701 2019 ( ) 2 1 9 鐘聲 : (06)2150674 - Catholic · 母到他家裡奉養。耶穌在十字架上指定若望為聖母 的兒子時，就代表著我們都是聖母的兒女。
年 月 日 國際金融展望 - tmba.twtmba.tw/fo/20130805_Global Financial Outlook.pdf ·...
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2 2013 年 08 月 05 日 國際金融展望 量化寬鬆聲明減緩市場恐慌，延續基本面持續上攻 總體經濟 寬鬆貨幣政策延續、市場不確定性消除，經濟數據正向表現，持續溫和成長。a)生產面表現樂觀：ISM 製 造業採購經理人指數(PMI)為 53.7 ，優於前月 51.9 及預期 53.2 ；顯示經理人對於未來前景表示樂觀。同 時新接單為 58.3，優於前月 51.9，耐久財訂單亦月增 4.2%達 2,445 億美元優於預期 2.3%，生產基本 面良好。b)就業市場表現穩定成長：美國初次申請失業金人數減少 1.9 萬至 32.6 萬人，創 2008 年 1 月 以來低點。而連續失業人數下降至 29.51M，非農就業與私部門非農就業均有顯著成長，勞動參與率維持 在 63.4%，亦即公布下降至 7.4%的失業率(前季 7.5%)具有實質改善成效。c)房市銷售成果亮眼，但具放 緩趨勢：新屋銷售在季節調整後仍大增 8.3%，年率達 49.7 萬戶，寫下 2008 年以來紀錄，然而在營建 支出部分意外下降 0.6%(預期上升 0.5%)、成屋銷售亦下滑 1.2%，宜持續留意後續影響。d)消費信心強 勁，帶來支出成長：密西根大學消費者信心指數為 85.1，優於預期 84 及前月 83.9，創六年來高點。 國際股市 受到美國各項經濟數據表現亮眼，以及中國製造業數據表現優於預期，使得上周美股四大指數應聲大漲， 亞股部份，中國出現反彈，日本微幅下跌、印度股市因市場擔憂盧比貶勢可能使資金外流加速而收黑， 恆生指數以及韓綜指數均維持上漲趨勢。全球採購經理人指數喜訊頻傳，歐洲銀行業獲利大放異彩，銀 行股帶頭領漲，歐股全面走高。美國聯邦儲備理事會上周三表示，將維持每個月購買 850 億美元公債和 抵押支持債券(MBS)的步伐，以繼續支撐經濟，如此一來，全球股市將可望維持一段時間的上漲趨勢。 CRB 中國工業和信息化部於 7/25 公布首批工業行業淘汰落後產能企業名單，包含銅冶煉、煉鋼及煉鐵和氧化 鋁等多個行業，顯示中國確定落實基本金屬產能過剩問題，造成近期 LME 基本金屬期貨指數的下跌。 BDI 中國河北省邢臺市為改善空氣品質，已率先對市區燃煤企業進行環境影響評估並要求改進，未來其他城 市也可能跟進，此舉將減少中國對燃媒之需求。 原油 美國勞工局(USDL)於 7/31 公佈， 2013 年第 2 季國內生產毛額(GDP)成長率為 1.7% ，優於預估值 1.0%， 並高於第一季的 1.1%，主因為第一季 GDP 增速遭向下修正，致第 2 季表現較第一季良好的現象。 黃金 美國商品期貨交易委員會(CFTC)於 8/2 發佈報告，市場交易者持有的黃金淨多單減少 5,825 口至 28,366 口，顯示市場交易者已減弱黃金多頭走勢的看法，逐漸結清部位獲利了結。 債券 美國 10 年債券的多頭格局已經告終，短線看 7 月底的勞工局就業報告，可判斷 QE 減碼的機率，本刊預 期 QE 在 9 月減碼機率高，最晚不會晚於今年底。本刊預期在 2015/6 之前聯準會應該還不至於升息。 利率匯率 英央行宣稱除非失業率降低以及經濟體增長顯著，否則續維持低利率 本刊下期出刊日期：2013/08/19（一）。 本刊所有圖文、資料版權均歸TMBA所有，未經TMBA及原作者授權同意，不得轉製使用。 本刊為 TMBA 內部與畢業校友之間學術性研討資料，非營利為目的，您可透過 http://tmba.tw 免費下載， 如欲訂閱可利用網站所提供之 RSS 功能。
Transcript of 年 月 日 國際金融展望 - tmba.twtmba.tw/fo/20130805_Global Financial Outlook.pdf ·...
