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“Operationalizing Intelligence Across the Global Enterprise”LTG Michael T. Flynn

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Between 2010 and 2030, world’s population will grow by more than a billion people (Almost all of that growth in the developing world)

Global Megatrends – The Imperative for Change

Technology

Economics

Resources

By 2035, global energy consumption will rise by 50 percent, with developing countries making up 84 percent of the demand

By 2025, the combined GDP of China & India will be bigger than that of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and the US put together

By 2020, the number of internet users will double to more than 4 billion (The fastest rate of growth in the developing world)

A complex and uncertain future for a world transforming at an unprecedented rate…

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Global Megatrends – Crisis is the New NormalA closer look at population and information technology

INF

O T

EC

HN

OL

OG

Y

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

Increased connectivity gives enemies a platform and network without accountability

Wildcard and networked threats exert strategic influence despite limited resources

Development of disruptive technology outpaces our policies and ability to protect against attack

Data correlation, recall, and storage become just as important as analysis and collection

The network emerges as the new weapon system

Competition for food, water, and energy breeds conflict and social unrest

Overpopulation weakens local governance, security, and employment opportunity

Unstable governments struggle to provide for their people and empower transnational groups

The unpredictable shifting security landscape redefines the international balance of power

Sprawling urban areas emerge as the dominant terrain

By 2020, more than 500 cities with one million or more people

By 2020, more than half the world’s population connected to the internet

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Statistics taken from US Census Bureau and the United Nations

~700

8B

1.7B

~10B

632

7416

1B

3

2.6B

Global Population

(In Billions)

Number of Cities Over 1 Million

1800

205019

00

1950

2010

2025

6.7B

442

In 2008, half the world’s population

lived in urban areas

2008

Megatrend: An Urbanized World

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Information Technologies & the InternetRapid advances in communications, transportation, and information set the stage

Storage

Storage & Interface

Storage, Interface & Analysis

Storage, Interface , Analysis, Ingest & Collaborate

70s-80s80s – 90s

90s – 00s

00s - Present20XX?

Virtual Cloud, Information/NetworkConvergence

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•Acknowledge the unpredictable nature of the operating environment•Prioritize building a new type of intelligence workforce•Develop tools to understand a data-rich environment•Build agility and flexibility to rapidly shift resources•Expand the warning function to the edge•Understand impacts of social media on the intelligence collection system•Partner for advantage with non-traditional partners

We must adapt to a complex spectrum of instability and uncertainty

Global Megatrends – So What

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2000

2014

China is the top supplier of goods to this country

China is the second or third supplier of goods to this country

In 2014, China exports goods to

69.9% of all countriesIn 2000, China exported goods to

9.7% of all countries

China’s global supply increase

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2004

Islamic Terrorist Groups

18 Total Countries/Territories with Islamic Terrorist Groups Present

21 Total Islamic Terrorist Groups 2014

24 Total Countries/Territories with Islamic Terrorist Groups Present

41 Total Islamic Terrorist Groups

These maps depict the number and primary areas of operation of Islamic terrorist groups in 2004 and 2014, as designated by U.S. State Department’s Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) list. These maps only depict the geographic regions from Africa to South Asia, and do not include North or South America.

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Highly Agile Operational Intelligence

Interdependent NetworksPartner Nation,

Service & Interagency Integration

Intel

Law Enforcement

Military

Mission

Support

IC A

naly

sis

IC Collection

Polic

ymak

ers

Intelligence

Warfighters

Security through Partnerships• Appropriate laws, policies, funding, and authorities• National-level security priorities• Multilateral partnerships

• Communicate military priorities• Establish intel requirements

• Task organize to fuse analysts, collectors, and mission support

• Strengthen partnerships

• Provide global coverage• Prioritize the right assets against the greatest threats

• Build Multi-INT assessments• Understand the environment• Collaborate outside your office,

agency, and country

• Capitalize on IT developments

• Gain efficiencies thrupartnered logistics

• Partner with allies for joint, intel-driven ops

• Increase foreign rotations and training opportunities

• Matrixed Ops/Intel centers work best

• Improve feedback loop• Support LE/MIL

by providing operational opportunities

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Verify

ProportionDepth

Quality

Produce

BREAKING NEWSDECISION MAKERS

Decision Making in the 21st Century(Battle Rhythm in The Information Age)

BlogsI-Reporter Twitter

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Intelligence Cycle Disseminate

Social Media

Social Networks

ImmediateSensational

Real-time news feed to mobile devices

AnalyzeCollect

Traditional News Cycle

EVENTUnfilteredImmense data

Unconfirmed

The disconnect between the speed of information and the intelligence cycle

Who gets there first?

