PIs: B. Helmuth, T. J. Hilbish, V. Lakshmi, D. Wethey, S. Woodin

Post Docs: S. Chintalapati, S. Gilman, N. Mieszkowska, S. Pincebourde, A. Zenone

Students and Techs: P. Brannock, S. Chhotray, E. Fly, K. Jones, S. Jones, R. Rognstad, A. Smith, L. Yamane

Teachers: C. Dryden, B. Gill

Vari

able

of

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Space (e.g. Latitude)Time (years, decades, centuries)

Ecological and Environmental Gradients

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Vari

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Space (e.g. Latitude)Time (years, decades, centuries)

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Reality

Vari

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(e.g

. Tem

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Space (e.g. Latitude)Time (years, decades, centuries)

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-3

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Environmental “gradients” exist comprise signals of different frequencies; however, we often only pay attention to the low frequency components (e.g. long term trends)

E.g. Effects of PDO, ENSO in time counteract or amplify warming trends; effects of factors such as upwelling, local fog, etc. in space can trump latitude

Do we really know how patterns of environmental stressors change in space and time?

What is signal and what is noise? (and what frequencies do we need to measure and record?)

To an organism, all weather, climate, and climate change is local, at the level of the microhabitat

Seastar at ~12°C

Mussel at ~21°C

Two organisms exposed to identical microclimates can often show very different body temperatures

Physiological effects are both direct and indirect:◦ Mussels die at body temperatures in excess of

36°C when exposed at low tide (KA Smith) and/or when food supply is low (Schneider et al.) and/or when winter water temps <10.5°C (Wethey)

◦ Seastars reduce foraging on mussels when exposed to aerial body temperatures above 14°C (Pincebourde et al.)

Climate Models and Weather Data

Theoretical Models of Organism Body Temperature

Make and Test Hypotheses in space and Time

Realized Niches

Experimental Physiological

and Ecological Data

Primary Space Occupiers

Invasive spp. Keystone spp.

Fundamental Niches

Species Interactions (Competition, Predation, Facilitation)

(spatially and temporally explicit mapsof distribution, abundance, and growth)

Mussel temperatures have been steadily increasing since 2000: why?

Not surprisingly, magnitude of variables such as air and water temperature often vary from physiologically relevant factors such as body temperature

However, patterns both quantitatively and qualitatively vary

Out of phase

In phase

Body temperature vs air and water temperature of intertidal mussels

Helmuth 2009 J. Exp. Biol.

Comparative Patterns of Autocorrelation

’00 ’01 ‘02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06

Tatoosh

Boiler Bay

Strawberry Hill

Cape Arago

Trinidad

Cape Mendocino

Bodega

Santa Cruz

Monterey

Cambria

Jalama

Alegria

0/year 0 to 2/year > 2/year

West Coast Mussel Mortality Risk: Frequency of 36° C temperatures for at least 2 hours over 3 consecutive days

Allison Smith

M gallo Moving north in

English Channel Abundant in

Brittany Rarer on French

Biscay Coast Abundant in

Iberia Cold days in

winter inhibitory

RW Reynolds, NOAA NCDC, GHRSST OISST-AVHRR Daily 1985-present

1985 2007

Latitude

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

Alive

Dead

28

30

32

34

36

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40

Present Day

Barrier

Dispersal

Dead

Alive

Latitude

Tem

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(°C

)

30

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34

36

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Alive

Dead

Barrier

Barrier

Dispersal

Latitude

Tem

pera

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(°C

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30

32

34

36

38

40

42Barrier: sp 1 only

No barriers

Species 2

Species 1

Sp. 1 thresholdSp. 2 threshold

Barrier: both spp.

Marine Protected Areas: must work now and in the future

20-50 years

NowClimate Change

Abundance

Lati

tude

Lati

tude

Abundance

Climate Change

Now Climate Change20-50 years

4) Plan network of “stepping stones” in advance

By forecasting changes in abundance of key species, we can design MPAs so that distance between current and future stepping stones is set by dispersal ability of key species

Mechanistic forecasting has similar goals to statistical modeling, but does not assume all edges are set by same environmental factors

Time intensive, so focus on key “foundation” species that directly or indirectly drive patterns of biodiversity and ecosystem function

Can complement statistical approaches by targeting specific needs of resource managers

NASA grants NNG04GE43G and NNX07AF20G

NOAA Ecofore grant NA04 NOS4780264