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2013 08 05
a)ISM
(PMI) 53.7 51.9 53.2
58.3 51.9 4.2% 2,445 2.3%
b) 1.9 32.6 2008 1
29.51M
63.4% 7.4%( 7.5%)c)
8.3% 49.7 2008
0.6%( 0.5%) 1.2%d)
85.1 84 83.9
850
(MBS)
CRB 7/25
LME
BDI
(USDL) 7/31 2013 2 (GDP) 1.7% 1.0%
1.1% GDP 2
(CFTC) 8/2 5,825 28,366
10 7 QE
QE 9 2015/6
2013/08/19
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Nasdaq Equity- US N N O 4
S&P500 Equity- US N N O 5
Equity- US N N O 6
2000 Equity- US U N O 7
MSCI Equity- Europe N O N 8
225 Equity- Asia O O N 9
Equity- Asia O O N 10
KOSPI Equity- Asia O N N 11
Equity- Asia O N N 12
Equity- ASEAN O O O 13
JCI Equity- ASEAN U N O 14
SET Equity- ASEAN U N O 15
Emerging Market N N O 16
Emerging Market U N O 17
RTS Emerging Market N N N 18
Emerging Market U U N 19
MSCI Emerging Market N N O 20
CRB Natural Resources O N O 21
BDI Natural Resources U N N 22
Natural Resources O O O 23
Natural Resources U U U 24
NBI Growth Sector O O O -
RXS Defensive Sector O O O -
S&P REITs Real Estate N O O 25
10 Sovereign Bond N N U 26
JP Morgan Sovereign Bond O O O -
Moodys Baa Corporate Bond O O O -
JP Morgan Corporate Bond O O O -
Currency O O O 27
Currency U U U 28
Currency U U U 29
Currency U U N 30
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Currency N N U 32
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Nasdaq TMBA
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3,532 3,779 3,154.96 4,210
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a)ISM
(PMI) 53.7 51.9 53.2 58.3
51.9 4.2% 2,445 2.3%b)
1.9 32.6 2008 1 29.51M
63.4% 7.4%( 7.5%)
c) 8.3% 49.7 2008
0.6%( 0.5%) 1.2%d)
85.1 84 83.9
1,560 1,720 1,539.55 1,760
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b)2 VIX
11.98 S&P500
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Fed 850 IMF
1.7% Fed 2.3% 2.6%
14,421.00 15,441.00 13,401.00 16,685.00
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2000 TMBA
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KD
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MSCI TMBA
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6
2002 K
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( 1545 )
GDP -0.3% GDP
7 PMI 50
GDP
( 2014 EPS ) 11.8
500 13.7 2014
7 1.6%
OMT(Outright Monetary Transactions)
1,521 1,580 1,460 1,600
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225 TMBA
6 K
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3-v
2002 K
225
2009
2012
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0.382x
(1)6 :7.4%(:10.1%)(2)6 :11.8% 6
6 182.3 Billion (3)6
YoY:1.6%(:0.8%)(4)6 3.93%(:4.1%)
13,300 14,500 12,000 15,500
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6 K
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(1)6:4.1%(:3.9%)(2)7(PMI)50.3
7
(PMI)50.349.8 (Fed)
77.5%9
GDP7.5%7%
A
20,000 23,000 19,000 23,500
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KOSPI TMBA
6 K
KOSPI
1923.38
2002 K
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2008
5
C
(1) 2 GDP YoY2.3%(1.5%)(2) 7 YoY-2.6%(-1.3%)
(3)7 45.8 Billion 43.1 Billion
(GDP) 1.1% 2010 2 3 1%
GDP
(ECB)
10
1,750 2,050 1,700 2,200
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6 K
8087.1
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2011
9,220
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7,050
(1) YoY2.3%(1.7%)(2)7PMI
48.63
3
7,800 8,200 7,500 8,400
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5.3% 10 6 5% 4%(2) 2Q2013
2.1% 1Q 1.9 4Q 1.8% 341.9 4% 3.25
2,120 2,900 (3) 6 1.8% 5
1.6% 4
(4) 106.1
2~3% 8
3,070 3,500 2,945 3,621
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JCI TMBA
6 K
JCI
7 6
9
QE
4,630
III-3-iv JCI
18.98
III-4
2002 K
JCI
2008 III
III-3-iv
JCI 1.77%
(1) 2Q2013 58 124
(2) 7 (CPI) 8.61%
7.5% 6 5.9%(3) 7
(PMI)50.7 6 51 (4) 2Q2013 (FDI) 18.9% 66.7
30.2% 192.8 60.6/132.2
QE
9 QE JCI
4,330 5,200 4,000 5,600
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SET TMBA
6 K
SET
1,465
III-3-iv
III-4
17.06
2002 K
SET
2008
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SET
SET 4.11%
(1) 6 81.6
(2) 2%
(3) 6 3.38%5 5.25% 2013 0.95%
(4) 8 1 8 10
QE
1,320 1,650 843 1,700
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2008
(1).80006674
(2).
