 $172 $163 $219 $186 $271 $315 $218 $209 $269 $353 $351 $215

US Housing Starts(000s) 1,956 2,068 1,801 1,355 906 554 587 609 781 925 1,003 1,112 1,174 1,202 1,250 1,237

Total Adjusted EBITDA (US$ millions)

15-year average:$330 million

(1) As disclosed in Ainsworth’s historical MD&As; converted to USD using annual average exchange rate.(2) Assumes operation at LTM production levels as of October 5, 2019.

Norbord sensitivity to realized North American OSB price changes:

+$10/Msf 7/16” = +$52 million Adjusted EBITDA(2)

(1)

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Manageable Leverage

32

Financial Overview

Adjusted EBITDA vs Net Debt

Quarterly Adj. EBITDA

(in US$ millions)

Net Debt toLTM Adj. EBITDA

• Comfortable headroom versus revolver financial covenantsQ3 2019 Covenant

Net debt to capitalization 40% 65%

Tangible net worth (book basis) $1,028 million $500 million

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Strong Balance Sheet & Liquidity

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Financial Overview

Q3 2019

Cash $ 3

Bank Lines(1) 234

A/R Securitization(2) 49

Liquidity $ 286

Comfortable Debt Maturities (US$ millions) Strong Liquidity Profile (US$ millions)

Moody’s Ba1 (Stable)

S&P BB (Stable)

Stable Issuer Credit Ratings

coup

on 6

.25%

(1) $245 million of committed revolving bank lines less $11 million outstanding letters of credit and guarantees drawn at quarter-end.(2) $76 million was the maximum available under the A/R securitization program and $27 million was recorded as drawn under the program at quarter end.

coup

on 5

.75%

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Returning Cash to Shareholders Through Variable Dividend Policy

34

Financial Overview

Dividends Declared (US$ millions)

(1)

(1) Reflects dividend of C $0.20 per share (translated at C $1 = US $0.76) to be paid on December 23, 2019 to shareholders of record on November 29, 2019.

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0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Norbord Peer1 Peer2 Peer3 Peer4 Peer5 Peer6 Peer7 Peer8

Strong Track Record of Value Creation

35

Financial Overview

15-Year Average ROCE %(1)

Source: Capital IQ

(1) Return on capital employed (ROCE) is a measure of financial performance focusing on cash generation and the effective use of capital. ROCE is calculated as Adjusted EBITDA divided by average capital employed (operating working capital, PP&E, goodwill, intangible assets of timberlands & licences).

(2) Only includes shares repurchased during November 2018 to January 2019 of Normal Course Issuer Bid Program.

>$1BCapital invested

$1.4BDividends paid out

$141Mto repurchase 5.2M shares

(6% of outstanding)

24%

(2)

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Value Leader in the OSB IndustryFinancial Overview

Peer1

Peer3

Peer2

Peer4

TSX Composite

~8-Year Annualized Total Return (in US$)*

Source: Bloomberg*Annual return measured from December 30, 2011 to November 1, 2019.

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Superior operating and cost performance

Diversification strategy supports growth and stable margins

Disciplined approach to capital allocation

Shareholder-friendly track record

Attractive Investment Opportunity Summary

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Appendices

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Shareholder Information

39

Appendices

Ticker Symbol NYSE: OSB

TSX: OSB

Common Shares 81.7 million outstanding(as at October 31, 2019)

Quarterly Dividend(variable dividend policy)

C $0.20 per share (declared October 31, 2019 to be paid on December 23, 2019 to shareholders of record on November 29, 2019)

Largest Shareholder Brookfield Asset Management – ~43%(as at October 31, 2019)

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Financial Sensitivities

40

Appendices

Exposure Change

Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)

(US$ millions)

North American OSB (2) $10 per Msf-7/16” + $64

European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $11

Canadian dollar (1),(3) $0.01 per C$ + $6

Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1

(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the curtailed Chambord, Quebec and 100 Mile House, British Columbia mills and Line 1 at the Cordele, Georgia mill to be curtailed mid-November 2019). Impact on Adjusted EBITDA of a $10 per Msf-7/16” change is ± $52 million based on the last twelve months of production at October 5, 2019.Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at December 31, 2018 – Canada C$8 million and Belgium €32 million.

(2) Estimated impact of change in Norbord’s realized North American OSB price.

(3) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares and income tax payments).

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Analyst Coverage

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Appendices

Analyst Analyst Name Contact

Bank of America Merrill Lynch John Babcock/George Staphos (646) 743-0046 [email protected]

BMO Capital Markets Ketan Mamtora/Mark Wilde (212) 883-5121 [email protected]

CIBC World Markets Hamir Patel (604) 331-3047 [email protected]

Credit Suisse Andrew Kuske (416) 352-4561 [email protected]

ERA Forest Products Research John Cooney (604) 267-3021 [email protected]

John Tumazos Very Independent Research John Tumazos (732) 444-1083 [email protected]

Raymond James Daryl Swetlishoff (604) 659-8246 [email protected]

RBC Capital Markets Paul Quinn (604) 257-7048 [email protected]

Scotia Capital Benoit Laprade (514) 287-3627 [email protected]

Seaport Global Securities Mark Weintraub (646) 264-5602 [email protected]

TD Securities Sean Steuart (416) 308-3399 [email protected]

Vertical Research Partners Chip Dillon (212) 257-6159 [email protected]

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Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at November 1, 2019. It is not exhaustive.

Forecast North American OSB Prices

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Appendices

Analyst 2019F 2020E

Seaport Global 211 294

TD Securities 215 289

BMO Capital Markets 213 285

Vertical Research Partners 207 285

Scotiabank 213 276

CIBC World Markets 215 275

Raymond James 215 270

RBC Capital Markets 210 250

Bank of America Merrill Lynch 206 238

Average 212 274

Annual AverageNorth Central

Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”

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Sustainability: Core to Our Business

43

Appendices

Wood is a renewable resource

OSB sequesterscarbon

We utilize 100% of the tree

We use biomassto generate heat energy

Norbord’s North American net carbon sink = offsetting annual emissions from >700k vehicles

Source: Norbord estimates based on 2017 production

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Norbord Inc.

Suite 600One Toronto Street

Toronto, Ontario, M5C 2W4Canada

Tel: 416-365-0705

www.norbord.com