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ISR Today: What It Looks Like

Rivet Joint

JSTARSPredator

Global Hawk

U-2 AIR

LANDEP-3Guardrail

Sensor Suite

AF-DCGS

National SIGINT

National IMINT

GPS Commercial IMINT

CYBER

OUR CHALLENGE: Processing, exploiting, and sharingintegrated ISR bulk data in an international coalition environment

SPACE

MARITIME

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ISR Today: How It Works

Principles• Speed• Trust • Transparency • New Partners • Centralize SA • Decentralize DM

FIND

FIX

ANALYZE EXPLOIT

FINISH

UNDERSTAND

OPS / INTEL FUSION

MAIN EFFORT

C2 \ PED \ Partner Interoperability \ Joint ISRAutomation \ Cross Domain Access \ Shared Architecture

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How We Will Get There – A New Model for Intelligence

The Way Forward

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What I’ve Learned: What We Need

With no doctrine / no guidance…

(1) Constantly task organize to achieve your purpose (2) Develop a culture of inclusion and transparency(3) Must have a widely understood strategy (4) Build / sustain a disciplined battle rhythm (5) Centralize situational awareness / decentralize decision making (6) Trust in team (7) Constant leader involvement

Maintain an offensive mindset…Change must be driven, not just shared…seek opportunities, have the intellect to see it and the courage to take it”

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Questions

Key Challenges

•Islamic Extremism & Volatility in Middle East

•Russian Revanchism•Cyber Threats•Iran & North Korea Disruptive Behavior

•Rise of Aggressive China•Failed & Failing States

Global Threats and Challenges to 2025

ArcticTerritorial Disputes

North Korea -South Korea

Crisis

South China Sea Tensions

SE AsiaTensions

Russia-”Privileged Zone” Tensions

Yemen Instability

Armenia-Azerbaijan

Crisis

Sunni/Shia/Kurd

Competition

Terrorist Challenges

Terrorist Challenge

Somalia Conflict

Sudan Conflict

Terrorist Challenge

Sub-Saharan AfricaWidespread Potential Humanitarian Crises,

Governance Crises

Piracy

TCOs Destabilizing Governance

Libya Internal Tensions

Egypt Internal Tensions

Cuba - Instability

Haiti Crisis

PakistanInternal Tensions

Colombia Insurgency

VenezuelaInstability

Central AsiaInterstate

Friction

Peru Insurgency

Terrorist Challenge

BalkansInstability

AfghanistanContinuing Insurgency

Terrorist Challenge

Israeli-Palestinian

Tensions

Peacekeeping India/Pakistan

IranRegional Threats, Nuclear

North KoreaRegime Collapse

China-Taiwan Crisis

TCO Violence

Cyber Attack on Critical U.S.

InfrastructureTerrorist WMD

Attack

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EU Integration

Frictions

Large Majority of Crises Stem from Weak Governance

Relationship to U.S. & Allies’ Interests May Not Be Immediately Apparent

Crisis Containment/Resolution May Require US Forces Involvement to Prevent, Shape, Win

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China-Japan Crisis

China InternalTensions

“A broad set of enduring, highly asymmetric, unconventional, novel and indirect challenges…”Dr. Michael G. Vickers, Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence, June 3, 20149/11/2014 17

Click to edit Master title styleUNCLASS/FOUO

AMERICA’S ARMY:THE STRENGTH OF THE NATION Global Threats and Challenges to 2025

Russia vs.

Ukraine

Islamic Extremism & Volatility

KoreaDisruptive

State

Aggressive China

Overlapping “Playbooks”

IranDisruptive

State

Russia vs. Ukraine•Proxies, SOF, Influence Ops•Exploiting Identity Cleavages•Force

Demonstrations /”Sabre Rattling”

•Exploiting NATO Divisions•Create “Controlled

Instability”

Islamic Extremism •Multiple Forces, Militias•Proxies, Advisors •Selective CW Use•Mixed Conventional vs.

Irregular Forces• Improvised Weapons•Complex International Play

Iran – Disruptive State•System of Proxies•Guardian of Shia•Swarm tactics•Ballistic Missiles/GLCMs for

strategic influence•Conventional, Unconventional, &

Irregular forces & strategy

China vs. Neighbors• Incremental and Intimidating

Assertion of Territorial Claims•Force Bilateral Situations•Use Non-Military Assets with

Military in Overwatch•Control ROE to Minimize Risk of

Escalation

Korea – Disruptive State•Periodic Provocations incl

lethal attacks•Outmoded but Large &

Deadly Conventional Force•SOF, Missiles for Deterrence

& Revenue•WMD for Deterrence•Complex International Role

Common Adversary Themes•Stay Under Threshold for U.S. Military Action•Achieve Results without Decisive military Engagement

•Indirect Strategies across full ROMO•States Maintain Large Armed Forces•Psychological/Influence Warfare•Play the International Environment•Pursue Permanent Warfare

Global Conditions•Weak/Poor Governance•Global Integration (Economic & Informational)

•Predominance of US (incl Allies) in Global Military Reach

•Evolving Legal Structures•Costs & Risks of War

Non Linear Dynamic Use of the Elements of Power and Activities Overlap to Achieve Political Objectives

Global Threats and Challenges to 2025

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Click to edit Master title styleUNCLASS/FOUO

AMERICA’S ARMY:THE STRENGTH OF THE NATION Overlapping “Playbooks”