0.3%3.3%7PMI50.350.1
(3).
(4).
(1)8/7204
(2)M2
M2
1,849.65 2,334.34 1,849.65 2,448
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TMBA
6 K
2002 K
(1).:160
(2).:1,300
(3).
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(5).7/15
18,467.16 20,443.62 17,026.97 20,443.62
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RTS TMBA
6 K
2002 K
RTS
C
(1).()240
(2).
(3).
(4).:
1,227.01 1,471.56 1,227.01 1,638.08
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6 K
57,098.6
44,107 1.618
0.6181
52,136
2002 K
39,740
(1).6%5.8%(2).(Real)
3012.282512%
(3).PMI48.59
(4).177.3%IPCA3.2%2.28
(1).8/7
44,107 57,098.6 44,107 63,473
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MSCI TMBA
6 K
MSCI
QE
MSCI
2002 K
MSCI
V-3-iii
V-3
V-3
V-2 V-3-i
MSCI 0.34%
(1) EPFR 7 9.47
(2) PMI 7 (PMI) 50.3 6 50.1 49.8
7 PMI 6 50.4 48.5 50 7 PMI 6 51.7 49.2
2011 50 6 50.3 7 50.1
(3) 61.21
BRIC
PMI 50
883 1,100 850 1,200
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CRB WTI CRB TMBA
6 K
CRB
CRB
2002 K
CRB
2009
III-3-ii
III-2
52
13
III-3-iii
CRB
(1)(Asociacion Nacional del Caf, Anacafe)7/30
96.15%
(2)EIA7/26
0.43M0.12%3.65S&P500
(3)7/25
LME
CRBCRB
CRBCRBIII-3-ii
280 295 270 310
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BDI TMBA
6 K
BDI 3
W
M
2002 K
2008 BDI
C 5
13
52
BDI
C
BDI (1)
$ 13,710/Day(2)
$ 9,265 /Day(3)/
/$ 9,381 /DayBDI
BDI
1000 1200 700 1100
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S&P 500 Q2 GDP TMBA
6 K
4
108.04
105.65
2002 K
2009
2013 X
IV-b
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(1) 500 S&P500
(2) EIA 7/26 0.43M 0.12% 3.65
S&P500 (3)(USDL) 7/31
2013 2 (GDP) 1.7% 1.0% 1.1%
GDP 2
100 110 90 120
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FOMC TMBA
6 K
2010 8
1,180.50
0.382x
1,300
1,300
1,300
2002 K
1,500
c M
1,100
c
(1)FOMC 7/31
850
(Fed)(2)(IMF) 7/26 6 0.3
996.4 1.4 130.9 3.8 441.5 0.8 3390.6
(3)(CFTC) 8/2
5,825 28,366
S&P500
1,250 1,350 1,200 1,400
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S&P REITs S&P Case/Shiller TMBA
6 K
S&P REITS 2012
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REITS
(1) 6 () 49.7 47.6 48.7
(2) (FHFA)() 5 7.3% 5.4%
(3) 20 S&P/Case-Shiller
5 12.2% 12.4% 2006 3
1.2%
2006 25%
245 280 230 330
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9 QE TMBA
6 K
2.60%
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0.382x 0.5x
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2.4% 2.74% 2.2% 2.9%
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6 K
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2002 K
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Fed
0-0.25%6 CPI YoY:1.8% CPI YoY:1.6%:9/19
(1).2Q13 GDP YoY:1.7% 1% (2).7 7.4% 2008 12 (3).7
16.2 18.4 (4).7/27 32.6 34.4 (5).7 ISM PMI: 55.4
50.9 7
7 0.1%(63.5%63.4%) 7
Fed 7/31 moderate modestFed
81.40 83.00 81.30 85.25
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PMI 50 TMBA
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(1). 7 PMI:49.8 50 (2). 7 PMI:50.4 49.1 (3). 7 PMI:49.7
48.4 (4) PMI:50.7 48.6 (4) 7 PMI:47 45.4
() PMI 2%
2,700 2,000 130 PMI
REFI 0.5%
1.316 1.338 1.250 1.350
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(1).7 PMI: 57 51 2010 6 (2). 7 PMI: 54.6 52.5 (3).2Q13 GDP
QoQ: 0.6% (4).Q2 Q1 0.9% 7 PMI
1.485 1.533 1.470 1.564
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(2)2Q13 PPI YoY1.2% 1.6% (3)6 MoM-6.9% 5 -1.1 (4)7
YoY-11.8% 6 -10.5% (5)6 YoY3.1% 5 3.0% 2
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0.7680 0.8030 0.7300 0.8150
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0.92 5 0.90 5 (4) 6 MoM-3.3% 5 1.9%
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CPI CPI
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97.550 102.50 93.77 103.73
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