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Transcript of Midterm Essay Question Review of midterm evaluation of teaching feedback Reading takehomes Review...
Outline for today Midterm Essay Question Review of midterm evaluation of teaching
feedback Reading takehomes Review nuclear weapons survey (extra
credit) Facts about nuclear weapons Effects of nuclear weapons Explaining the Cold War Peace A nuclear taboo? Nuclear vs. chemical / biological weapons
Country 1997Strategic
2014Strategic [undeployed]
United States 7,300 1,642[2,800]Russia 6,000 1,643 [1022]
France 482 ~290China 410 ~250United Kingdom 200 ~225Israel 100+? 80-100India 60+? 90-110Pakistan 15-25? 100-120North Korea 0 6-8Syria 0 ???Iran 0 ???
1997: http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/nukestab.html and2014: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat
Strategic Nuclear Weapons: 1997 vs. 2014
Country 1997 2014
United States 4,700-11,700 ~500
Russia 6,000-13,000 ~2,000
China 120 120
Tactical Nuclear Weapons: 1997 vs. 2014
1997: http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/nukestab.html and2014: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat
Decreased likelihood of total war Increased devastation should war occur Increased likelihood of regional wars
Effects of nuclear weapons
Pre-Nuclear World
Go to War Avoid War
// ||
Non-nuclear (by defn) Status quo
// \\ ||
Win Lose ||
MorePower
DeadSoldiers
Power andSoldiers at SameLevel as Before
Nuclear World
Go to War Avoid War
// \\ ||
Non-nuclear (by defn) Nuclear Status quo
// \\ // \\ ||
Win Lose Win Lose ||
MorePower
DeadSoldiers
Dead Soldiers& Civilians
CompleteDestruction
Power andSoldiers at SameLevel as Before
Explaining Cold War PeaceWhat we want toexplain
Possibleexplanation#1
Possibleexplanation
#2
Possibleexplanation#3
Possible explanation#4
Possibleexplanation#5
Period State ofWorld
Nuclearweapons
Fear ofescalation
Memory of WWII
Postwar statusquocontentment
Soviet ideology
Pre1945
War No Less No Dislike statusquo
Against war
Post1945
Peace Yes More Yes Like status quo Against war
Logic of consequences: decisions as cost-benefit calculation from available means
Logic of appropriateness: decisions as "what is right in current situation, given social identity state desires"
Tannenwald: ◦ Bush 1: nuclear weapon use not considered
because not “right” thing for Americans to do◦ There WERE previous nuclear threats
A nuclear taboo?
How do they differ?◦ Ease of acquisition: availability of components
and know-how, known likelihood of success◦ Ease of use◦ Magnitude and type of impacts
Why do we consider some worse than others?
Nuclear vs. chemical and biological weapons